The San Francisco 49ers got curb-stomped on both sides of the ball at home in an embarrassing 23-44 drubbing by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7, and have now lost two straight. Will the Niners be able to rebound and continue their regular season dominance over a Los Angeles Rams team coming off of a bye? Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday October 30th, 2022 at 1:25pm PT (FOX)
- Where: SoFI Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- Line: 49ers -1.5, o/u 43
Los Angeles Rams
After losing two straight, the Los Angeles Rams took care of business in a 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers in Week 6 before going on bye in Week 7.
After seven weeks, Los Angeles ranks 23rd in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -6.8 percent, 25th in total weighted offensive DVOA at -10.3 percent with a 24th ranked offensive pass DVOA at -0.5 percent and 23rd ranked offensive rush DVOA at -9.9 percent. The Rams defense is rated 7th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -7.4 percent with a 14th rated defensive pass DVOA at 2.4 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -20.4 percent.
Matthew Stafford is 27th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -3 and 22nd in total QBR at 45.7 with 6 touchdown passes, 8 interceptions, 3 fumbles lost and a 71.4 completion percentage. Los Angeles' offensive line is 32nd in run blocking with 3.73 adjusted line yards and 26th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 8.7 percent. The Rams' defensive line is 19th against the run with 4.56 adjusted line yards and 17th with an adjusted sack rate of 6.7 percent.
The Rams are 2-4 ATS and 1-5 to the over/under. Running back Darrell Henderson and cornerback Cobie Durant are questionable, running back Cam Akers, defensive tackle Bobby Brown III and center Brian Allen are out.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey had 8 carries for 38 yards and 2 catches for 24 yards in his first action as a Niner but it wasn't enough to help the offense prevent Garoppolo from being sacked 5 times or keep up with a high powered Chiefs defense that had its way with San Francisco's defense.
After six weeks, San Francisco ranks 10th in weighted total DVOA at 4.5 percent, 16th in weighted offensive DVOA at 0.5 percent with a 11th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 17.8 percent and 24th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -10.4 percent. The 49er defense is rated 8th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -6.9 percent with a 9th rated defensive pass DVOA at 0.1 percent and 5th rated defensive rush DVOA at -16.9 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 7th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 376 and 25th in total QBR at 41.1 with 9 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 64.7 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 21st in run blocking with 4.33 adjusted line yards and 16th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.6 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.80 adjusted line yards and 3rd with an adjusted sack rate of 8.9 percent.
The 49ers are 3-4 ATS and 2-5 to the over/under. Cornerback Jason Verrett is probable, receivers Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel and defensive tackle Arik Armstead are questionable, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, safety Jimmie Ward and tight end Tyler Kroft are out.
Prediction
With San Francisco coming off of two losses and Kyle Shanahan's ownership of Sean McVay's Rams during the regular season, going 7-1 ATS and straight up since 2019, we would lean with laying the points with the 49ers if picking a side but expect more fight from a rested Los Angeles squad and perceive more value on the total.
The Niners are likely to feature Christian McCaffrey and the run game more, leading to more ball control and a shorter game, but will face the strength of the 2nd ranked Rams run defense. These division rivals feature two top 10 defenses, middling offenses and shaky offensive lines, and their games have gone under the total 6 out of 8 games since 2019.
Pick: Under 43
2022 Season ATS: 4-4