The San Francisco 49ers' highest potential draft pick in three years will be determined by today's results.
The San Francisco 49ers showed resilience in a hard-fought defeat to the Detroit Lions last Monday night, with backups and newcomers providing notable contributions in the Niners' one-score loss to the top seed in the NFC. Although San Francisco's playoff hopes were extinguished weeks ago, last week's performance showed that even with their depleted roster, the team can remain competitive with the NFL's elite.
Or, more simply put: The 49ers' unintentional tank remains nothing short of elegant.
As covered in last week's draft-centric "rooting guide," the 49ers have a limited range of final draft pick outcomes, and their loss to Detroit kept them at pick No. 11. Unfortunately, losses by other draft-focused teams eliminated San Francisco's chances of improving their 2025 NFL Draft position.
Entering the final week of the regular season, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan confirmed that several key players will be absent from today's game due to injury. The outcome of the Niners' contest with the Arizona Cardinals, along with results from around the league, will determine the final draft positions for San Francisco and all fellow non-playoff-bound teams. The scenario facing the 49ers is straightforward. A loss to the Cardinals would secure the No. 11 pick, maintaining their current position. A victory would push them back to at least the 12th selection, with further movement possible depending on the outcome of a pair of games involving teams with records identical to Arizona.
Should the 49ers win in today's 1:25 p.m. PT game, fans should pay specific attention to two teams–the Indianapolis Colts and the Dallas Cowboys–who both play during today's early slate on FOX's broadcast. A loss by either of team would push San Francisco back one additional draft slot. In a worst-case scenario where both teams lose and the 49ers win, San Francisco would select 14th overall.
49ers: Games to Watch
Two games beyond the 49ers' own matchup carry significant draft implications today:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5): The Colts are no longer in playoff contention after their surprising loss to the New York Giants in Week 17. Although Indianapolis is resting starting quarterback Anthony Richardson, they are favored by more than a field goal over the 4-win Jaguars.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (+7): Somewhat ironically, the Cowboys are starting former 49ers QB Trey Lance under center against their NFC East rivals. Meanwhile, the heavily-favored Commanders need a victory to maintain the No. 6 seed in the NFC, which will include a trip to either Los Angeles or Tampa Bay–but not Philadelphia–for the first week of the playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5): With several 49ers starters, including wide receiver Deebo Samuel and cornerback Deommodore Lenoir, resting, Arizona is favored to win the contest. The most notable absentee from today's lineup is Quarterback Brock Purdy, who sustained an injury in the closing minutes of last week's contest. Purdy will be replaced by career journeyman Joshua Dobbs, who started eight games for the Cardinals last season as Kyler Murray recovered from an ACL injury.
Updated:
#Cowboys find a way to lose to the #Commanders.#Colts beat #Jaguars in OT.#49ers will own the 11th #NFLDraft pick with a loss.
— Chris Wilson (@cgawilson) January 5, 2025
49ers will draft 13th with a win vs. the #AZCardinals. https://t.co/HoQesBZyFP
49ers Draft Position Impact
To some, the difference between picking 11th and 14th might seem negligible, while others argue that historical draft data suggests this range often marks a key transition point in first-round value. Recent players selected in this range include standout offensive tackles and key defensive playmakers–positions that should interest San Francisco given their offensive line problems over recent seasons, as well as potential offseason departures.
For fans focused on draft positioning, the optimal scenario remains clear; loss to Arizona would lock in the highest possible selection at No. 11. However, recent NFL drafts have shown that success in this range depends more on evaluation and development than exact draft position, and given Shanahan and 49ers general manager John Lynch's drafting history–well, who knows?
The 49ers will make their selection in the upcoming NFL Draft on Thursday, April 24, 2025, marking their highest first-round pick since their highly-questionable selection of Trey Lance third overall in 2021. With holes in the roster, several key veterans entering free agency and important personnel decisions looming, this draft pick will hold added significance for a team looking to reload rather than rebuild. The outcomes of today's games will set the stage for what promises to be a crucial offseason in the San Francisco 49ers' efforts to return to championship contention.
- Chris Wilson
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Written by:You may have seen Chris Wilson's work on NFL game theory, statistical analysis, and film breakdowns at Minute Media, FanSided, Niner Noise, Insidethe49, LockedonSports, ClutchPoints, and others. Follow Chris on Twitter @cgawilson.
