The San Francisco 49ers took a step back in Week 13, accumulated more injuries and proved unable to get the monkey off their back in terms of being owned by their division rival from the Pacific Northwest. Now the Niners will go on the road to the cold weather of the Eastern time zone to face a Cincinnati Bengals team that is also coming off of an ugly loss and fighting for a playoff position. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.


Cincinnati Bengals


Joe Burrow was sacked six times and intercepted twice and the Cincinnati Bengals fell to 7-5 after getting dominated at home in a 22-41 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

After thirteen weeks, Cincinnati ranks 20th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -5.6 percent, 23rd in offensive DVOA at -5.9 percent with a 24th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 1.9 percent and 11th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.5 percent. The Bengals defense is rated 15th in defensive DVOA at 0.4 percent with an 18th rated defensive pass DVOA at 8.7 percent and 11th rated defensive rush DVOA at -13.6 percent.

Joe Burrow is 23rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 12 and 19th in total QBR at 48.7 with 23 touchdown passes, 14 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 68.7 completion percentage. Cincinnati's offensive line is 10th in run blocking with 4.41 adjusted line yards and 27th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 8.4 percent. The Bengals' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.58 adjusted line yards and 12th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.8 percent.


The Bengals have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of -0.5 and are 6-6 ATS and 6-6 to the over/under.

Logan Wilson is out, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow, Tyler Shelvin, Trey Hopkins, Riley Reiff, Darius Phillips, Khalid Kareem, Chris Evans, Mike Thomas, Chidobo Awuzie and Markus Bailey are questionable for Week 14.

San Francisco 49ers


With the disappointing 23-30 loss to the Seattle Seahawks where the 49ers were unable to score a single point in the second half, San Francisco is now out of contention for a division title and have put their chances at the playoffs in jeopardy.

San Francisco ranks 5th in total weighted DVOA at 19.2 percent, 4th in offensive DVOA at 13.8 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 34.1.percent and 6th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 2.6 percent. The 49er defense is rated 9th in defensive DVOA at -3.9 percent with a 17th rated defensive pass DVOA at 7.9 percent and 3rd rated defensive rush DVOA at -20.7 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 10th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 631 and 11th in total QBR at 56.3 with 15 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 67.4 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 19th in run blocking with 4.16 adjusted line yards and 17th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.4 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 4th against the run with 3.58 adjusted line yards and 17th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.6 percent.


The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.7 and are 5-7 ATS and 7-5 to the over/under.

Emmanuel Moseley and Maurice Hurst are out, Trey Sermon hit the IR, Jeff Wilson Jr., Jauan Jennings, Fred Warner, Deebo Samuel, Jaquiski Tartt, Trent Cannon and Dre Greenlaw are questionable for Week 14.

Prediction


The Bengals have tallied big wins over division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh (twice), but have they shown enough to be favorites in this spot?

Before the season started, the look ahead line for this contest was 49ers -3.5 and the current line of San Francisco getting 1.5 points may represent an overreaction affected by Cincinnati outperforming preseason expectations and how bad the Niners looked in getting swept by Seattle for the second consecutive year.

But with the Bengals other wins coming against Minnesota, Jacksonville, Detroit and Las Vegas, we see Cincinnati as being slightly overvalued by the market and an inferior team to San Francisco.


Critics may be unrelenting in their judgment of Jimmy Garoppolo, but the reality is that he is playing more efficiently than Joe Burrow and that San Francisco ranks higher in rushing and passing efficiency on both sides of the ball compared to the Bengals.
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS as the home team and 1-3 ATS as a home favorite, and even if San Francisco is without Deebo Samuel for another game, Fred Warner is practicing in full and we see the value in taking the superior team who has been better on the road than at home this season.

Pick: 49ers +1.5

2021 Season ATS: 6-6
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