Week 14 - 2014: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Well done, Marvin. Good comments about Harbaugh's system. It will be interesting to see if it works elsewhere, and if he is capable of modifying it successfully.

#6 for sure, yes, bring on the youth!

Originally posted by English:
The O line is freaking awful. I don't know if Kaepernick can be fixed or if he is just broken. Vernon's career as a Niner is surely over. There needs to be a major rebuild on the O. Nothing here that hasn't been building all season. And Roman must go. At the very least while the O is self destructing I would expect to see some evidence that we were trying to deal with it, to adapt the play calling to suit what we had on O. I didn't see that and haven't all year.

1. The offensive line is the major weakness on this team. They've been exposed all season long and it's getting worse. Now granted much of this is because we can't complete any pass routes with consistency so the opposing team is loading the box and teeing off so it's NOT all on the Oline. But regardless, they stink.

2. Vernon didn't get his pay raise so he took his ball and went home. His poor attitude has had a ripple effect thru the entire morale of the team. Look at Crabtree, he's Vernon Davis x 2. Time to get rid of the cancer. Only problem is these two are not easily replaced.

3. Greg Roman. He's a master of the run game. In order to pull this off, he'll need a top tiered RB with a good offensive line. I don't think he has a clue on how to design passing routes that can alleviate pressure and get the opposing defense out of the box.

4. Colin Kaepernick. See #3. We have a chicken/egg syndrome going on here. Does Roman shy away from quick hitting "pressure beating" throws because CK can't make them? At this juncture, I'm not sure CK can make the throws. It's a mess folks! Colin is lost at sea without a life boat.

Bay Area Sports Guy ‏@BASportsGuy

"Kaepernick is 4-24, 76 yards, 4 INT on passes downfield of 10+ yards over the last two weeks. Good for a passer rating of 0.7" - @PFF_Jeff

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Well, that's that.

1) Kap: That was tough to watch. It almost felt to me that his spirit was broken in the loss to Seattle. I think the weight of the season, the off-field issues, and the media scrutiny are finally really getting to him. He's in his own head too much. He's also not helping himself in his interviews. They simply INCREASE the scrutiny.

When he started in 2012, he was an amazingly accurate downfield passer. Just off the top of my head I can remember throws to Kyle WIllimas vs the Bears, Vernon Davis vs the Packers, and Delanie Walker vs the Saints. In that season he was statistically the best passer in the NFL on passes over 20 yards.

That's all gone now. He's overthrowing passes he used to deliver perfectly. Is it teams figuring him out? Is it the lack of deep threats? Is it scheme. More on that later, but he obviously has a huge hand to play in this. In short...NOW I think he's regressing. I didn't believe it until yesterday, but I think the Seattle loss and scrutiny afterward has broken him. Am I giving up on him? Not by a long shot.

I heard on the radio last night peeps saying we've seen Kap maxed out. He can't go any further than this. I think that's HALF true. I think we've seen the best Kap can be IN THIS OFFENSE.



2) Scheme: So that last line about Kap takes me into what I think a big part of the problem is, and why there needs to be a change.

Harbaugh had a reputation coming in that he could mold QBs. He's done it with Josh Johnson and Andrew Luck. While here he did the same with Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick. It all started tho with a BYU transfer to USD named Todd Mortensen. Why do I bring this up? Something I read WAY back when Harbaugh was hired has stuck with me these last 4 years and it was just screaming loudly in my skull yesterday.

Here is one of the articles written back then.

http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/harbaughs-first-quarterback-says-the-offense-is-the-key/

Harbaughs offense is QB friendly (as in, makes playing QB easier). That's one of the big reasons every QB who has run it has had success. It is based on the idea that you can make playing QB easier by making the decisions more clear cut. More defined throws. How do you do that? Through numerous personal packages, lots of motion, and waiting until the last second to snap the ball to force defenses to declare. This allows the QB to know where he's going to go with the ball BEFORE THE SNAP. To further clarify the read and open space, play action off a strong, inventive run game that keep people guessing forces defenses to keep extra men in the box and play on their heels

One of the criticisms of Kap is that he sticks to his presnap read. Well, there is a reason. That's what he's been trained to do. The throw to Crab on 3rd and long that got converted yesterday was a good example. Crab was the only target in the pattern and everyone else was just there to block. The problem here though is multiple.

First, defenses now know all this. They know that they can't declare their intentions until AFTER the snap or JUST before. You will at times see safeties bail out LATE on the play clock. This is why. This is also why you see Kap married to his presnap read and nearly fall into a trap when the coverage changes POST snap.

Second, since there are no hot routes and little post snap decision making, the routes themselves while SOMETIMES creative, are usually really basic.

