Full disclosure: I am not a journalist. I am not a journalist from the Bay Area who is tuned in to inside sources, such as Matt Maiocco and Matt Barrows, who have been nailing it for decades.
No, I am the voice of reason, the voice of the reality check, and today it's "the Brock Purdy situation." The looming contract Purdy will receive and how much he ought to receive and whether there will be a holdout or should be or ... and plenty of clickbait. But I would like to address a few things I have not seen.
First, let's look at who has "leverage."
Which is scarier?
We can make you play on your rookie deal and franchise tag you for two years.
I can hold out like Brandon Aiyuk into early next season.
If you think the former, you weren't following the Niners last year. And if John Lynch, Kyle Shanahan, and many others are telling the truth that they want Brock to be their QB for a long time, the second would scare the pants off them.
Now, let's look at the argument that he shouldn't get paid all that much because he wasn't that good last year, and his great year was because he was the product of those around him.
Well, it stands to reason that any QB's numbers would go down if he lost half his playmakers. How would Jalen Hurts do if he lost AJ Brown and Saquon Barkley? Is he a product of their talent? How about Jared Goff without Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery? And if we look at history, we would certainly have to downgrade Peyton Manning because he had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Edgerrin James. (And by the way, Brock's numbers two years ago were better than Peyton's in 2004 when he had those three. More yards, more yards per game, better completion percentage, more touchdown passes and half the interceptions. I'm not saying Brock is a future Hall of Famer, just that if you are going to dismiss his play because he has a good supporting cast, then you have to do it for everyone.)
But let's look at how "bad" this past year actually was. He only played 15 games, so let's look at yards passing per game. He was 5th in the league. More than Patrick Mahomes, than Josh Allen, better than Jordan Love. Average yards per attempt: 3rd in the league. QBR: 7th. Ahead of Mahomes, ahead of Jalen Hurts, ahead of Tua Tagovailoa. These numbers look like a so-so year only if you compare them to 2023.
Who makes whom better? George Kittle had more yards receiving last year than in 2023. But that was because Purdy had no one else to throw to! Kittle had over 1,000 the year before. The last time Kittle had over 1,000 before that was early in his career. Brock makes a difference.
So what about that contract? I have seen writers suggest he receive less than $50 million—and be happy to take it! And yet, he was statistically a top-10 quarterback last year. Tua makes 53. Brock was better in almost every meaningful category. Jordan Love makes 55. Again, Purdy is better in every category. Trevor Lawrence makes 55—and that's not even worth a comparison. Why would Purdy (and his agent) even consider anything below 50? And since the salary cap has increased, why would he consider anything below Tua?
Because of the team's cap constraints, people suggest Purdy take a "team-friendly deal." But what does that mean? Let's say he demanded $52 million. That is several million dollars below what people who are worse are getting. That's team friendly.
Ultimately, no matter what is on the table, if a player is asked to take less than the market is paying, he can reasonably ask back, "What am I getting for that money?" For Purdy, that might be $15 million over the course of the contract. So, what will the Niners do with it? Will they sign a new corner or get a good right tackle? Whom will they draft? A defensive tackle in the 1st, a corner in the 2nd, and eventually get around to an offensive lineman in the 4th (whom they hope they can "coach up" in three years)? Or will they take an OT in the 1st and a center in the 3rd?
If I were Brock Purdy, I'd be watching. And I would not accept any team-friendly deal until it was clear the organization was more than just financially committed to me. If I were Brock Purdy, I would not sign off on negotiations until after the draft. There is time to get a deal done.
And offers need to be based on facts, not impressions.
