Week 14 - 2014: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Well, that's that.

1) Kap: That was tough to watch. It almost felt to me that his spirit was broken in the loss to Seattle. I think the weight of the season, the off-field issues, and the media scrutiny are finally really getting to him. He's in his own head too much. He's also not helping himself in his interviews. They simply INCREASE the scrutiny.

When he started in 2012, he was an amazingly accurate downfield passer. Just off the top of my head I can remember throws to Kyle WIllimas vs the Bears, Vernon Davis vs the Packers, and Delanie Walker vs the Saints. In that season he was statistically the best passer in the NFL on passes over 20 yards.

That's all gone now. He's overthrowing passes he used to deliver perfectly. Is it teams figuring him out? Is it the lack of deep threats? Is it scheme. More on that later, but he obviously has a huge hand to play in this. In short...NOW I think he's regressing. I didn't believe it until yesterday, but I think the Seattle loss and scrutiny afterward has broken him. Am I giving up on him? Not by a long shot.

I heard on the radio last night peeps saying we've seen Kap maxed out. He can't go any further than this. I think that's HALF true. I think we've seen the best Kap can be IN THIS OFFENSE.



2) Scheme: So that last line about Kap takes me into what I think a big part of the problem is, and why there needs to be a change.

Harbaugh had a reputation coming in that he could mold QBs. He's done it with Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck. While here he did the same with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. It all started tho with a BYU transfer to USD named Todd Mortensen. Why do I bring this up? Something I read WAY back when Harbaugh was hired has stuck with me these last 4 years and it was just screaming loudly in my skull yesterday.

Here is one of the articles written back then.

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/harbaughs-first-quarterback-says-the-offense-is-the-key/

Harbaughs offense is QB friendly (as in, makes playing QB easier). That's one of the big reasons every QB who has run it has had success. It is based on the idea that you can make playing QB easier by making the decisions more clear cut. More defined throws. How do you do that? Through numerous personal packages, lots of motion, and waiting until the last second to snap the ball to force defenses to declare. This allows the QB to know where he's going to go with the ball BEFORE THE SNAP. To further clarify the read and open space, play action off a strong, inventive run game that keep people guessing forces defenses to keep extra men in the box and play on their heels

One of the criticisms of Kap is that he sticks to his presnap read. Well, there is a reason. That's what he's been trained to do. The throw to Crab on 3rd and long that got converted yesterday was a good example. Crab was the only target in the pattern and everyone else was just there to block. The problem here though is multiple.

First, defenses now know all this. They know that they can't declare their intentions until AFTER the snap or JUST before. You will at times see safeties bail out LATE on the play clock. This is why. This is also why you see Kap married to his presnap read and nearly fall into a trap when the coverage changes POST snap.

Second, since there are no hot routes and little post snap decision making, the routes themselves while SOMETIMES creative, are usually really basic.

Third, when the run game struggles and you use less play action (ALOT less this year) it means there is less space because they don't respect the run as much as they did. Those teams have seen all the runs now and are no longer playing on their heels. They are playing downhill. Bruce Miller alluded to this last week when he said that defenses aren't responding to plays the way they expect them to...the run AND pass schemes have been figured out and Harbaugh/Roman aren't able to counter.

I want to be very clear...I'm not trying to scapegoat Kap here. He's played HORRIBLY over the last 2 weeks. What I'm saying though is that the problem goes FAR deeper than Kap and IMO won't get better unless a change is made in the offensive system.

Does this mean if you run a more conventional offense that Kap will immediately start playing like an all-pro? Not by a longshot. What it does mean though is that we don't know what he can do till he is asked to play more conventionally.



3) Vernon: I think he may very well get his new contract next season...for about 1/3rd as much as he's currently scheduled for and for another team. Kap overthrew him, but he is making almost no effort for the ball. The best TEs in the game have a large catching radius. Vernon has almost none. If its not right on him, it will be incomplete.



4) ILBs: Exposed all day in coverage. Ouch. Need the big boys back next year.



5) Pass rush: Non-existent. Penn was glued to Aldon all day. Never thought I'd see that. Carr sitting back there all day + coverage lacking from LBs = bad mojo.



6) Youth: I really want to start seeing the youth play moving forward. This team is about to have a sizable overhaul. Play Tank. Play Patton. Play Ellington. Play Hyde. Its time to see what we have.



7) O-Line: Yet another injury at Center. Davis still not playing. Iupati and Boone underperforming. Jeez. I'm just hoping at this point that Kap is still alive at the end of the year.



8) Bruce Miller: Just keep the guy on the field people. Good things happen.



9) Playoffs: The playoffs are a fantasy. Its not gonna happen. There is a part of me though that is actually OK with it. I'm sure the team will give a full effort to see if they can somehow, someway salvage the season, but I actually wasn't too upset yesterday. Not nearly as upset as I thought I'd be. Why? It was almost like a calming effect. It's done. It's over. No more will they or won't they. No more watching the records of the Seahawks, Cards, Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions. Now I can focus on the future.



10) The future: Ya know what the best thing is about sports? There is always another game. There is always another season. There is always something to look forward to. In some ways, the release of this season is bliss. No more "will they get it together and make a run"? No, they won't. Now its about looking forward. Now its wondering what they might get for Harbaugh. Now its wondering who the next coach might be. Now its wondering how this team adjusts minus Gore, Crab, Iupati and probably a few others.

I know this is a rough time and we had a decade of down times before Harbaugh. I for one though will be happy that I won't have the daily stress of "will he stay or will he go".