Third, when the run game struggles and you use less play action (ALOT less this year) it means there is less space because they don't respect the run as much as they did. Those teams have seen all the runs now and are no longer playing on their heels. They are playing downhill. Bruce Miller alluded to this last week when he said that defenses aren't responding to plays the way they expect them to...the run AND pass schemes have been figured out and Harbaugh/Roman aren't able to counter.

I want to be very clear...I'm not trying to scapegoat Kap here. He's played HORRIBLY over the last 2 weeks. What I'm saying though is that the problem goes FAR deeper than Kap and IMO won't get better unless a change is made in the offensive system.

Does this mean if you run a more conventional offense that Kap will immediately start playing like an all-pro? Not by a longshot. What it does mean though is that we don't know what he can do till he is asked to play more conventionally.



3) Vernon: I think he may very well get his new contract next season...for about 1/3rd as much as he's currently scheduled for and for another team. Kap overthrew him, but he is making almost no effort for the ball. The best TEs in the game have a large catching radius. Vernon has almost none. If its not right on him, it will be incomplete.



4) ILBs: Exposed all day in coverage. Ouch. Need the big boys back next year.



5) Pass rush: Non-existent. Penn was glued to Aldon all day. Never thought I'd see that. Carr sitting back there all day + coverage lacking from LBs = bad mojo.



6) Youth: I really want to start seeing the youth play moving forward. This team is about to have a sizable overhaul. Play Tank. Play Patton. Play Ellington. Play Hyde. Its time to see what we have.



7) O-Line: Yet another injury at Center. Davis still not playing. Iupati and Boone underperforming. Jeez. I'm just hoping at this point that Kap is still alive at the end of the year.



8) Bruce Miller: Just keep the guy on the field people. Good things happen.



9) Playoffs: The playoffs are a fantasy. Its not gonna happen. There is a part of me though that is actually OK with it. I'm sure the team will give a full effort to see if they can somehow, someway salvage the season, but I actually wasn't too upset yesterday. Not nearly as upset as I thought I'd be. Why? It was almost like a calming effect. It's done. It's over. No more will they or won't they. No more watching the records of the Seahawks, Cards, Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions. Now I can focus on the future.



10) The future: Ya know what the best thing is about sports? There is always another game. There is always another season. There is always something to look forward to. In some ways, the release of this season is bliss. No more "will they get it together and make a run"? No, they won't. Now its about looking forward. Now its wondering what they might get for Harbaugh. Now its wondering who the next coach might be. Now its wondering how this team adjusts minus Gore, Crab, Iupati and probably a few others.

I know this is a rough time and we had a decade of down times before Harbaugh. I for one though will be happy that I won't have the daily stress of "will he stay or will he go".

I found myself looking at draft sites this morning....something I used to do around this time pre-Harbaugh.

Here's the thing tho...as depressing as this year has been, there is and still will be ALOT of talent on this team moving forward. This won't be a ground up rebuild. This will be about finding a coach who can maximize the talent. This will be a team with talent, money, a great facility, and a warm climate...all things that are very attractive to coaches and players.

While it was tough to see the Niners tank like that to the freakin' Raiders...something about the loss has really made it easier at this point to deal with the rest of the season. I have no expectations. There is no stress.

Good s**t Marv. This is the info I was really interested in finding out. Makes all the sense in the world of why we see what we see on the field. The more he's been coached up the worse he's gotten. And it explaines why he's alwyas making the same mistake over and over.

Originally posted by pete98146:

3. Greg Roman. He's a master of the run game. In order to pull this off, he'll need a top tiered RB with a good offensive line. I don't think he has a clue on how to design passing routes that can alleviate pressure and get the opposing defense out of the box.

people actually still believe this? dude is straight up garbage with a capital G

Originally posted by Jcool:

Bay Area Sports Guy ‏@BASportsGuy

"Kaepernick is 4-24, 76 yards, 4 INT on passes downfield of 10+ yards over the last two weeks. Good for a passer rating of 0.7" - @PFF_Jeff

lulz. At this point, it's comedy. Forget the past games, just looking at the OAK game. Again Kap had time on many dropbacks and saw no one to throw to. I can't tell what he's looking at but at some point just throw it to the closest guy in front of you.

Originally posted by susweel:

man that was depressing

Haha. It is kinda...when AB loses hope...we lose hope haha.

It's cool though. I'm in the same spot AB. It was relieving for me and I can't wait till next year when we are healthy and maybe have a better scheme. For now though, 3 games to go.

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Paul_Hofer:
Yep. Hyde as RB. No FB. 3 and 4 wide. Lighter and more athletic OL. Perhaps Kap can retrieve his mojo. He would be average at least. With a great defense, that's all that's needed.

A lot of the bolded. Power running is nice, but the tradeoff of having lumbering Olinemen has haunted this team enough.

