Breaking down the 49ers' ground game struggles, red-zone issues, and running back rotation - Part 1
It hasn't exactly been the San Francisco 49ers' year.
2024 began with a brutal overtime loss in February, followed by an offseason where wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was traded and subsequently untraded to four different teams, seemingly all at the same time. As the 49ers navigated their annual cycle of contract holdouts and hold-ins, they sustained enough injuries to tide the team over until their next trip to MetLife Stadium. And the Niners' first-round draft pick got shot. So, how was your summer?
Who could have guessed that in Week 13, the return of star running back Christian McCaffrey would somehow become the team's biggest "problem?"
McCaffrey's absence, due to bilateral Achilles tendinitis, lasted eight games, leaving a massive hole in the 49ers' offense and head coach Kyle Shanahan's playbook. CMC's comeback was supposed to cure all the 49ers' red-zone woes. Instead, San Francisco's offense managed to stall out faster than Shanahan trying to run out the clock in the third quarter with a two-score lead.
During his three games back in red and gold, McCaffrey has rushed for 149 yards on 43 carries, averaging a modest 3.5 yards per attempt. In the passing game, CMC added 15 receptions for 86 yards and a fumble. These numbers are a far cry from the electrifying production we've come to expect from the NFL's reigning Offensive Player of the Year.
But raw statistics don't tell the whole story of McCaffrey's impact. In his first game back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the 49ers nearly doubled their opponent's offensive yardage totals, as quarterback Brock Purdy passed for a season-high 350 yards. Even at less than full strength, McCaffrey's mere presence demands attention, as his dual-threat capability still forces defenses to account for him on every snap.
Still, it's clear that CMC has yet to return to peak form, and the 49ers have struggled to find their offensive rhythm. Over the past three weeks, the team has averaged fewer than 17 points, a significant drop from the 26 points per game they posted during McCaffrey's absence. Although their red-zone efficiency has improved marginally, San Francisco remains one of the league's least effective teams in this critical area. These issues raise questions about McCaffrey's health and whether the team may have rushed him back into a full workload.
Jordan Mason: Next man up?
Did the 49ers forget about Jordan Mason? During McCaffrey's absence, Mason amassed 711 rushing yards on 143 carries, including 192 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and 493 yards after contact (YACo). That's a lot of blood, sweat, and broken tackles, but it only translates to a mere +0.2 Expected Points Added (EPA) on rushes outside the red zone.
Unfortunately, it gets worse. Despite being one of only 14 qualifying running backs with positive RYOE in the red zone, Mason averages just three yards per carry inside the 20-yard line, and less than one yard per carry in goal-to-go situations.
This inefficiency near the goal line results in a troubling -10.8 EPA in the red zone, the third-lowest among NFL running backs. Combined with his minimal EPA outside the red zone, Mason's total contribution to the San Francisco 49ers' running game amounts to a surprising -10.6 EPA for the season.
In other words, while Mason often consistently gains solid yardage throughout a game, his efforts generally don't lead to points or wins. His limited effectiveness in critical scoring situations has hindered the team's success—even though it's not entirely his fault.
Like every NFL running back, Mason isn't perfect in the red zone, but he doesn't deserve to shoulder all the blame for the 49ers' red-zone rushing struggles. There are limits to the amount of poor blocking and predictable playcalling a running back can realistically overcome.
The entire San Francisco backfield has faltered as the team nears the opposing end zone. In fact, in goal-to-go situations, McCaffrey leads all 49ers halfbacks with an EPA of zero.
The 49ers' offensive line has been a major issue throughout the season, limiting the production of the entire offense. Poor blocking has made it harder to establish and sustain a rushing attack, putting additional pressure on the backfield, especially as the team nears the opponent's goal line.
Shanahan's playcalling has also come under scrutiny—and with good reason. If it seems like opposing defenses know what play is coming, it's probably because they often do—but we'll save the film-room revelations for part two of this series.
In today's NFL, a running back's contribution to overall team success hinges primarily on effectiveness in the passing game, as well as success on the ground in red-zone and short-yardage situations. Unfortunately, Mason has struggled to become a significant factor in the passing game, totaling less than 100 receiving yards on 135 routes run. While his receiving EPA of +3.8 demonstrates progress, his overall lack of production prevents him from earning a larger share of the 49ers' running back snaps. With McCaffrey's return, Mason's role has been reduced—but perhaps too much, given the potential the young running back has shown throughout the season.