I found myself looking at draft sites this morning....something I used to do around this time pre-Harbaugh.

Here's the thing tho...as depressing as this year has been, there is and still will be ALOT of talent on this team moving forward. This won't be a ground up rebuild. This will be about finding a coach who can maximize the talent. This will be a team with talent, money, a great facility, and a warm climate...all things that are very attractive to coaches and players.

While it was tough to see the Niners tank like that to the freakin' Raiders...something about the loss has really made it easier at this point to deal with the rest of the season. I have no expectations. There is no stress.

not sure why it took until yesterday to see he has regressed. its been evident a lot of this season. so many passes this year he has missed and if you're off by a foot or two in a given direction that throws everything off. also not a fan of his roll out of the pocket on 1st and 10 and take a sack for an 8 yard loss when the sideline is right there and all you have to do is dump it out of bounds at the line of scrimmage. things like that are telling.

I turned the TV off in the 2nd quarter after our DIVA for a QB couldn't get the play in time for another "delay of game" and tried calling a TO.

Sorry guys, I really am not being sarcastic, but this says it all, after 10 weeks and last year, and we're still struggling to get a play off, there really is a BIG TIME problem..

As talented as Kaep is, he is just not responding to being on the bad end..

and I really believe that the only way to see the old Kaep, is if we go back to the Pistol Offense and have him run around and not worry about getting injured..

The O line is freaking awful. I don't know if Kaepernick can be fixed or if he is just broken. Vernon's career as a Niner is surely over. There needs to be a major rebuild on the O. Nothing here that hasn't been building all season. And Roman must go. At the very least while the O is self destructing I would expect to see some evidence that we were trying to deal with it, to adapt the play calling to suit what we had on O. I didn't see that and haven't all year.

Well said with #10. F this season. Something about this past offseason didn't feel right and it seemed like whatever successes that this season brought would be 'despite the odds', which just makes something so hard to do (win it all) even harder. I think there will be many coaches that would like to come here and take this 49er head coaching job. Time to retool and reload, not rebuild.

Originally posted by 9moon:
I turned the TV off in the 2nd quarter after our DIVA for a QB couldn't get the play in time for another "delay of game" and tried calling a TO.

Sorry guys, I really am not being sarcastic, but this says it all, after 10 weeks and last year, and we're still struggling to get a play off, there really is a BIG TIME problem..

As talented as Kaep is, he is just not responding to being on the bad end..

and I really believe that the only way to see the old Kaep, is if we go back to the Pistol Offense and have him run around and not worry about getting injured..

Yep. Hyde as RB. No FB. 3 and 4 wide. Lighter and more athletic OL. Perhaps Kap can retrieve his mojo. He would be average at least. With a great defense, that's all that's needed.

man that was depressing

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Yep. Hyde as RB. No FB. 3 and 4 wide. Lighter and more athletic OL. Perhaps Kap can retrieve his mojo. He would be average at least. With a great defense, that's all that's needed.

A lot of the bolded. Power running is nice, but the tradeoff of having lumbering Olinemen has haunted this team enough.

Originally posted by thl408:
Well said with #10. F this season. Something about this past offseason didn't feel right and it seemed like whatever successes that this season brought would be 'despite the odds', which just makes something so hard to do (win it all) even harder. I think there will be many coaches that would like to come here and take this 49er head coaching job. Time to retool and reload, not rebuild.

That's what I'm saying.

Its like they ALWAYS have something over their heads going back to even last years offseason.

Crab. Aldon, Bowman, Aldon again. Harbaugh drama. Always SOMETHING going on hanging over the team.

There is just a part of me that wants to stop, start over a bit, get our bearings...and make another run at it. No playoffs means the postseason starts a month earlier. No All-Pro LB blowing up his knee in January.

Originally posted by Hitman49:

not there yet, wait until we get wrecked 52-0 this week

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Yep. Hyde as RB. No FB. 3 and 4 wide. Lighter and more athletic OL. Perhaps Kap can retrieve his mojo. He would be average at least. With a great defense, that's all that's needed.

A lot of the bolded. Power running is nice, but the tradeoff of having lumbering Olinemen has haunted this team enough.

Well Iupati will likely be gone. We'll get to see Brandon Thomas next year. Kilgore will be back.

Totally agree with point 2. Kap deserves criticism for his poor play, but most of his critics do not understand the concepts this offense is built on. He's a single read QB because this offense handcuffs him to be one. Expecting him to go through progression reads is impossible. You cannot operate outside the parameters of the offense. There are no progressions, and this was the case with Alex as well. Only difference is that this offense is 4 years old, defenses adapted, and this philosophy has been exposed for the gimmick it is. Harbaugh is incapable of changing the offense, he's married to it, and that's why management is about to show him the door.

Sad but not surprised. Crazy way to go. Dodnt get mad watching it all fall apart it was so obvious it was coming couldnt be in denial anymore.

The ideal move is to brimg in a senior consultant to assist harbs roman manage game time strategy then promote roman to a design role.

Needs to be done tpmorrow.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Sad but not surprised. Crazy way to go. Dodnt get mad watching it all fall apart it was so obvious it was coming couldnt be in denial anymore.

The ideal move is to brimg in a senior consultant to assist harbs roman manage game time strategy then promote roman to a design role.

Needs to be done tpmorrow.

What makes you think Harbaugh is just going to let some new guy walk in and start assisting them!? lol