San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers odds and pick - Week 3, 2021

The San Francisco 49ers are undefeated after two road games against NFC opponents. They will welcome the reigning NFC North champion Green Bay Packers to Levi's Stadium for their home opener in primetime on Sunday Night Football. Here, we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.

• When: Sunday, September 26th, 2021, at 5:20 pm (NBC)
• Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
• Line: 49ers -3.5, over/under (o/u) 49.5; 49ers team total over 26.5 (-140) and under 26.5 (-120); Packers team total over 22.5 points (-140) and under 22.5 points (-120); odds from DraftKings sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers got back on track at home by blowing out and covering against the Detroit Lions as 11.5-point favorites to the tune of 35-17, a week after getting absolutely humiliated in Jacksonville by Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints by the score of 3-38.

The Saints defense held Aaron Rodgers to 133 yards passing, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions and limited the Packers to 43 rushing yards and zero rushing touchdowns. The Packers defense allowed 5 passing touchdowns without a sack or interception while also yielding 171 rushing yards on 39 carries for an average of 4.4 yards per rush to New Orleans' offense.

Against the Lions, Rodgers threw for 4 touchdown passes without an interception, with Aaron Jones catching three of those touchdowns while also rushing for 67 yards on 17 carries and a rushing touchdown. The Packers defense sacked and intercepted Lions quarterback Jared Goff once and recovered one of his fumbles while allowing 2 touchdown passes, 246 passing yards, and 108 rushing yards on 19 carries for an average of 5.7 yards per rush.

Linebacker Za'Darius Smith, tackle David Bakhtiari, and safety Will Redmond will not play against San Francisco. The Packers have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) of 1.1, are 1-1 ATS, 1-1 to the over/under.

San Francisco 49ers

Even without Jason Verrett and Dre Greenlaw, the Niners defense proved it is still one of the better units in the NFL, getting strong performances from Fred Warner, Jimmie Ward, Jaquiski Tartt, and Deommodore Lenoir, holding the Eagles to a field goal until the last five minutes of the game in a defensive battle with a 17-11 final score. Jalen Hurts was limited to 190 yards passing and zero passing touchdowns and was sacked twice by Nick Bosa, and Miles Sanders was held to 55 rushing yards on 13 carries and zero rushing touchdowns.

The legion of Jimmy Garoppolo doubters and haters and Trey Lance stans reacted with a quickness to criticize Garoppolo during the first half against the Eagles, calling for him to be benched and for Lance to come into the game, some even blaming fourth quarter injuries on head coach Kyle Shanahan not playing Lance. They refused to give credit to the Eagles defense as a factor in Garoppolo's and the Niners' offensive game plan and output in Week 2.

But cooler, analytical heads forewarned that Philadelphia's defense is an improved, competitive unit that would be challenging to score upon in a game where points would come at a premium. Despite losing more running backs to injury, Garoppolo did what he needed to do to keep drives alive and win the game, a quality that is not lost upon 49ers legend Joe Staley:

JaMycal Hasty will not play against the Packers, while Josh Norman, Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon, and Emmanuel Mosely are questionable. San Francisco has an ESPN FPI of 2.6, are 2-0 ATS and 1-1 to the over/under.

Prediction

We live in an instant-gratification, knee-jerk reaction, what-have-you-done-for-me-lately culture, which is profoundly evident in public perceptions and reactions to Garoppolo as the starting quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers. Instead of appreciating that he just helped the Niners win two road games to start the 2021 season or that Shanahan is 26-9 straight up (SU) and 20-14-1 against the spread (ATS) with Garoppolo and 7-27 SU and 14-20 ATS without Jimmy, critics disparage his passing and tendencies while clamoring for a rookie who is not guaranteed to produce better results than Jimmy.

The reality is that when the Niners are healthy on both sides of the ball, including the full complement of San Francisco's offensive line and weapons, Jimmy has been a successful quarterback for San Francisco, and the Niners have owned the Packers in Levi's Stadium with him as the starter. In his two starts against Green Bay at Levi's, the Niners won 37-8 as 3-point favorites on Sunday night football during the regular season and 37-20 as 8-point favorites in the 2019 NFC Conference Championship. Shanahan's ground attack was the focal point of both of those contests. With the 2021 Niners arguably having a better offensive line than in 2019, taken together with Green Bay's fairly soft run defense that will also be missing its top pass rusher in Smith, there is no reason to believe that San Francisco won't run the ball down the Packers' throats on Sunday night.

On the flip side, when Rodgers has played at Levi's and Fred Warner and Nick Bosa have started for the Niners, the Packers quarterback was held to 104 yards passing and sacked 5 times during the regular season, and sacked 3 times and intercepted twice in the post-season. With the strong showing in Philly, defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans quieted some of the chatter questioning San Francisco's defense after the Lions game. Despite ongoing questions about the Niners' secondary, we expect the 49ers defense to get to and limit Rodgers without tackle Bakhtiari in a similar fashion that the Saints did, and can only consider taking San Francisco if picking a side. We also like the Niners' team total over 26.5.

The line opened at 49ers (-4), but money has been coming in on Green Bay, causing the line to drop to (-3.5). Based on Green Bay being one of the more publicly bet teams and analysts, like the ones in the above video, insisting that Garoppolo and the secondary are liabilities, that San Francisco is overrated and finding all the value in taking the points with the Packers, anyone considering playing the Niners ATS might consider waiting to see if this number gets even smaller.

Pick: 49ers -3.5

Poll

• What is your best bet for 49ers vs. Packers on 9/26/21?
• 49ers -3.5
  64%
• 49ers tt over 26.5
  11%
• Packers +3.5
  9%
• Over 49.5
  9%
• Under 49.5
  4%
• 49ers tt under 26.5
  1%
• Packers tt over 22.5
  1%
• Packers tt under 22.5
  1%
• 703 votes