Isaac Guerendo: A rookie with speed and sliding skills
The 49ers' fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Isaac Guerendo, has flashed in limited action this season. Averaging an impressive six yards per carry, he has accumulated 76 RYOE and 191 YACo. His +5.5 Rush EPA ranks second on the team, trailing only quarterback Brock Purdy.
However, similar to Mason, Guerendo has struggled in critical scoring situations. In the red zone, his average drops to 3.1 yards per carry on limited attempts. In goal-to-go scenarios, he's managed only seven yards on five carries, resulting in a negative Rush EPA and RYOE. These struggles mirror those of Mason, highlighting a broader issue with the team's red-zone rushing attack.
The 49ers hope Guerendo will develop into a versatile dual-threat option, especially given his background as a wide receiver before switching positions in college. But despite his 4.33 speed and athleticism, he has yet to make a significant impact as a receiver, totaling just 22 receiving yards this season. While his receiving EPA is promising, his limited production over limited snaps has prevented him from earning a larger role in the offense.
As with many rookie running backs, pass protection remains Guerendo's biggest challenge. He has missed several key blocks, resulting in Purdy taking significant hits on potentially game-changing plays. Until he proves he can consistently protect the quarterback, expect his playing time to remain limited:
Despite these hurdles, Guerendo's raw talent gives him a solid foundation for growth. With focused development, he could become a valuable asset to the 49ers' offense, adding much-needed versatility and explosiveness—but likely in future seasons rather than in 2024.
Shanahan's Challenge: Offensive evolution
Shanahan now faces the complex task of quickly revitalizing an offense under challenging circumstances. The team urgently needs an infusion of both versatility and unpredictability—qualities McCaffrey brings to the table. However, adapting to the current realities may require Shanahan to rethink his approach, tailoring plays to better suit the strengths of his available personnel and addressing offensive line weaknesses that have become too obvious to ignore.
In an effort to utilize favored play designs that require a dual-threat running back, Shanahan has frequently moved wide receiver Deebo Samuel into the backfield to play the "McCaffrey role." While Samuel is a versatile and dynamic player who fans always want to get rid of for some reason, this strategy puts further strain on an already injury-depleted receiving corps, potentially limiting the team's passing attack if not implemented thoughtfully.
A comprehensive reassessment of Shanahan's offensive strategy is necessary if the 49ers hope to play meaningful football in January, and thus, expectations should be tempered. There are, however, several straightforward adjustments that could at least make the remaining games more competitive and enjoyable to watch.
NFL teams have found success by incorporating play-action passes, a strategy the 49ers have largely moved away from despite their continued heavy reliance on the run game. Reintroducing this mainstay could bring some much-needed unpredictability to their offense. Additionally, small adjustments to their red-zone playcalling—such as deviating from their predominant pattern of running when under center and passing when in shotgun—might help recapture the red-zone efficiency they enjoyed in 2023.
Balancing the Workload
Finding the right balance in the backfield is crucial for unlocking the 49ers' offensive potential. While increasing Mason's carries is a strategy with merit, and may result in short-term benefits, simply reallocating touches is unlikely to address the team's underlying issues.
Tailoring McCaffrey's role to capitalize on his unique skill set could enhance his effectiveness during recovery, and, by extension, improve the offense as a whole. Integrating Mason and Guerendo in a more varied and unpredictable manner is an excellent strategy for keeping defenses off-balance. Avoiding patterns that allow opponents to anticipate plays based on personnel, formation, and down-and-distance is key, and would certainly make it more difficult to scheme against the 49ers' offense.
Ultimately, the team's success depends on its leadership's ability to make meaningful adjustments—and to make them quickly. With the right changes, the 49ers can position themselves for a strong finish to the season and, at the very least, remain in contention for the NFC West Division title.
- Chris Wilson
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Written by:You may have seen Chris Wilson's work on NFL game theory, statistical analysis, and film breakdowns at Minute Media, FanSided, Niner Noise, Insidethe49, LockedonSports, ClutchPoints, and others. Follow Chris on Twitter @cgawilson.
