The San Francisco 49ers lost a double-digit halftime lead, some control over their playoff destiny and possibly Jimmy Garoppolo to injury in defeat on Thursday night football in Week 16 at Tennessee. Now San Francisco is favored by double-digits at home against an improving Houston Texans team in Week 17. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.


Houston Texans


Behind Davis Mills' 254 yards, 2 touchdowns and turnover free play, the Houston Texans smashed the Los Angeles Chargers by double-digits, 41-29, as double-digit underdogs and have now won two straight games as underdogs.

After sixteen weeks, Houston ranks 27th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -22.8 percent, 32nd in offensive DVOA at -24.4 percent with a 30th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -11.2 percent and 32nd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -35.7 percent. The Texans defense is rated 18th in defensive DVOA at 1.2 percent with a 15th rated defensive pass DVOA at 4.4 percent and 25th rated defensive rush DVOA at -4.56 percent.

Davis Mills is 26th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 22 and 30th in total QBR at 31.9 with 12 touchdown passes, 9 interceptions, 1 fumble lost and a 67.4 completion percentage. Houston's offensive line is 32nd in run blocking with 3.28 adjusted line yards and 23rd in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 7.8 percent. The Texans' defensive line is 9th against the run with 4.05 adjusted line yards and 21st with an adjusted sack rate of 6.4 percent.


The Texans have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of -8.9 and are 7-8 ATS and 7-8 to the over/under.

DeMarcus Walker has joined a long list of Texans on IR, Danny Amendola, Phillip Dorsett II and Terrance Mitchell are questionable for Week 17.

San Francisco 49ers


The 49ers offense stalled due to a number of miscues by Jimmy Garoppolo and the secondary was picked apart by AJ Brown in the 2nd half of San Francisco's 17-20 loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 17. Garoppolo suffered a chipped bone and torn ulnar collateral ligament and may not start on Sunday, increasing the possibility that Trey Lance makes his first home start in the NFL in Week 17.
San Francisco ranks 9th in total weighted DVOA at 18.9 percent, 4th in offensive DVOA at 13.9 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 29.7.percent and 5th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 7.8 percent. The 49er defense is rated 10th in defensive DVOA at -4.7 percent with a 20th rated defensive pass DVOA at 8.2 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -23.1 percent.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 10th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 793 and 11th in total QBR at 53.7 with 19 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost, and a 68.5 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 12th in run blocking with 4.32 adjusted line yards and 18th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.5 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 4th against the run with 3.64 adjusted line yards and 6th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.4 percent.

The 49ers have an ESPN FPI of 2.0 and are 7-8 ATS and 7-8 to the over/under.


Azeez Al-Shaair has been announced to be out for the rest of the season, Justin Skule and Maurice Hurst are out, Jimmy Garoppolo is doubtful, Dre Greenlaw, Elijah Mitchell and Talanoa Hufanga are questionable for Week 17.

Prediction


The line for this contest opened at a whopping 15 points but has been bet down to 12.5 and even 11.5, which seems like a lot of points to a team that has won and covered in two straight games as underdogs with Davis Mills improving and making a case to be considered one of the top quarterbacks of the rookie class.

The Texans are 2-1-1 ATS after a win, 3-4 ATS as an away underdog, 4-6 ATS in non-division games and 1-3 ATS in non-conference games. Houston is 2-1 to the over/under after a win, 2-5 to the over/under as an away underdog and have had the final score of their last three games go over the posted total.

San Francisco is 0-3 ATS with a rest advantage, 2-4 ATS as a home favorite, 3-0 to the over/under with a rest advantage, 4-2 to the over/under as a home favorite and have had the final score of their last three games go under the posted total.

This game is off the board at some books and the spread may have moved due to uncertainty about Garoppolo and lingering questions about Trey Lance's ability to win in the NFL.


Though it isn't completely clear how much of his poor play in Week 16 was due to injury, Jimmy Garoppolo threw two costly interceptions, missed badly on a likely touchdown pass yet was still able to do enough to put San Francisco in position to win on the road to a division-leading team during a short week after tying it 17-17 with 2:20 left in the fourth quarter.

While Garoppolo has performed as one of the more efficient quarterbacks and game managers in the league, his performance now and during his Super Bowl season has a lot to do with playmakers like Deebo Samuel -who pretty much did all the work to set up the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter at Tennessee- and Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme.
The last time we saw Trey Lance start a game, the Niners were on the road facing an undefeated Cardinals team that featured a healthy J.J Watt and one of the top defenses in the league. Lance did throw a pick and got held out of the end zone on fourth-and-goal but rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries and put San Francisco in a position to win the game, losing by one score in his first start.

But a lot has changed since that Week 5 loss, including Trey Lance seeing his playing time decreased, but it also may be possible that Lance has practiced and attained a better grasp on the game. Lance has a significant deficit in experience but is without a doubt a better athlete with a more accurate and stronger arm than Garoppolo and we are not going to let recency bias lull us into expecting another impotent performance if Lance gets his 2nd NFL start this Sunday.

The injured player theory posits that the team rallies in the first game after a significant player goes out with injury and reports indicate that some players are excited about the possibility of Lance starting again.

A home game to the Houston Texans in Week 17 is a very different situation than a game on the road at the Arizona Cardinals in Week 5, and if Trey Lance starts we see him possibly having a break out game in his first home start. San Francisco still has signifiant vulnerability in the secondary and looked inept in the last three quarters of football they played, but will have a rest advantage and motivation to secure a playoff position and get the taste of their last loss in prime time out of their mouths.


In contrast, the Texans have been looking good after smashing the Chargers and Jaguars and may be approaching a sell-high position, even more so when one considers that the Chargers and Jaguars rank among the seven worst teams in defensive efficiency with the Chargers ranking dead last in defensive rush DVOA, and it would not be a surprise if the Texans are a public dog in Week 17. Ambry Thomas showed some improvement last week and Davis Mills will not have the same success this week as the past two, making us leery of taking the over despite the low number.

Trey Lance has been described as playing well in practice over the last month and if he gets the start on Sunday we predict that the Niners annihilate the Texans and that Jimmy Garoppolo may never start again for San Francisco.

Pick: 49ers -12.5

2021 Season ATS: 7-8
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