ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) typically simulates the entire NFL season 20,000 times to generate its projections. However, analyst Seth Walder selects just one of these simulations each year to explore the potential outcomes, offering an intriguing—though not entirely relevant—perspective.
This year, Walder focused on FPI simulation No. 515 and delved into the various storylines that could unfold if this simulation were accurate. According to this scenario, the Detroit Lions finally make it to the Super Bowl, defeating the Kansas City Chiefs, the New York Jets reach the AFC Championship Game, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams leads the Chicago Bears to the postseason.
But let's get to the part you're really interested in—how the San Francisco 49ers fared in this simulation. Kyle Shanahan's team wins the NFC West with a 10-7 record, becoming the only team from the division to secure a playoff spot.
"The 49ers were cruising for most of the season, entering the final stretch with a 10-3 record," Walder wrote. "But they slumped at that point, losing four in a row to make the NFC West race interesting. In the end, the 49ers did enough to make the playoffs at 10-7, winning the division by one game over the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, but it was touch-and-go up until the end."
Unfortunately, the 49ers fall short of their ultimate goal—reaching the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season and, this time, winning it all. The ESPN simulation has the top-seeded Lions defeating the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
"But the Niners rediscovered their form in the playoffs and were hitting on all cylinders, demolishing the Cowboys in the wild-card round and taking care of the Buccaneers in the divisional playoffs," Walder continued. "This set up a rematch with the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
"But this time, the Lions were at home and ready to take advantage. Detroit's improved defense forced a Brock Purdy interception on the opening drive, and while the 49ers fought back, the Lions held them at arm's length the rest of the game to prevail 30-24 and reach their first Super Bowl."
It's always challenging to replicate a previous season's success. The 49ers are once again loaded with talent and have Super Bowl aspirations, but as several players have emphasized throughout the offseason, everything in the NFL must be earned. No one cares what you accomplished a season ago.
What do you think about this specific simulation? Leave a comment below.