49er fans have been spoiled by the Joe Montana and Steve Young eras. From 1981 (Montana's first year as a starter) to 1998 (Young's last full season), fans grew accustomed to having an MVP-level QB starting for their team each season. Every quarterback who has started for the Red and Gold since 1999 has been judged, fairly or not, against the success of those two legends.
One year removed from a Super Bowl run, and after another season derailed by an injury, a majority of fans and 49ers' Twitter have determined that Jimmy Garoppolo is not the future. They have been clamoring for the team to trade up in the 2021 NFL Draft to get one of the top 4 QB prospects coming out of college: Trevor Lawrence from Clemson, Justin Fields from Ohio State, Zach Wilson from BYU, or Trey Lance from North Dakota State (with Mac Jones from Alabama and Kyle Trask from Florida rounding out the six likely first-round QB prospects).
The 49ers currently have the 15th pick in the draft, but that will change depending on the outcome of Week 17 matchups across the league. There are quite a few teams currently picking the top 10 that have unsettled quarterback situations, so if the team does want to draft one of the above-mentioned prospects, it's going to take an absolute haul of picks to trade up in position to get one. We're talking 1st- and 2nd-round picks this year, and likely at least another 1st-round pick and mid-round pick in 2022. This is a team with 40 scheduled free agents, including left tackle Trent Williams, and all of the cornerbacks on the roster outside of Tim Harris. It cannot afford to give up the type of capital it would take to move up that far. Luckily for the 49ers, they already have a young, 1st-round quarterback on their roster who they can develop.
Josh Rosen was an elite prospect coming out of UCLA. Here are some analyses written about him prior to the 2018 NFL Draft:
"[He] has impressive footwork, and that leads to him throwing the ball accurately with good placement. [His] accuracy, timing, precision and arm strength make him deadly to move the ball down the field in a blur." - WalterFootball.com
"In terms of mechanics, accuracy, footwork and touch, he's the best passer in the 2018 draft class. He's an incredibly clean passer. His background as a tennis player is obvious in watching him take a three- or five-step drop. He's a prototype in his release and delivery and operates like an NFL quarterback on play action. He doesn't get rattled in the pocket despite a thin frame and tends to get better the more he's hit. He has the arm strength to hit windows and has shown consistent touch in leading receivers upfield. He doesn't miss often." - Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
"[His] footwork and mechanics stand out right away, even compared to the other top-flight QB prospects in this draft. [H]e consistently stayed under control, kept his balance, and delivered the football with precision. A significant chunk of his tape looks ripped directly from a quarterback fundamentals video. A number of other high-end college passers over the years have enticed teams with size, arm strength, and mobility, but have come with unrefined habits in the pocket. With [him], coaches know exactly what they would get in that regard. The way [he] deftly navigates the pocket to find solid throwing platforms opens up a few different aspects of his game. Although he isn't a running threat (4.92-second 40-yard dash at the combine; the official scouting term for that is "really slow"), he's capable of escaping pressure, especially off the edge. By climbing the pocket and regaining his balance, [he] is able to make strong throws to secondary reads late in downs. He may lack the skill set to extend plays in the traditional sense as more mobile quarterbacks can, but [he] can still hit on last-ditch throws by virtue of reestablishing command even after he is pushed off his initial spot." - Robert Mays, The Ringer
Rosen has a lot of the traits that could lead to significant success in a Kyle Shanahan offense: traditional pocket passer, incredible footwork in the pocket, accuracy and touch, a strong arm, and the ability to escape pressure by navigating the pocket a la Tom Brady. He is not a gifted athlete in the traditional sense, and he's definitely not a dual-threat QB like the top-4 prospects in this year's draft, but there is more than enough there for Shanahan and staff to mold Rosen into a winning quarterback.
It's hard to evaluate Rosen thus far in his NFL career and not use the word "bust." However, the guy has gotten a significantly raw deal to start his fledgling career. He was drafted by the Cardinals 10th overall in 2018, which was the first season for defensive-minded head coach Steve Wilks. His offensive coordinator was re-tread Mike McCoy, who was fired mid-season. The team lacked playmakers outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and the offensive line was absolutely atrocious (Rosen was sacked 45 times in 14 games). Wilks was fired after one season, Kliff Kingsbury was hired, the Cardinals took Kliff's guy (QB Kyler Murray) with the 1st overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, and Rosen was promptly traded to the Miami Dolphins.
Rosen's situation with Miami wasn't much better. Miami was in the midst of a significant rebuild, with a first-year defensive-minded head coach in Brian Flores, and many around the league thought it was in "tank mode" to be in position to draft one of the top QB prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rosen started three games, played abysmally, and Miami did indeed draft quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the following draft. Rosen was released and was signed to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers practice squad. The 49ers signed him off that practice squad on December 22nd, 2020, and this is where he currently finds himself.
Rosen has seen action in 20 games in his career, and the numbers aren't pretty: he has completed 54.8% of his passes for 2,845 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Yikes. However, he's still just 23 years old (he'll turn 24 in February), has elite traits, and with the 49ers he does not and will not have the pressure of being a high draft pick. If Rosen is given the chance to develop behind Jimmy Garoppolo for the next two seasons (that's how many years are left on Garoppolo's deal) he could take over if Garoppolo struggles, or hit the ground running in the 2023 season at 26 years old. The most appealing aspect of this scenario is that he does not cost the team any draft capital whatsoever. The 49ers would be free to use their picks in the upcoming draft to address the cornerback position, the interior of the offensive line, find another EDGE rusher to pair with Nick Bosa, and add depth to other areas.
The 49ers are in the middle of a Super Bowl window. The 2020 season was a disaster, no doubt about it, but this roster is still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Financially speaking, it would greatly benefit the team to fill some of the holes created this offseason with cheap, talented, cost-controlled players acquired in the 2021 draft. If San Francisco mortgages the future to move up and grab a QB, it will not be able to fill as many holes, and it could have long-range consequences for the team, especially if said QB does not pan out. That's a big gamble.
Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch already have a lottery ticket in Rosen; they might as well scratch it off and see what they have.
- Brian Renick
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Written by:A full-time educator, lifelong Niner fan, and Co-Host of the 49erswebzone No Huddle Podcast on the Audacy Network.
