Shockwaves reverberated around the NFL last month when the 49ers traded up with the Miami Dolphins to the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. By giving away its first- and third-round picks in 2022, and another first-rounder in 2023, San Francisco made its mega move in upgrading the quarterback room for its foreseeable future.
While the team has maintained a public stance of keeping current quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for this coming season, this trade signified its dissatisfaction with Garoppolo's services, as the 49ers are expected to select his successor with their third overall pick in the draft at the end of this month.
Most predict that the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New York Jets, who hold the first and second overall picks in this year's draft, will select quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson and Zack Wilson out of BYU. If this comes to pass on April 29, then the top three quarterbacks vying to be drafted by the Niners will be Justin Fields from Ohio State, Mac Jones from Alabama, and Trey Lance from North Dakota State.
Due to the immense draft capital the 49ers traded away to the Dolphins to move up in the draft, it surely demonstrates that they are taking a huge risk in believing they will draft an amazingly talented franchise quarterback for many years to follow. Why would they select Jones, one might ask — a player who has 17 collegiate starts with only a meager 566 passing attempts?
In addition, Jones has played quarterback for the best team in college football: the Alabama Crimson Tide. Steve Sarkisian's offense possessed one of the best offensive lines in 2020, led by center Landon Dickerson. It also featured dynamic weapons for Jones to utilize in running back Najee Harris and wide receivers Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, both of whom are considered elite first-round locks in the upcoming draft.
On top of this, Jones was able to rely upon an outstanding Nick Saban defense, with players like cornerback Patrick Surtain II putting opposing teams under pressure and regularly putting Jones and their offense back on the football field. Jones, seated at the wheel of a Ferrari during his 17 starts and with an elite scheme and players around him, made being the quarterback of the Crimson Tide a simpler job when compared to other quarterbacks in this draft.
Jones does not have the elite arm talent or the arm strength of Lance or Fields. Both Fields and Lance have gunslinging arms and are also dynamic and powerful runners through either designed run plays or while extending plays with their legs when the pocket or play collapses. In the modern-day NFL game, the mobile quarterback has developed into a nightmare matchup for opposing defenses due to his ability to become a dual-threat through pocket passing and also running and scrambling away from pressure for significant yardage. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson are examples of the modern-day, mobile quarterback and the damage he can cause.
Jones does not possess the elite physical traits of Fields and Lance, either. With a weaker, average arm and little threat with his legs, he is a traditional pure pocket passer and does not regularly demonstrate abilities to extend plays through off-platform improvising or scrambling for yardage when his pocket collapses, in the style that both Fields and Lance do. This leads to an opinion that Jones wields a high floor and, thus, a lower ceiling compared to Lance and Fields, who both have incredible physical gifts with their great arm talents and fantastic running abilities.
For the 49ers to mortgage three first-round picks for their future quarterback, they should look and scout in their projections for the player with the most talent and ability, and for me, Fields and Lance possess that in abundance over Jones.
Jones threw 41 touchdowns with only four interceptions and had 4,500 passing yards in his 17 collegiate starts. Lance had 28 touchdowns with zero picks in 2019 and threw for 2,786 passing yards, with 14 rushing touchdowns. He had just one start in 2020 due to COVID and threw for 149 passing yards with two touchdowns and his first collegiate interception. Meanwhile, Fields threw 63 touchdowns in his two years as a starter, with nine interceptions and 5,373 passing yards. He also combined for 15 rushing touchdowns across those 22 collegiate starts.
When comparing these three quarterbacks' stats, the traits that become apparent on film are embellished within these numbers. While Mac Jones boasted the most passing yards, you must add context and compensate for his stellar receiving corps. However, it shows how he is an excellent pocket passer who throws with great anticipation and accuracy. Nevertheless, both Fields and Lance have 15 and 14 rushing touchdowns, respectively, in addition to their passing touchdowns. This, too, shows how dynamic and effective players they both are through their dual-threat capabilities.
While it will take a couple of years in the league to clearly see who is the best NFL quarterback out of these rookies, I believe that the 49ers should lean towards the high upsides of both Fields and Lance. The new style of the league dictates the selection of one of these dynamic dual-threat, playmaking quarterbacks, and under Kyle Shanahan's coaching, the sky is the limit for Fields and Lance and their elite physical gifts. While Jones is accurate, he simply cannot warrant the draft capital mortgaged by San Francisco to draft him, and his high floor is incomparable to the talents of Fields and Lance.
You can coach decision-making, anticipation, footwork, and other quarterback mechanics. You can improve accuracy, timing, and reading the defenses. But you cannot coach elite speed, high-end arm talent, and arm strength, and also the physical size and power that come with both Fields and Lance. This is why the 49ers should not select Jones with the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
We will find out, come draft day, whom Shanahan chooses to be his cherry-picked quarterback of the future. Will he go with the traditional immobile pocket passer in Jones? Or will he go for one of the dual-threat playmakers in Fields or Lance?
All shall be revealed on April 29.
