The San Francisco 49ers are fresh off their bye week and heading to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. They will have some reinforcements, such as running back Christian McCaffrey, who appears set to make his 2024 season debut. If the 49ers want to be victorious, they must stick to the Keys to Victory.
Run The Ball (outside zone)
The 49ers' outside zone run game should be enhanced with McCaffrey returning. The 49ers are predominantly an outside zone run team, with 58% of their plays designed to get outside. The Buccaneers are built to stop the run up the middle with their star player Vita Vea, so the 49ers should like to move the ball laterally when attempting to run.
The 49ers must wear out the interior of the defense early so that, later in the game, they can run the ball up the middle. Expect their power run game to close out the game. If the 49ers successfully run the ball, they can successfully attempt to pass the ball.
The Right Throws
The Buccaneers defense ranks 30th in passing, allowing 255.9 yards per game. They seem to struggle against the pass in short, immediate, and deep all over the field. Their best coverage player is cornerback Zyon McCollum, who has two interceptions on the season but allows 51.2% of his passes to be completed along with four touchdowns.
Brock Purdy and the offense must get into a rhythm early with some quick throws and utilizing his pass catchers over the middle of the field. Expect Purdy to attempt several explosive throws down the field, but he must take what the defense allows and not force the ball into coverage.
Finish in the Red Zone
This season, the 49ers rank 28th in the red zone with a 48.57% succession rate. In 2023, the team completed 68% of its red zone attempts for touchdowns, ranking first in the NFL. With McCaffrey's return, the 49ers should drastically improve in the red zone, starting against the Buccaneers. Since the 49ers are on the road, all scores are welcome, but the 49ers must score touchdowns in the red zone to be victorious.
Stop the Run
The 49ers defense must defend against the Buccaneers rushing attack. Although the Bucs rank 10th in average rushing yards per game, head coach Todd Bowles will utilize his complete running back room. The 49ers' defense must play fundamentally sound by staying in their lanes, filling the gaps, and good ole' wrapping and tackling. Missed tackles could hurt the 49ers' defense and keep them on the field for longer durations of time.
If the 49ers' sixth-ranked run defense eliminates the run, Baker Mayfield would be forced to pass, allowing the 49ers' secondary to play for turnovers.
Third Down Stops
The 49ers rank 24th in allowing third-down conversions, giving up on average 5.6 per game. The Buccaneers rank second in third-down conversions, averaging 6.3 per game. The key to victory is to keep the Buccaneers out of shorter third-down situations.
This game will not be easy. The Buccaneers are aggressive and will take their shots. They are coming off a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (30-24), and despite their adversity, they will give the 49ers everything they've got. The 49ers must stick to the Keys to Victory if they plan to win and improve to 5-4.
