During the 2023 season, Aiyuk caught 75 passes for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns for an average of 17.9 yards per reception. Those are obviously very productive numbers, to say the least. Aiyuk's statistics during the 2023 campaign placed him among the top echelon of receivers in the NFL. However, a one-season sample size of production at a top-five level does not warrant the level of contract that Aiyuk reportedly desires from the 49ers.
Simply put, to demand a top-five NFL wide receiver contract, it is imperative for Aiyuk to produce at a top-five level for more than one season.
All this is not to say that Aiyuk is not a formidable player. In fact, it is undeniable to any 49ers fan paying attention that Aiyuk has grown and improved in each of his four seasons in the red and gold. Further, there is a lot to be said for the concept of "team fit," and Aiyuk inarguably fits what the 49ers do on offense. However, his current sample size does not run parallel with that of the league's top receivers during the same time span. In fact, since 2020, Aiyuk ranks 17th in receiving yards and 19th in receiving touchdowns – a far cry from top-five production at the position.
While it is also true that some of Aiyuk's contributions to the team are not quantifiable within a traditional box score, the reality is that top-flight wide receivers aren't paid massive contracts due to their run-blocking prowess. More often than not, big-time receiver contracts are awarded based on—you guessed it—receiving stats. And in this critical aspect of the game, Aiyuk is far from being a top-ten producer at the wide receiver position.
The reality is that the 49ers hold the advantage in their current contract negotiations with Aiyuk. They still have him under contract for this upcoming season and are not obligated to extend him this offseason. However, from all accounts, the team would like to reward Aiyuk with an extension, provided the agreed number is a fair one to all involved.
If the two parties cannot come to an agreement this offseason, the 49ers should let Aiyuk play out his current deal and prove in 2024 that he is worthy of a top-ten deal. If Aiyuk replicates his 2023 output, there should be no reason the team wouldn't want to reward him handsomely a year from now. If not, Aiyuk will then be free to test the market and see if another team is willing to pay him what he demands.