"My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team's potential to win as many games as possible in 2021," explains Frelund.
The analytics expert also used past projections, results, and input from coaches, front office executives, and players to understand some of the model's successes and failures, allowing it to get smarter with each season of data.
Head over to NFL.com for a more detailed explanation of the data used for Frelund's Round 1 simulation. What is different about this mock draft is it doesn't have several quarterbacks going within the top handful of selections. Trevor Lawrence is still the top pick, but the next quarterback on the board — Zach Wilson — isn't selected until the No. 8 pick. Justin Fields is selected one spot later, and Trey Lance isn't off the board until the No. 15 overall pick.
In which direction does Frelund's analytics data point the 49ers with the No. 12 overall pick? She sees the selection of former Virgia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley as the best way for San Francisco to increase its chances to win.
"PFF credits Farley with allowing a passer rating in coverage of just 26.8 in 2019 (he opted out in 2020)," wrote Frelund. "My model shows the Virginia Tech product had the best pursuit speed of any available corner in this draft. Combine him with that nasty Niners front, and new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will get off to a great start."
Farley (6-2, 207) recorded 20 tackles, four interceptions, a touchdown, and 12 passes defensed through 10 games as a sophomore in 2019, per Sports Reference, earning first-team All-ACC honors. The circumstances of 2020 have left NFL scouts with just 23 collegiate games to evaluate Farley.
San Francisco has over 30 players still scheduled to become free agents. Richard Sherman, Jason Verrett, K'Waun Williams, and Ahkello Witherspoon are among the cornerbacks slated to test the open market in a couple of weeks.
More San Francisco 49ers News
-
49ers add protection for Brock Purdy in latest ESPN mock draft
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller has unveiled his latest mock draft, projecting each team's potential first-round pick for next year. In this mock, Miller has the San Francisco 49ers selecting at No. 16 overall. However, this placement doesn't necessarily reflect how he expects... -
49ers mailbag: Why isn't Jordan Mason being used more? Has Kyle Shanahan lost the locker room? How can SF fix its issues before Green Bay?
The San Francisco 49ers are hanging by a thread. At 5-5, the team will travel to Green Bay to face the 7-3 Packers. And the 49ers may be playing this game without one of their best players, edge rusher Nick Bosa, who is dealing with a couple of injuries. And then there is the... -
Seahawks nearly pulled off 2019 draft move that might have frustrated 49ers for years
In 2019, the Seattle Seahawks selected wide receiver DK Metcalf with the No. 64 overall pick in the NFL Draft. However, if their original plan had worked out, Metcalf wouldn't have been the only rookie wideout headed to the Pacific Northwest that year. According to ESPN's Adam... -
Insider can envision 49ers targeting this defensive coach in the offseason
Despite the defense's struggles, the San Francisco 49ers have publicly supported defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen throughout the season. However, those endorsements only carry so much weight. The 49ers took a similar stance last season with Steve Wilks, whose time in Santa...