After a week of experts saying the San Francisco 49ers' offense was in decline and how they were going receive a reality check in Week 8, the Niners went and dropped a fifty-burger in a 51-13 demolition of the Carolina Panthers, ending Carolina's four game winning streak and making Kyle Allen look like a helpless rookie. Now San Francisco will have to deal with a quick turnaround as it takes on the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Thursday October 31st, 2019 at 5:20pm (FOX)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: 49ers -10, o/u 43
Arizona Cardinals
Following three straight wins, the Cardinals came back down to earth in their 9-31 loss at the New Orleans Saints in Week 8 and will now return home after two games on the road.
After eight weeks, Arizona ranks 26th in Football Outsiders' total DAVE rating at -18.7 percent (represents a combination of preseason projection and performance so far), 27th with a total DVOA of -20.1 percent, 21st in offensive DAVE at -4.2 percent, 19th in offensive DVOA at -2.9 percent, 29th in defensive DAVE at 12.2 percent and 29th in defensive DVOA at 14.6 percent. The Cardinals' offense ranks 22nd with 342.9 yards per game, 20th with 21.3 points per game, 19th with 226.4 passing yards per game and 14th with 116.5 rushing yards per game. Arizona's defense is 29th in giving up 407.1 yards per game, 29th in yielding 27.9 points per game, 29th with 277.0 passing yards conceded per game and 25th in allowing 130.1 rushing yards per game.
The Cardinals' offensive line is ranked 17th in run blocking and 29th in pass protection. Arizona's defensive line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards and 13th in adjusted sack rate. Kyler Murray ranks 25th with a DYAR of -51 and 13th with a total QBR of 55.2. The Cardinals have an ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) score of -5.4 and are 5-3 ATS and 4-4 to the over/under so far this season.
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers once again utilized outstanding play calling from Kyle Shanahan and suffocating, disruptive defense to make another NFL team look completely incompetent and broken, remaining undefeated and now forcing even the most skeptical to acknowledge that they are one of the best teams in the entire NFL.
Through eight weeks, San Francisco is ranked 2nd in total DAVE at 34.6 percent, 1st with a total DVOA of 46.3 percent, 15th in offensive DAVE at 3.2 percent, 10th with an offensive DVOA of 5.4 percent, 2nd in defensive DAVE at -32.1 percent and 2nd in defensive DVOA with -41.6 percent. The 49ers' offense is 6th with 387.3 yards per game, 3rd with 29.6 points per game, 24th with 206.1 passing yards per game and 2nd with 181.1 rushing yards per game. San Francisco's defense is 1st in allowing 224.4 yards per game, 2nd by conceding 11.0 points per game, 1st in giving up 128.7 passing yards per game and 11th in yielding 95.7 rushing yards per game.
The Niners' offensive line is ranked 5th in run blocking and 7th in pass protection. San Francisco's defensive line is 13th in adjusted line yards and 1st in adjusted sack rate. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 18th with a DYAR of 153 and 9th with a total QBR of 60.7. The Niners have an ESPN FPI score of 8.2 and are 5-2 ATS and 2-5 to the over/under this season.
Prediction
At this point, the Niners have proven to be one of the most dominant teams in the NFL and there is no need to overthink things with regard to considering a wager on San Francisco: it's either bet on the 49ers or pass. We will continue to see inflated spreads with San Francisco, not unlike being a double-digit road favorite such as this Thursday in Arizona, but the Niners have proven to be so good and have made so many teams look so bad that they will likely cover more weeks than not.
Even though it is a short week, the Niners are facing a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach and will be looking for payback after getting swept by Arizona in 2018. The Cardinals' offensive line is ranked 29th in pass protection and Kyler Murray is going to be running for his life and likely headed for a world of hurt on Thursday, as San Francisco's defensive line continues to control games, collapse opponents offensive lines and Nick Bosa strengthens his case for not only Defensive Rookie of the Year but also Defensive Player of the Year. Pick: 49ers -10
Season
ATS: 2-5
SU: 3-4