Originally posted by boomer49er:
Play 1:
Fine read and throw, but it was his initial read. The entire play was designed to open up that route across the middle and it worked. His eyes track Waddle through the entire route, it's the only read he's making.
Play 2:
Immediately he has Forristall WIDE OPEN right in front of him and he's looking at it. It's easier than any play he'll get on Sundays. One LB has sat down, the safety over the top is in full backpeddle, and 46 and turned completely around and it running down the field. Hit him there and it's a for sure first down and he's probably going to tack on an extra 15 or 20 in YAC if he doesn't take it to the house. Instead he checks down to Harris behind the LoS and Harris has to make an outstanding play to avoid losing yardage. The outcome of the play is ok, but just an example of Alabama being able to out talent Ole Miss here, not tremendous QB play.
Play 3:
It's an RPO and he throws it to Smith. It's not complicated and everyone can do it.
Play 4:
He misses Smith and it's not close. He's the best football player in college and he can't even bring this ball down. Then, he's incredulous looking at Jones saying "You need to throw it here." This is like shooting a three and missing the backboard high. A little bit of pressure, but nothing he isn't going to have to deal with on the next level. One read here.
Play 5:
He comes off the first read, but like I said that's when he's not as good anymore. He ends up throwing it late, behind, and doesn't have the arm strength to get it in. Oh, and he missed Waddle for a possible TD.
Play 6:
Nice play, but if he had the arm of the other guys he could have placed that at the pylon and it's a TD, not leading a guy out of bounds at the 5. He's not good on the move and he's not got the elite arm you need to be the #3 pick. That should be a TD all day. There was some pressure here, but if he's such a great pocket presence guy he should realize he doesn't need to scramble out. He's got room to step up and throw from a solid base and he's got a guy running wide open down the sideline. Deliver it. He's on that read the entire time.
Play 7:
First, he throws with bad mechanics here and there's no reason to be. No pressure at all. And like JTO says, it happened way more than he'd have expected. It comes in low and he has to take time to go down and get it before he can think about getting up field. Yeah, a completion and short gain, but the other QBs are getting it there a lot quicker and giving that guy a chance to do more. He's look at this guy from the start.
Play 8:
Good play. However, he couldn't have made a bad choice if he'd tried. Waddle was wide open too. Looks to me like this was the initial read.
Play 9:
Air mail. He's lucky he's got the best in the game out there to catch that because that 3rd down conversion is completely on Smith. It's his first read. This he threw it back shoulder on purpose? Why would he throw back shoulder when Smith is running ahead of the DB?
Play 10:
Why isn't that a TD? Because Mac Jones isn't accurate and doesn't have the arm to make it happen. First read, but everybody going deep is open. Should be a TD, but he's lucky it was even a catch.
Disagree with any of that? What do you see?
Alabama has great players and their offensive scheme is designed to open guys up. Jones understands what the offensive is doing and so he knows where the ball is supposed to go. Most times that ends up being open, and open by a lot. However, we have a name for that. System QB. When that first read isn't open his production goes way down, as that little blurb from PFF floating around this thread shows. Also, even on his initial reads he isn't particularly good at maximizing the potential of the play. Often times he delivers a sub-optimal ball that hinders the receivers ability to make gains. Over and over you see his get positive plays, but with outcomes that are CLEARLY not as good as they should have been. I just see Jones as being the clear #5 QB and a lot closer to 6-10 than 1-4. I think he ends up with a career like Alex Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is well traveled and starts as a journeyman, but he's never anybody FQB. He fills the role for a time, and maybe even has a few seasons where the stars line up and he looks good, but the team is either looking for, or already has the next big thing. He's just limited and it shows on the tape. He's not a top 5 pick and I honestly doubt he's worth a 1st at all.
time for a mea culpa
I had no idea there was more throws after the first 4. I thought the video ended at his little speech...that ended up only being "half time"…. Considering throws 4 to 10 are about his weakness, the point of the video was about his issues they are not flattering. That also makes my response to you very off target. I didn't understand how you came to that conclusion when i posted it.
I enjoyed your take on it and appreciate the time you took to reply, and since you asked what i saw.....
1. Clear to me he looks to the flat, before snapping his head to the WR on the cross. 58 second mark he is looking out side. 1 min mark he snaps his head to the cross. You could make an argument he was just locking the safety with his eyes....but it looks like a second read to me.
2. I am not going to even guess what the pass progression is since people that end up "open" might not even be in the progression. I think we both agree this was not his 1st read, it was a check down due to the pressure in his face. I think the real knock on him this play, was he appeared to overreact to the pressure in his face.
3. Agreed, that was likely a pre-snap read and the second he got open the ball was out. I also think any QB currently on the 49ers could have done that.
4. His head turned so late, its hard to say if it was one read or two, he had two targets in the same area at different depths, Could have been one read and he was looking the safety off, either way I suspect he wanted the ball were only his guy could get it. Ideally we would want that low and outside, not high and outside. Could it be the wrong rout? maybe...but it was dangerous.
5. I think it was 2 maybe 3 reads ( or two and trying to tie up the defense with eyes). He was under pressure again, and missed the pass.
6.I think this was his 1st read, I think the play went to hell (Again pressured) and he was lucky to get the ball off. JTO thinks it should have been a TD, you think it should have been a TD. I would have understood if it was sack. We have enough bombs from Jones to know he can hit them.
7. 3 step drop first read poor ball placement.
8. Looks like it could have been first read or second read, I think second because you can see his head move before the throw, but it could have just been disguising the play with his eyes.
9. I agree first read. His guys are in a bunch and you can see his head turn outside, but i think that's just the byproduct of slow motion. Maybe he looked at that the guy coming in, but im pretty sure your right first read, in fact the whole point of that play might have been for that throw. (and yes he was lucky)
10. There was only 2 options on that play, and he might have looked at one before the other....either way BOTH of them are a TD with a better throw. That play would likely never work in the NFL, it clearly would never work thrown the way it was thrown.
I agree with your point on talent, Mac would be much easier to scout if he had less talent around him. You would know more what is him and what is the talent. I think taking a moderately gifted QB from the most talented team in college IS RISKY. I like Mac, and I would love for Mac to be on the 49ers....but unless the guy is Tom Brady 2.0 you cant justify the Draft capital. Maybe his brain is as amazing as it its being sold...but that is ALOT of picks.
I also agree about the first round pick part. Drew Brees was a big time bill Walsh favorite, and we needed a QB at that time. I think Jones is pretty similar with less arm, but better touch, a second round kind of guy. Brees had that ability to hit people in motion that Mac really does well at. Mac's one major trait above many other QBs, is that ability to put the ball 10 yards ahead of the player in stride... Much like Brees did. Maybe you think he is a third round talent, but your ready to drop a second on him because the third round is so far away. I cant help but think if the 49ers took him at 12, we would all kind of wonder....could we have not traded back some for him?
Hindsight tells us Drew Brees for 3 first would have been a steal. 3 first for Brady would have been a steal...but you are left with only a "hof" career being what could justify the trade for picks. That really isn't fair for Fields, Mac or Lance.
