Today, I wanted to compare two players who have been some of the 49ers' brightest rising stars: TE George Kittle and LB Fred Warner. The question is simple; given a full, healthy season, who does more to help the 49ers win a Super Bowl this year? Whose talents are the most vital to the annual quest for a Lombardi Trophy, and which one can San Francisco least afford to lose?
I chose Kittle and Warner because there's a particular symmetry to the roles they play on the Niners, despite operating on different sides of the ball. Both of them have been arguably the top player at their position in the last few years, with multiple first-team All-Pro selections between them. Both are young stars (under 30) that have helped elevate San Francisco from league laughingstock to perennial contender. And perhaps most importantly, both play less glamorous positions in which they act more as the team's "glue" than being the featured player on that side of the ball.
With that said, let's make a case for each player, and see what we can hope for - and what we might miss - from them in 2023.
LB Fred Warner
2022 stats: 1026 snaps, 79 solo tackles, 1 INT, 2 sacks, 6.4 yards/target, 17 Approximate Value
Warner is, in all aspects, a star. Almost from the moment he was drafted as an unassuming third-round player, he took the reins and became a leader of the Kyle Shanahan 49ers defense. Warner reached a new level in 2020, allowing just 4.4 yards per target, earning the first of his first-team All-Pro selections. His production dipped slightly the following year, but amidst the tumult of the 2022 season, Warner turned it on when the 49ers needed him most, earning his second well-deserved first-team All-Pro. Warner has been the cream of a bountiful linebacker crop in the league; he featured alongside Roquan Smith, Micah Parsons, and Matt Milano amongst the NFL's 10 most valuable players last year by Approximate Value.
More than anyone else, Warner has been a rock. He's played in every single game since he was drafted, logging no fewer than 990 snaps a year in that time, and is one of the surest tacklers in the league. Anything else next year wouldn't just be a disappointment, it'd be a massive shock, one that the Niners would be hard-pressed to deal with. His ability to put wide receivers on an island in the middle of the field, even against the best in the league, is simply irreplaceable. His shutdown coverage in the pass game makes life easier on the secondary, and his prowess in moving sideline-to-sideline against the run makes the line look better. Maybe amongst the 49ers' many threats, opposing defensive coordinators are most afraid of Bosa, but it's my bet that losing Warner is the 49ers' greatest fear.
If there's another level to Warner's already outstanding play, what would it look like? It's true that his turnover stats don't look particularly gaudy, having amassed just 4 picks and 7 forced fumbles in 81 regular season games. But those stats are a bit misleading, since opposing quarterbacks are absolutely terrified to throw to him. Perhaps the biggest area he could conceivably make a jump is in the pass-rushing department, where he has just 6.5 sacks in his career. The value from quarterback pressure from outside the defensive line is the primary reason that players like Micah Parsons are so highly-regarded, and Warner could take strides there. That, of course, is very much easier said than done, especially when Warner already has such tremendous value being a pest on every single down. But if you could guarantee Warner 17 games and another 1,000 snaps, I don't think I'd bet against him doing more truly incredible things out there.
TE George Kittle
2022 stats: 862 snaps, 765 yards, 12.8 yards/catch, 11 TD, 8 Approximate Value
In 2018, when Warner was just settling in to life in the NFL, Kittle was already becoming a star. That was the first of Kittle's three All-Pro selections, the year when the Nick Mullens-led 49ers featured essentially Kittle and no one else on offense. He put up 1,377 yards and 5 touchdowns while establishing himself as the league's best two-way tight end in the passing game and as a run blocker. While he's not a volume tight end like Travis Kelce, Kittle boasts some of the best efficiency in the NFL. He led the league in yards per route run in 2019, and has consistently ranked amongst the top players in that metric since then, largely due to his ability to completely bully defenses with his Yards After Catch ability. The big knock on him has been his availability, as he's endured several absences as a result of his physical style of play, but he's still played in at least 14 games in five of his six NFL seasons.
Where Kittle is missed most is in the efficiency of the offense. Ever since the 2019 squad lost their first game of the year in Week 10 after losing Kittle to a short-term injury, the feel of Shanahan's offense has been completely different without the Hawkeye alum. Arguably, Kittle is a little too often miscast as an additional pass-blocker on critical downs, where he could instead be using his fearsome route-running skills. But as critical a component as he's been to the offense, the 49ers haven't been able to rely on him as much as they'd like from a foundational player. Given the demands of his position and his almost comically aggressive play, how long can he maintain his spot as one of the league's premier tight ends? And with Christian McCaffrey providing much of the same receiving prowess, YAC, and positional versatility that Kittle became known for, will Kittle become expendable once he stops posting Pro Bowl/All-Pro seasons?
If anyone would benefit from having a full, healthy season, it would be Kittle. What the 49ers can do with Kittle as a feature option by himself is, as we've seen, impressive. Surrounding Kittle with the current core of skill players in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, CMC, and Kyle Juszczyk is simply unfair. We could see a version of The People's Tight End that puts up 1,000+ yards and double-digit touchdowns while still being integral to the run game. I don't think it would be a stretch to say that any game with fewer than 30 points by the final two-minute warning would be a letdown. Kittle has been, before, the very best that the 49ers had to offer, and it's tantalizing to think of what could be if we see that again.
Final Thoughts
Kittle was the player that convinced me that the 49ers could actually be contenders when he broke out in 2018. Even with other key pieces like Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Staley, it took seeing Kittle do the impossible as an offensive weapon, especially working out of the tight end position. And though we'd see players like Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey later come in and steal the show, part of me wants to see him display another season so dominant, his greatness simply can't be ignored. In an offensive league, the hype around this 2023 Niners offense would simply be unreal.
But when it comes to options, there are at least ways to replace Kittle's production if or when he's unable to play. I'm not sure the 49ers can say that about Warner, who changes the complexion of the entire defense. The fact that Warner does what he does without being particularly reliant on pass-rush productivity, which is where many of the most valuable defensive players make their money, is crazy when considering the level that Warner already plays at. You can scheme to cover up Kittle, but you just can't avoid Warner. Given that Warner plays every single down, and that the 49ers don't have a clear backup plan now that their linebacker youth movement has matured, Warner will be critical to the 49ers' bid to once again field a top-3 defense. Niners fans are lucky to be able to watch him in action every single week, something that they'll hopefully be able to enjoy for years to come.
Who do you think will be the more valuable player next year? Let us know in the comments below! Be sure to share the most memorable moments from your pick, and keep an eye out for more discussion articles about your favorite players. And as always, go Niners!
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