Why Christian McCaffrey has been the 49ers offensive MVP since his arrival

The San Francisco 49ers made a blockbuster move ahead of the trade deadline when they acquired running back Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers for a 2023 second-rounder, third-rounder, and fourth-rounder, as well as a 2024 fifth-rounder.

At the time, the trade was met with mixed emotions from fans and the media, given the position that McCaffrey plays, alongside his injury history and the draft compensation required to get him from the Panthers.

However, on the night of the trade, I highlighted the value that McCaffrey would bring to the offense, as well as why the trade wasn't as expensive as many proclaimed, making it a smart move for the 49ers.

Since then, McCaffrey has played in five games for the 49ers, with the team going 4-1 during that stretch and the lone loss coming when the star running back played on two days' notice.

Looking specifically at the five-game stretch where McCaffrey was fully implemented into the offense, here are the per-game statistics of every top 49ers' skill-position player:

Christian McCaffrey: 13.4 carries, 53.8 rushing yards, 6.2 receptions, 7.6 targets, 51.6 receiving yards, four TDs
Deebo Samuel: 3.3 carries, 17.3 rushing yards, 4.5 receptions, 8 targets, 45.5 receiving yards, 1 TD
Brandon Aiyuk: 4.8 receptions, 6.8 targets, 59.2 receiving yards, 3 TDs
George Kittle: 2.6 receptions, 4 targets, 38.4 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Jauan Jennings: 3 receptions, 4.3 targets, 30.8 receiving yards, 1 TD

Despite being a midseason acquisition, McCaffrey has already taken up a significant load, averaging nearly 20 touches per game, while being a facet in both the running game and the passing game.

While the averages in the run game might not be as high as expected, McCaffrey has faced stacked boxes while rushing between the tackles on significant volume, making it difficult to create explosive plays as the interior offensive line sometimes struggles to move the line of scrimmage in San Francisco's favor.

However, his biggest impact has certainly come in the passing game, where McCaffrey has already commanded the second-most targets per game with 7.6, which is slightly behind Aiyuk's eight targets a game.

When he arrived at the 49ers, McCaffrey was expected to further the rushing attack by bringing in his two-dimensional ability to rush between the tackles and to the outside, which would've served as a strong complement to Elijah Mitchell, who has the same ability, with a preference of between the tackles.

But, McCaffrey's ability to make defenders miss in the passing game, as well as his route-running and catching abilities, were going to provide San Francisco with a receiving threat out of the backfield that they had previously lacked, while giving Kyle Shanahan the opportunity to come out with looks that presented favorable matchups, not only for his new running back, but for players like Deebo Samuel as well.

In his short tenure with the 49ers though, McCaffrey's impact through the air has been bigger than expected.

Statistically, he has been vital, but overall, McCaffrey has improved the play of the quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo, who had been known as a turnover-prone quarterback entering the season, completed 71.5% of his passes with a 7:0 touchdown-interception ratio during the five-game stretch that his new running back was fully implemented into the offense.

What sparked the change? With McCaffrey as a receiving option, Garoppolo didn't rush his progressions, instead going through the entirety of his reads consistently and firing to the checkdown when nothing was available, which had been a struggle in his past when he locked onto reads.

Garoppolo even spoke about the matter, acknowledging to reporters that a secure safety blanket in the checkdown eased the pressure when going through progressions.

"[Christian McCaffrey makes life] a lot easier. A lot easier. All the backs though. I mean, [RB] Elijah [Mitchell] and [FB Kyle Juszczyk] Juice have gotten in there a decent amount too. It's a good group. It's a good group, when you as a quarterback can look at a concept, read it out, and if you don't like it, you know you got an outlet on the backside or whatever it is and that's going to get you a first down. That's a really good feeling," Garoppolo said. "It's a comfort, a blanket, whatever you want to call it, but just having a group like that, that's smart. Christian's awesome and everything, but that whole group, as a whole, has been really impressive this year and I commend them."

There have been instances on third downs where Garoppolo has wisely fired to McCaffrey short of the sticks, rather than forcing a downfield pass, and his running back has been able to get those first downs.

With McCaffrey in the fold, Garoppolo believed it did make decision-making easier to throw passes short of the sticks, understanding that his weapons have the ability to get first downs on those plays.

"Yeah. Yeah, [I'm a little more willing to take the checkdown short of the sticks if I see Christian McCaffrey]. Honestly, Christian for sure, any of these guys. [WR] Deebo [Samuel] gets ball in his hands he's going to get yards. [TE] George [Kittle], [WR Brandon Aiyuk] B.A., [WR] Jauan [Jennings] has made a ton of plays. Our guys are tough to tackle and it makes it tough on a secondary," said the veteran signal-caller.

The statistics back up Garoppolo's beliefs.

In McCaffrey's last five games, he's caught 31 passes for 258 yards. Of the 258 yards, 222 came after the catch, with McCaffrey earning 7.2 yards after the catch per reception.

Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has had a terrific season thus far, leading the 49ers in all statistical categories for a wideout, which is why he was my MVP of the first half for the 49ers.

But, since McCaffrey's arrival, there has been a clear improvement in quarterback play, while the 49ers' offense has averaged 27.4 points per game during their five-game winning streak, as well as 362 yards of offense per game, which are amongst the best in the NFL, hence their top DVOA rating.

Thus far, the running back has proven why he was worth the significant draft capital traded to acquire him and should be a steadfast option for years to come in the San Francisco offense.

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