Some of you are likely stewing right now...be it for the 49ers stunning lack of offense in the 2014, your belief that Greg Roman is the sum of all things wrong with the game of football, or perhaps because Colin Kaepernick is never going to become the player you want him to be. To those of you stewing: there are reasons that the 49ers have struggled...and none of them can be pinned on one player, one coach or one opponent. That isn't an opinion, kids...it's a fact. The 2014 has been a "perfect storm" of sorts for the 49ers and their coach. Injuries, which had been uncommonly rare in 2011, 2012 and 2013, struck with a vengeance...making the 49ers the most injured team in the NFL. Scheme, which had once been lauded as the strength of the team, became bland...predictable, even. Suspensions and off-field distractions capped what might be the most disappointing season in 49er history. But is this "confluence of misfortune" a reason to shake things up?
What Happened to the Wins?
As it turns out, all of the aforementioned are interconnected. This season, the 49ers have lost Patrick Willis, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams, and Tremaine Brock for much (if not all) of their games. Anthony Davis, Daniel Kilgore, and Chris Culliver have missed significant playing time as well. Care to guess how many teams missing 9 starters for the bulk of a 16 game schedule have ever challenged for a division title? A conference title? A Super Bowl ring?
With some of the 49ers most talented players cooling their heels on IR, injured or suspended, results were tragic...if not predictable. The loss of Daniel Kilgore left the 49ers with a starting C (Marcus Martin) incapable of calling protection schemes...a duty that fell to RG Alex Boone. The loss of Anthony Davis for 9 games meant that Jonathan Martin started the bulk of the season at RT...and that the 49ers simply COULD NOT run to the right (which effectively took the teeth out of their primary strength - the run). The loss of Bowman and Willis meant that the 49ers struggled to cover interior receivers consistently on 3rd and 4th downs. The loss of Dorsey, then Williams, to injury effectively eliminated the 49ers' ability to stop the run without committing 8 defenders to it. The persistent injuries in the secondary meant that on critical late season passing downs, the 49ers were trotting out unheralded players like Marcus Cromartie and Leon McFadden...because that is all that they had left. The net-net of this fabulous disaster was under performance...on both sides of the ball, week over week.
Trade Harbaugh? Fire Harbaugh?
To say that this season has failed to live up to preseason expectations for the 49er faithful would be a colossal understatement. The 49ers have underachieved by every measurable standard...and as one would expect in a "win now" league, the sharks have begun to circle. Some say Jim Harbaugh is destined to be traded (or fired) in the offseason. Some say Colin Kaepernick's (Harbaugh's hand picked QB) best football is two seasons behind him. Some say Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh don't talk. Others say that the team and its players are over Harbaugh's coaching style...and that an acrimonious end to the 49ers recent success is at hand.
The truth of things likely lies somewhere in between the most extreme unconfirmed reports (on both ends of the speculative spectrum)...and likely means there is at least a chance that the 49ers will be parting ways with Jim Harbaugh before the 2015 season. If that is indeed the case, the 49er brass is about to make their biggest mistake since dealing Charles Haley to the Dallas Cowboys (those of us familiar with the 90s remember that this was the final piece in the Cowboy's championship recipe). And like that deal, the rumored trade of Harbaugh reeks of personal prejudice instead of pragmatism.
Why? Because the first question that the York/Baalke brain trust must ask themselves is a simple one: Can they replace Harbaugh with a better coach? Is there a better coach available? Can they win with a lesser coach? The answer to those questions is a simple one...the answer is no. Football coaches aren't paid to be pleasant. They are not paid to be pliable. They are not paid to give soulful, thought provoking interviews. Football coaches are paid to win...and that's it.
Coaches that can win regularly are uncommon. Coaches that win at a historic clip are downright rare. The number of coaches to reach the Conference Championship in each of his first three seasons: just one...Jim Harbaugh. The number of NFL coaches with a winning percentage (over multiple seasons) in the same zip code as Harbaugh: five...in the last century. Replaceability is the principal issue in this tawdry little drama...at least as it pertains to fielding a competitive football team. And make no mistake...it is highly unlikely that there is a coach available right now that can replace Jim Harbaugh...at least as it pertains to winning football games.
The Endgame?
Jim Harbaugh is probably about to coach his last game as the Head Coach of the San Francisco 49ers. When he is let go, justification will likely center around poor team performance, internal strife, off field distractions, or some unforeseen excuse to cover up the fact that Jim Harbaugh is not an easy guy to work with for an extended period. That, in and of itself, is no reason to let him go. At the end of the day, football coaches are not supposed to be cuddly, cute, amiable or friendly. Football coaches are obstinate, brilliant, uncompromising, unpleasant, results driven individuals...especially the good ones. Individuals like that tend to be winners.
The 49er brain trust doesn't see it that way, however...because the 49er brain trust has lost sight of where they were when Harbaugh took over...or how far they've come in the last four seasons. The 49ers went from a laughingstock to Cinderella story in a single offseason. They went from a Cinderella story to a Super Bowl dark horse in a single offseason. They went from a Super Bowl dark horse to a trendy Championship favorite in yet another single offseason...and until the inaugural season at "not nearly loud enough (aka Levi's)" Stadium...that is exactly what was expected of them: Super Bowl or bust. Expectations like that don't come easily...but they can be lost easily. The 49er brain trust is looking for someone who will toe the company line. Someone who won't make waves. Someone who is easy to work with. That someone may or may not win...and that is something that many have failed to consider.
You see, the 49ers are broken. Not broken because of a quarterback that has failed to live up to unrealistic expectations. Not broken because of a coach that isn't particularly chatty with the media. Not broken because of injured players, pouty superstars, or criminal investigations. The 49ers are broken because they have an owner that tweets displeasure about his team's performance on the field. The 49ers are broken because the have allowed the first perennially victorious coach they have had in over a decade to be relentlessly skewered in the media. The 49ers are broken because their front office has leaked rumors of internal strife, which have made the team fodder for the NFL rumor mill. Effectively run organizations do not function that way. Chaos does not breed success.
So when the 49ers go to the well for their next coach, they'll do so as a broken organization. That will be evident to every candidate they interview. It will be apparent to every potential candidate they pursue. And whomever they end up with will be okay with that...which brings to mind a serious question: is there a winner out there who would be okay with that?
I've checked with my magic 8-ball on this...and it replied, "outlook not so good."