Well Iupati will likely be gone. We'll get to see Brandon Thomas next year. Kilgore will be back.

How much of Boone's contract is not dumpable? Gore will retire or be released, Crabtree will be gone on a 1 year deal with another team, Justin Smith is also a possibility. That's a fair chunk of change to be turning over in one season. Perhaps the devil you know may be better than the one's you don't (in FA) and keeping some continuity on the line will help. Iupati has not been the problem this season even if he isn't blasting people as in years past. Boone, however, is playing horribly in relation to his contract. Is this a write-off year and he'll be back to old form next season or is he emotionally moved on from San Francisco?

Originally posted by thl408:
lulz. At this point, it's comedy. Forget the past games, just looking at the OAK game. Again Kap had time on many dropbacks and saw no one to throw to. I can't tell what he's looking at but at some point just throw it to the closest guy in front of you.

Hopefully the closest guy wearing red in front of him next game.

Originally posted by znk916:
people actually still believe this? dude is straight up garbage with a capital G

Pretty much water under the bridge now. Even if he is, you need to be balanced in this league to excel. He's not.

Was looking at draft sites too last night..would be doing that in Jan/Feb the past few years

The most disappointing thing to me was no sense of urgency. I didn't feel like plays were being called as if our season was on the line (which it was). We threw in a couple of different looks (like the Boldin run) which, even though it didn't go for a huge gain, gave me a glimmer that our coaching staff knows how important this game was both for the fans and the season.

Harbaugh and Co are so f**king conservative that it's actually come back to bite us in the ass. I know they don't like to show their hand and really unleash Kap but what good is all that if we don't even make it to the post season. My thing is, get there first, THEN worry about it. That conservatism is holding back players also. Something is clearly wrong with Vernon be it mental or physical. So why isn't carrier playing? In the few shots he's had he's made the most of it. Looney was doing decent enough prior to Boone coming back but even though Boone has been terrible, he's still out there?! Lloyd clearly doesn't have the connection we though he had with Kap so why not give Patton or Ellington some of those snaps? It's not like Lloyd is a valuable special teams player. We can sit him without hurting in some other facet of the game. Stuff like that makes no sense.

I would have liked to see them throw everything they had in the bag at the Raiders but nope. Wishful thinking. Try anything because what we've been doing up until now hasn't worked at all. Just a bunch of the same though.

Kap looked bad but I'm not sure how anyone can look good behind this Oline and in this current system. The Raiders pass rush was in his face all day. People complain about his accuracy but when he's getting hit damn near every play how can he really feel comfortable. The game announcers annoyed me to no end constantly sucking off Carr. They praised him for his poise in the pocket and constantly compared him to Kap. Well of course he looks calm in the pocket... HE HAS ALL f**kING DAY TO THROW!

I'm pretty disappointed with the D. They've been solid but yesterday wasn't their best day. When we needed them the most they have up 3 extremely long scoring drives. I guess I can't be mad considering how well they've done up until now but when we Damn near pitch a shutout (besides special teams and turnovers) to the Eagles, it doesn't make sense that the Raiders of all teams can drop 24 on us.

Martin you're right about this loss almost being a relief. I'm not happy but there is definitely a feeling of weight being lifted off my shoulders. Things need to change. Somethings not right. We got pro bowl players playing like s**t. Not one, not two, but multiple. I'm not implying anything and I have no idea what's wrong but that many players having such a huge drop off at the same time just doesn't seem logical

Good to see your write-ups Marv.

... but I actually wasn't too upset yesterday. Not nearly as upset as I thought I'd be. Why? It was almost like a calming effect. It's done. It's over. ...

After reading the tea leaves and seeing the offense at work, I actually approached serenity about this (the playoffs being a pipe-dream) a while back. Now it's, for me, down to worrying about who the 49ers bring in coaching-wise and player-wise for the future.

He over throws and then short hop passes. That's not a settled qb throwing the ball. That's a qb with too much s**t upstairs to make a good throw. When a qb plays the position naturally with a handle of the offense, he can take his time to make an accurate throw, even with the rush on, he can settle himself before making a throw with accuracy.

Kaep might not be as confident in his zippy arm to make those tight downfield throws as before. Especially after that INT on the first play of the game.

Originally posted by SofaKing:
Totally agree with point 2. Kap deserves criticism for his poor play, but most of his critics do not understand the concepts this offense is built on. He's a single read QB because this offense handcuffs him to be one. Expecting him to go through progression reads is impossible. You cannot operate outside the parameters of the offense. There are no progressions, and this was the case with Alex as well. Only difference is that this offense is 4 years old, defenses adapted, and this philosophy has been exposed for the gimmick it is. Harbaugh is incapable of changing the offense, he's married to it, and that's why management is about to show him the door.

best post that will be in this thrread.