It was just like old times as the San Francisco 49ers got annihilated in Seattle to the tune of a 43-16 trouncing in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Seahawks. Even Kyle Shanahan lost his composure and it now seems that all the F-bombs and innovating coaching in the world can't stop the momentum building toward locking up the number one pick in 2019, as they have nothing but potential playoff teams for the rest of their schedule, starting with the rising Denver Broncos this Sunday. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday December 9th at 1:05pm PST (CBS)
Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Line: Broncos -4, total at 45.5
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have emerged as playoff contenders after beating the Steelers and Chargers during their current three-game winning streak. Denver's offense is ranked 14th with 365.7 yards per game, 17th with 23.0 points per game and 9th with a weighted offense of 10.3 percent. The Broncos' passing and rushing attacks are ranked 23rd and 5th, respectively.
Denver's defense has re-established itself as a dominant unit, ranking 25th with 382.8 yards allowed per game (though this has been improving lately), 11th with 21.8 points conceded per game and 3rd with a weighted defense of -14.6 percent. The Broncos' passing and rushing defenses are both ranked 23rd.
Case Keenum is ranked 22nd with a DYAR of 140 and 29th with a total QBR of 47.0. Denver is 5th with a weighted DVOA of 23.9 percent, 6-5-1 ATS and 3-8-1 to the over/under this season, covering the spread in its last three games.
Sinceits win against the Raiders, San Francisco's offense has gradually declined as more teams have figured out Nick Mullens' tendencies. The Niners' offense is 15th with 363.3 yards per game, 22nd with 21.3 points per game and 29th in weighted offense at -16.8 percent. San Francisco's rushing and passing offenses are ranked 21st and 7th, respectively.
The 49ers' defense has been tossed around like a rag doll the past few games, with no let up for the rest of the season, ranking 12th with 348.8 yards surrendered per game, 29th with 28.0 points per game and 26th in weighted defense at 8.2 percent. The Niners' passing and rushing defenses are ranked 13th and 15th, respectively.
Nick Mullens has a DYAR of 72 and total QBR of 57.1. The Niners are 31st with a weighted DVOA of -28.3 percent, 3-9 ATS, 7-5 to the over/under this season, failing to cover in their last three contests.
Prediction
Since vowing to bet against the 49ers in each and every game since their collapse in Arizona, we have improved our ATS record this season and we see no reason to stop now, particularly in this match-up of two teams heading in opposite directions. Case Keenum's numbers may not look much better than Nick Mullens' on paper, but full season statistics are misleading when considering that the Broncos are currently playing much better football than the Niners, reflected by the significantly superior weighted statistics as documented above.
After getting absolutely humiliated by Russell Wilson last week, we do expect San Francisco to show a little more pride this week, which could lead to the game being more tightly contested and lower scoring, making us lean toward the under. But Philip Lindsey and the Broncos defense will ultimately pound the Niners into submission, leading to the win and cover. Pick: Denver -4
4-7 ATS
8-3 SU
