San Francisco 49ers fan guide to Sunday's games and the teams that will determine the Niners' draft position.
49ers fans have quickly pivoted their focus from playoff aspirations to the sobering reality of draft position scenarios, and the dreaded word: tanking. However, those hoping for a Niners tank have some disappointing news: there isn't much room left for the 49ers to improve their draft position.
Just one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance and the 31st selection, the 49ers now hold the 11th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. But if you're a fan hoping for a single-digit draft pick, prepare for disappointment.
The 49ers have endured the NFL's most difficult schedule this season, compounded by yet another year of record-setting rest disparity. Perhaps it shouldn't be overly surprising that the Niners find themselves in their current 6-win predicament. But as the punishing schedule continues to impact the 49ers, now it also limits the team's range of draft pick outcomes.
49ers Draft Position Problem
The NFL's draft order tiebreaker system relies first on team strength of schedule (SOS); teams facing easier schedules pick ahead of teams with tougher competition. And who has the NFL's most difficult strength of schedule in 2024? The San Francisco 49ers.
After accounting for future opponents, and potential win-loss scenarios, the 49ers' SOS will remain the highest among teams in draft contention at the conclusion of the 2024 NFL regular season.
Simply put, the 49ers lose every draft tiebreaker.
This factor severely limits the 49ers' ability to tank any further. Specifically, the 5-win New Orleans Saints are the only team the Niners can "pass" in the draft order, and only if the Saints win their remaining games and the 49ers lose out. In this unlikely scenario, the 49ers would receive the No. 10 draft pick, as their 6-11 record would be trumped by the 7-10 Saints.
And that's it. With no other 5-win or 6-win teams in the NFL, that's the end of the road for the San Francisco 49ers' Tank of 2025.
49ers Easily Out-Tanked
Unfortunately, while it's difficult for the 49ers to tank their way to a better draft pick, losing draft position is a serious reality if San Francisco manages to win at least one more game in 2024. Of course, their "draft opponents" play a pivotal role in this as well, which gives the 49er Faithful even more reason to watch Sunday's Week 17 slate.
Fans should keep an eye on the following teams–at least for this week: The 7-win Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts and the 8-win Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Also in the mix are the 7-9 Arizona Cardinals and the 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals, who both played on Saturday.
49ers Draft Scenarios
Barring ties, the 49ers have three general draft scenarios depending on the team's number of wins over their two remaining games:
1. Tank SZN: 6-11 Final Record
If the 49ers lose out, they will retain the No. 11 draft pick. If the Saints manage an unlikely two-game winning streak, San Francisco will be not-so-proud owners of the final top-10 draft pick.
2. Split: 7-10 Final Record
With one win and one loss, the Niners would drop draft spots to the Cowboys, Dolphins and Colts, if any of those teams lose all of their remaining games. Similarly, the 49ers lose the SOS battle if the Cardinals beat the 49ers in the final game and end the season with an identical 7-10 record.
If the 49ers split their last two games, they will draft as high as No. 11 and low as No. 15–although the latter is extremely unlikely.
3. Turnaround: 8-9 Final Record
If the San Francisco 49ers happen to remember that they're really not that bad, and finish the season with victories in their final two games, they will no longer be in competition for the No. 11 draft selection. They will also be adversely impacted by all aforementioned 7-win teams that lose one or more games across the final two weeks of the season.
Also in play is an 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals squad that's playing for a playoff spot but would fall into a better draft scenario than the 49ers if they lose in Week 18. Finally, the San Francisco 49ers would lose the hypothetical draft battle to the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the 8-9 Atlanta Falcons—but not both, since one of the two teams will be playoff-bound as NFC South Champions.
In this worst-case scenario—generally unreasonable, with a probability of a small fraction of one percent—the 49ers could end the year with the No. 17 draft pick. However, even if the San Francisco 49ers win out, they'll still likely end the season with a top-15 draft pick:
What draft pick will the 49ers have in 2025? pic.twitter.com/UbBw5T9Jhf
— Chris Wilson (@cgawilson) December 29, 2024
Draft Context
The 49ers are poised to end their 2024 campaign with a draft selection in the upper-middle range of the first round of the draft. Is a slight improvement in draft position worth sacrificing the chance to end the season on a high note and build positive momentum for 2025?
For context, San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have three years of experience with a pick positioned in the second quartile of the draft. The duo used those picks to acquire tackle Mike McGlinchey and defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw–and the third pick was a key part of a trade widely regarded as one of the worst in 49ers history.
49ers Rooting Interests
Irrespective of your stance on tanking, victories by the following teams today would place the San Francisco 49ers in the most advantageous position for the upcoming draft:
New Orleans Saints (+2) over Las Vegas Raiders
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) over New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns
And, to a lesser extent:
Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) over Washington Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) over Carolina Panthers
- Chris Wilson
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Written by:You may have seen Chris Wilson's work on NFL game theory, statistical analysis, and film breakdowns at Minute Media, FanSided, Niner Noise, Insidethe49, LockedonSports, ClutchPoints, and others. Follow Chris on Twitter @cgawilson.
