Gruden, of course, has yet to post a winning record since becoming the Raiders' head coach in 2018. On the other hand, Shanahan has taken the 49ers to a Super Bowl and was on the cusp of a championship during the 2019 season. But, of course, that was his one winning season during his four-year tenure so far.
Still, Seifert believes both coaches are probably safe. The 49ers will likely be much-improved, and more closely resemble their 2019 counterparts than the injury-ravaged 2020 version of the team, assuming they avoid the horrific luck they endured last season.
"In San Francisco, Kyle Shanahan is entering his fifth season as the 49ers' coach," wrote Seifert. "He has made the playoffs once, as part of a very deserved Super Bowl run, and lost at least 10 games each in the other three."
There is one concern, though—the quarterback situation. A transition from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance is on the horizon. Maybe it doesn't happen until mid-season or even after the season. But it will happen, eventually. The uncertainty adds a complicated variable to any 2021 predictions for the team.
"FPI likes the 49ers' postseason chances much better than the Raiders', giving them a 68.1% chance to get there," Seifert continued, "but a looming quarterback transition from Jimmy Garoppolo to rookie Trey Lance makes that a tenuous projection."
San Francisco traded several future picks to move up to draft Lance at No. 3 overall. The 21-year-old quarterback has added some excitement about the team's future. The present belongs to Garoppolo, though. He will likely be the Week 1 starter. What happens after that is anyone's guess, making forecasting the team's season challenging.
CEO Jed York showed his trust in Shanahan by signing him to a contract extension last year, ensuring the coach remains with the 49ers through the 2025 season. General manager John Lynch also received an extension through 2024, ensuring the two remain tied at the hip for at least the next four seasons.
Added Seifert: "The 49ers are clearly committed to [Shanahan] for the long term."
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