With five games remaining in the 2024 NFL season, it's safe to say the San Francisco 49ers' playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.
Making matters worse is the fact the 49ers have appeared lifeless in their past two games -- a 38-10 loss at Green Bay on November 24 and a 35-10 loss at Buffalo on December 1. In neither game did the 49ers resemble a playoff contender, and with injuries continuing to pile up, it's getting harder to see how the 49ers are going to be able to dig themselves out of this hole.
They'll surely keep trying, but as head coach Kyle Shanahan noted after his team's loss to the Bills on Sunday, it's going to take something beyond what they've done in the past to make it happen.
"This is the hole we put ourselves in and made it a lot tougher," Shanahan said. "And if we want to get out of it, we've got to do something special here."
This year's 49ers team stands at 5-7 after 12 games and is two games behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West with five games left to play. According to NFL.com playoff projections, the 49ers' odds of making the playoffs are now down to just nine percent. They face a challenging road the rest of the way, starting with a home game next week against the Chicago Bears (4-8) followed by a Thursday night home game against the Los Angeles Rams (6-6), a road game against the Miami Dolphins (5-7), a Monday night home game against the Detroit Lions (11-1), and a road game to close the season against the Arizona Cardinals (6-6).
With the Washington Commanders currently holding down the final wild card spot at 8-5, the 49ers may have to win the division in order to reach the postseason. Either way, they may have to win out to put themselves in a position to have a chance.
"All must-wins," head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the loss to the Bills. "It was a must-win this week. It's even stronger next week. So it'll be that way from here on out."
Making matters more difficult is the fact the 49ers don't seem to have the ammo they had in years past to dig themselves out of tough situations. They may have lost running back Christian McCaffrey for the remainder of the season to a knee injury he suffered against the Bills. Defensive end Nick Bosa (hip, oblique), cornerback Deommodore Lenoir (knee), guard Aaron Banks (concussion), and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) were all sidelined against the Bills, while linebacker Dre Greenlaw still awaits his season debut after spending the bulk of the year recovering from a torn Achilles he suffered in last season's Super Bowl. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (triceps) are out for the season, and safety Talanoa Hufanga has been on injured reserve with torn wrist ligaments. Meanwhile, linebacker Fred Warner has been playing with an ankle fracture.
Despite that, Shanahan expects better than what he's seen from his team over the past two games.
"I'm real disappointed," Shanahan said Sunday. "We've got a lot more pride than this. And I know we definitely know we have some people out and stuff, but we can play a lot better than that. Having three turnovers both of these weeks and getting none, I think that's six to zero in two weeks. And when you do that and you don't stop the run like we have in these last two weeks, I usually can guess the outcome."
Among the more notable comebacks from this core of players over the years has been a 10-game winning streak to close the 2022 regular season and win the NFC West after a 3-4 start and a 7-2 finish to make the playoffs as a wild card in 2021 after a 3-5 start. Both of those teams saw their seasons come to an end in the NFC Championship game.
If this year's team manages to bounce back from their current situation, it would be the most impressive and improbable comeback yet. But even if the odds look slim at the moment, the team plans to keep fighting, starting with their upcoming home game against the Bears.
"We're not as good of a team as those past teams," head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the loss to Buffalo on Sunday. "So that's kind of how I look at it. We're not the same team at all. Every team each year is different. But I'm not going to say that this team is the same as last year's team or we're just not fighting as hard.
"We got a bunch of different guys out there. We've been trying to find our way since the beginning. Haven't quite found that yet. There's still a lot of season left, and we expect to play better. But I'm not going to say that our team doesn't have fight."
