The San Francisco 49ers continue to defy critics, trends and conventional handicapping wisdom by avoiding let-down spots and laying waste to NFL competition, exposing so-called playoff contenders as they did to the Washington Commanders to the tune of 37-20 in Week 16. Can the Niners avoid distractions or complacency when they travel to Sin City to take on the former Bay Area-rival Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17? Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday January 1st, 2023 at 1:05 pm PT (FOX)
- Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Line: 49ers -6, o/u 44.5
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr threw 3 interceptions and was sacked 3 times, now accounting for 9 interceptions in his last 5 games, and the Las Vegas Raiders blew another halftime lead of 7-points-or-more in what seemed like an inevitable 10-13 loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16, though somehow are still alive for a playoff spot in an ugly AFC.
After sixteen weeks, Las Vegas ranks 26th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at -11.0 percent, 15th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 2.6 percent with a 20th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 5.8 and 7th ranked offensive rush DVOA at 5.0 percent. The Raiders defense is rated 29th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -11.2 percent with a 32nd rated defensive pass DVOA at 24.5 percent and 20th rated defensive rush DVOA at -3.9 percent.
Derek Carr is 15th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 421 and 13th in total QBR at 56.2 with 24 touchdown passes, 14 interceptions, 0 fumbles lost and a 60.9 completion percentage. Las Vegas' offensive line is 1st in run blocking with 5.02 adjusted line yards and 6th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 5.6 percent. The Raiders' defensive line is 18th against the run with 4.36 adjusted line yards and 30th with an adjusted sack rate of 4.7 percent.
The Raiders are 7-8 ATS and 7-7-1 to the over/under. Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS as the home team, 3-7 ATS in non-division games, 1-3 ATS in non-conference games, 4-1-1 to the over/under as the home team and 5-2-1 to the over/under after a loss. Linebackers Denzel Perryman, Blake Martinez and Divine Deablo are out, cornerback Rock Ya-Sin, tackle Jackson Barton, defensive end Chandler Jones and running back Zamir White are questionable for Week 17.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco sacked Taylor Heinicke twice and intercepted him before he was replaced by Carson Wentz who accounted for a garbage time touchdown in San Francisco's 8th straight win and 7th straight cover against-the-spread. Brock Purdy passed for 234 yards, including two touchdowns to George Kittle, and an interception, and Christian McCaffrey ran for 46 yards on 15 carries and a touchdown in Week 16.
After sixteen weeks, San Francisco ranks 3rd in total DVOA at 27.0 percent, 5th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 18.3 percent with a 4th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 33.0 percent and 16th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -3.3 percent. The 49er defense is rated 1st in total weighted defensive DVOA at -20.0 percent with a 5th rated defensive pass DVOA at -10.2 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -26.0 percent.
After action in 4 games, Brock Purdy has a DYAR of 200 and total QBR of 67.0 with 8 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, zero fumbles and a 67.0 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 5th in run blocking with 4.65 adjusted line yards and 9th in pass protection with an adjusted sack rate of 6.1 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.65 adjusted line yards and 14th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.3 percent.
The 49ers are 10-5 ATS and 7-8 to the over/under. San Francisco is 7-3 ATS after a win, 9-4 ATS as a favorite, 1-4 to the over/under as an away favorite, 2-4 to the over/under as the away team. Defensive linemen Kerry Hyder Jr. and Kevin Givens are questionable, running back Jordan Mason is questionable, receiver Deebo Samuel and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo are out for Week 17.
Prediction
At this point, we are done getting cute with nuanced handicapping strategy, overthinking things or holding our breath in anticipation of Brock Purdy having his big let down game on the road. The Raiders are a poorly coached team with a quarterback who is turning the ball over like it's radioactive, a porous defense and negligible home field advantage.
The strength of the Raiders offense will be neutralized by the strength of San Francisco's defense and Kyle Shanahan and the Niners offense should be able to pick apart the Las Vegas defense. Even if Las Vegas happens to have a significant lead at halftime, it will not be safe and the backdoor will always be wide open. We are riding the 49ers and this winning and covering streak until the wheels fall off.
Pick: 49ers -6
2022 season ATS: 10-12
