No one outside the San Francisco 49ers knows what the team has in quarterback Trey Lance just yet. Lance only has four NFL starts under his belt and played only five quarters this year before suffering a season-ending injury.
We won't get an extended look at Lance until his third NFL season in 2023. He'll still lack in-game experience and will need time to develop. It's not the scenario the 49ers envisioned when they sat the young quarterback during his 2021 rookie campaign.
The 49ers surrendered multiple first-round picks, including next year's, for Lance. Last week, the team gave up more draft capital in next year's draft—and a pick in 2024—for running back Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco knows it will be getting compensatory picks, but it won't be too busy in the first two rounds. It was seen as an "all-in" move for a team that believed it had a championship roster. Then the Kansas City Chiefs came into town and dismantled Kyle Shanahan's squad.
It's obviously too early to give up on Lance, and Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't shown much this season to convince the 49ers (or their fanbase) that the plan to transition to the younger quarterback needs to be re-evaluated.
One ESPN writer, Bill Barnwell, suggests a way for the 49ers to acquire more draft capital. It's a suggestion that will likely generate some level of criticism. What if the 49ers opted to trade Lance?
"If the 49ers think he isn't the quarterback they believed they were getting in 2021, the haul they sent away to acquire him is a sunk cost," wrote Barnwell. "There would still be teams interested in acquiring Lance to be their quarterback of the future, even if he struggled with the 49ers."
If Shanahan and company doubt Lance is the quarterback they thought he was when they traded up to make him last year's No. 3 overall pick, there are more significant problems. That would be admitting a massive draft blunder, which could cost jobs.
This scenario would also seemingly leave the 49ers without a starting quarterback unless you are high on rookie Brock Purdy. Garoppolo is set to become a free agent after this season, and San Francisco has tried to replace him over the last three offseasons. They flirted with the idea of signing Tom Brady in 2020, were interested in Matthew Stafford last year before drafting Garoppolo's replacement, and did everything they could to trade him this year.
Barnwell believes the 49ers should bring him back, though.
"In this scenario, which would probably require a deep playoff run and excellent work on the offense, the Niners would re-sign Garoppolo to an extension this offseason," he wrote. "Lance still probably would net a late first-round pick or early second-round pick in return."
Barnwell also suggests that wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk could entice a team to give up some draft capital and hypothesizes a potential player-for-player trade.
Barnwell writes, "I will admit the trade I keep coming back to -- given Atlanta's desire to run the ball and Shanahan's stockpiling of positionless playmakers -- is a swap of Lance for tight end Kyle Pitts. I'm not sure that solves the draft capital problem, but it's fun to argue about."
Regardless of what the ESPN writer suggests, the 49ers will likely stick with their plan of moving forward with Lance as the starting quarterback. Lance is expected to fully recover from his ankle injury in time for the 2023 season.
