The Dallas Cowboys were supposed to be a big test for the San Francisco 49ers. They weren't. The 49ers improved to 5-0 and are flying high. But even teams that are playing as well as the 49ers are currently playing have the chance for a slip-up.
Enter the Cleveland Browns. On the outside, the Browns don't look like much of a challenge, but when you add a big win on Sunday night, with a team that's coming off of a bye like Cleveland is, then add in some possible rain, and a really good defense, and you have the recipe for an upset.
If the 49ers are going to stay undefeated and move to 6-0, they have to play like they are capable of playing. Here are four keys to victory for the 49ers when they travel to Cleveland to play the Browns:
1. Stay hungry
This means, don't beat yourself. If the 49ers don't turn the ball over and can keep penalties to a minimum, they should be able to improve to 6-0. The Browns have a really good defense (more on them below), but their offense is not good.
According to Nick Wagoner, of ESPN, Cleveland's EPA/offensive play is -0.16. That's good for 31st in the NFL. They're 30th in pass play EPA and 23rd in rush play EPA. So they're not off to the best start. Losing their star running back for the season doesn't help.
Wagner wrote, "They clearly and understandably miss Nick Chubb. To put it in perspective, RB Jerome Ford leads the Browns in scrimmage yards per game (65.8), and that ranks 47th in the NFL. The 49ers have three players averaging at least 75.6." Expect to see more Kareem Hunt on Sunday. He's been eased in by the Browns so far but should start playing more.
The Browns' offense will struggle to move the ball, much less score. The 49ers have been laser-focused this season. If they stay hungry and keep that edge, the Browns will score little to nothing, and the 49ers' offense should continue to put up points.
2. Take advantage of the Browns' QB situation
Who will start at quarterback for the Browns? It's looking more and more like it will be P.J. Walker, as Deshaun Watson has still not practiced this week, and is doubtful to play. In Cleveland's last game, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson started. He threw three interceptions, and the Browns lost to the Ravens, 28-3.
Walker is in his third season and has started 15 games. The Browns are 4-3 in those starts.
Regardless of who has started at QB for the Browns in 2023, the quarterbacks have been under pressure a lot (37.2% of the time), and have been sacked 16 times in only four games (9.8% of dropbacks, which ranks as 5th worst). Part of it has been the fact that the quarterbacks have held on to the ball too long (3.09 seconds, which is second worst in the league). Watson has been especially bad at that, and Thompson-Robinson is a rookie, so you expect him to do so.
If Walker gets rid of the ball quickly, like some teams have done against the 49ers' defense this season, that could help the Browns' offense be more effective. But he will likely be without guard Joel Bitonio and tight end David Njoku, which will make things even more difficult for the Browns' offense.
If the 49ers can shut down the Browns run game, like they do against most teams, it will be hard for Cleveland to have much success through the air, especially if the 49ers build a lead.
3. Slow down Myles Garrett
Miles Garrett has 5.5 sacks to go along with 17 pressures, 13 QB hits, and five tackles for loss. And that's in only four games. He's a force, and will certainly present a problem for the 49ers offense.
According to Wagoner, Garrett's pass rush win rate is 28.1% (sixth in the league). Wagoner wrote, "He prefers to rush from right end (against the LT) and that's where 4 of his sacks have come from this year. But he also will occasionally flip and line up on the other side. He's got 1 sack from left end on 19 snaps there this year."
The Cowboys should have lined up Micah Parsons over Colton McKivitz a lot more than they did. The Steelers did that with T.J. Watt, and he ended up with three sacks and forced a fumble. Will the Browns do that with Garrett?
If they do, he could have a huge impact on this game. The 49ers must figure out a way to slow him down, especially when he lines up on McKivitz.
4. Handle the Browns defensive front
The Browns have a really good defense. They have really solid corners in Denzel Ward (five passes defended, one forced fumble) and Greg Newsome, but their defensive front is what makes them so good. We already discussed Garrett, but the rest of the front is really good, as well, mainly against the run.
Cleveland's defense is only giving up 3.2 yards per carry and is tied for best in the league. The Browns' 69.9% success rate on run plays leads the NFL. Dalvin Tomlinson, Jordan Elliott, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and Anthony Walker are especially good against the run. Owusu-Koramoah is first in the NFL in run-stop win rate at 57.1%.
Cleveland won't be easy to run on, but if the 49ers manage to do it, they should win this game without much of a fight. Or maybe Kyle Shanahan decides to use the passing game to open up the running game, much like Bill Walsh did in the '80s.
According to Wagoner, the Browns "are playing man on 53.7% of dropbacks, 6th most in the league, and giving up a hilariously low QBR of 6.4 when playing it. For context, the next closest QBR allowed in man is Pittsburgh at 29.9." Purdy is great against man coverage, but Wagoner adds that "this is the best CB duo he's faced this year and maybe yet."
The Browns aren't very good against play-action, though. Wagoner wrote, "They're giving up 9.5 yards per attempt against PA, which is 25th in the NFL. Purdy is averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with play action, which is 5th best in the league." We know how Shanahan likes to use play-action and misdirection, and thrives at finding weaknesses in a defense and exploiting them.
One thing to consider is that the Browns have only played four games so far. And in those games, they haven't faced an offense nearly as potent as the 49ers. Still, the Browns' defense is really good, and this will be a stiff test for the 49ers.
