Originally posted by miked1978:Be careful what you wish for. Drafting a QB is a crapshoot and doesn't necessarily mean we will get better. In fact, statistically speaking we would probably end up worse. If you look back at the last 10 years of the draft 33 Qbs have been taken in the first round:
Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston , Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love
How many of those QBs are better than Jimmy? I'm putting 10 on my list and that's being generous IMO. Statistically speaking you only have a 30% chance to draft a QB better than Jimmy G. 70% chance to draft one worse or about the same.
Newton – in his prime
Luck
Goff – up and down, last year I bet you wouldn't have said he was better
Wentz – Has been struggling as of late but I will list him here anyway
Mahomes
Watson
Allen – he's slowly developing into a good QB. Maybe too early
Jackson – hard to say about Lamar. Right now I would say No but he hasn't got any weapons to work with. Might even have the same career trajectory of Kaep but I will leave him here for now
Burrow – way too early but he looks like the real deal
Herbert – way too early but he looks like the real deal
QBs I think are on par with Jimmy:
Bradford – He had some good years but was never healthy
Tannehill – took him 7 years to get to this point. Imagine waiting 7 years for Jimmy. We cant even make it 3
Mayfield – sometimes he's good and sometimes he blows. About like Jimmy I guess
Murray – still too early but I don't think he's good as a passer. What makes him good is running just like Lamar
So if you add those to the 10 above you are looking at around 42% of the time you will draft someone the same or better than Jimmy. 58% of the time you will draft someone worse. Not good odds at all.
I'm not advocating keeping Jimmy or not, I'm just pointing out the odds of getting someone better isn't good. If it was up to me I'd keep Jimmy next year and draft a QB and let them battle it out in camp. If the rookie doesn't win let him sit for a year. We have a talented enough team when healthy to win and to win now. I just wouldn't gamble with a rookie QB and throw it all away.
They should have drafted a FQB to build around.
It is a tough sell to start over at this point with the the great players starting to leave.