The San Francisco 49ers will try to shake off a frustrating loss and get their first home win of 2021 when Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks come to town for their first divisional match up of 2021. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.


Seattle Seahawks


The Seahawks have dropped two straight, including an overtime loss at home to the Tennessee Titans in Week 2 and a 17-30 loss as a road-favorite at the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.

After three weeks, Seattle ranks 7th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at 12.2 percent, 3rd in offensive DAVE at 16.4 percent with a 3rd ranked offensive pass DVOA at 57.4 percent and 2nd ranked offensive rush DVOA at 11.0 percent. The Seahawks defense is rated 24th in defensive DAVE at 4.1 percent with a 27th rated defensive pass DVOA at 30.8 percent and 18th rated defensive rush DVOA at -10.2 percent.

Russell Wilson is 4th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 327 and 16th in total QBR at 55.6 with 7 touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a 73.3 completion percentage. Seattle's offensive line is 4th in run blocking with 4.93 adjusted line yards and 25th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 8.4 percent. The Seahawks' defensive line is 16th against the run with 4.23 adjusted line yards and 20th with an adjusted sack rate of 5.9 percent.


The Seahawks have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 1.9 and are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 to the over/under. Marquise Blair, Kerry Hyder Jr., Rashaad Penny, D'Wayne Eskeridge, Brandon Shell and Benson Mayowa are questionable for Week 4.

San Francisco 49ers


The Niners appeared ineffective and flawed on both sides of the ball in Week 3 in their home opener, losing in the last second to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers by the score of 28-30 in a game where they trailed and appeared to be the inferior team for most of the game.

After three weeks, San Francisco ranks 12th in total DAVE at 8.4 percent, 11th in offensive DAVE at 3.5 percent with a 11th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 30.1 percent and 7th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -6.7 percent. The 49er defense is rated 9th in defensive DAVE at -4.4 percent with a 16th rated defensive pass DVOA at 12.5 percent and 16th rated defensive rush DVOA at -10.5 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 13th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 191 and 14th in total QBR at 56.9 with 4 touchdown passes, 1 interception, 1 fumble lost and a 68.8 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 15th in run blocking with 4.16 adjusted line yards and 12th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 5.9 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 14th against the run with 3.97 adjusted line yards and 21st with an adjusted sack rate of 5.7 percent.

The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.6 and are 1-2 ATS and 2-1 to the over/under. K'Waun Williams is out, George Kittle, Josh Norman and Elijah Mitchell are questionable for Week 4.


Prediction


Handicappers often suggest that teams are never as bad as their worst game or as good as their best game, urging caution from letting recency bias influence perception, but it is hard to feel confident in San Francisco's injured secondary against Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, especially at Levi's where the Seahawks are 6-1 ATS since 2014.

Sure, the Niners have won some big games at Levi's but during Kyle Shanahan's tenure the 49ers are 13-19-1 ATS at home and 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite. The Seahawks have lost two straight and will be desperate for a win and we can only consider taking the points with the road team if forced to pick a side.

With Josh Norman requiring hospitalization after coughing up blood with bilateral bruised lungs and K'Waun Williams out this week, San Francisco's secondary is ripe to be picked apart by Wilson and we expect Seattle to put up points. On the other side of the ball, Seattle's defense has been getting gashed over the past two weeks and we expect an embarrassed Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo to prove their offensive potency in Week 4.
The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 contests between these teams and we expect points on Sunday. This line opened at 50 and has been moving steadily. We locked it in at 51 but it has continued to rise, currently sitting at 52.5 at some books, suggesting that this number may get bigger throughout the week.

Pick: Over 52

Season ATS: 2-1
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