You're slotted to get the first pick in your ff league and you select...

if i get the first pick i am going with AP. history, as recent as last year, teaches us that its not always the wisest choice going with the hot or "no-brainer" pick. michael turner was rated #1 on the majority of draft boards last year yet ended the year in the bottom top ten.

history also teaches us that running backs that have had a 2000+ rushing season had a significant drop off in production the following year. below is a list of all the running backs in league history to surpass the 2000 yard mark and their following year. stats are rushing yards and rushing touchdowns only.

o.j. simpson
1973: 2003 yds, 12 tds
1974: 1125 yds, 3 tds

eric dickerson
1984: 2105 yds, 14 tds
1985: 1234 yds, 12 tds

barry sanders
1997: 2053 yds, 11 tds
1998: 1491 yds, 4 tds

terrell davis
1998: 2008 yds, 21 tds
1999: 211 yds, 2 tds (inj.)

jamal lewis
2003: 2066 yds, 14 tds
2004: 1006 yds, 7 tds

chris johnson
2009: 2006 yds, 14 tds
2010: ?

as much as i respect johnson and what the titans seem to be on the road to accomplishing this upcoming season, i feel its better going with the consistent player than the trendy one.

thoughts?

trade down

probably Peterson, MJD, or Rice

breees

Adrian Peterson or trade down

Chris Johnson

His role in the passing game should go up. Even if his rushing stats go down some he should still be 2300 total yards 15 TDs guaranteed.

Tom Brady

Alex Smith

Trabtree

toby gerhart is going to steal redzone/goalline carries

Originally posted by RonMexico:
toby gerhart is going to steal redzone/goalline carries

Even more so if AP gets the fumblitis like last year.

Originally posted by NickV:

Originally posted by RonMexico:
toby gerhart is going to steal redzone/goalline carries

Even more so if AP gets the fumblitis like last year.

Peterson's fumbling is exaggerated. 350+ touches for a runner like Peterson is going to lead to fumbles.

He's my top pick next season if I get it.

Adrian Peterson, 2009 - Fumbled every 52.3 carries
Frank Gore, 2009 - Fumbled every 57.3 carries

Chris Johnson

Jones-Drew. It is doubtful he will get less touches or get worse, whereas AP may get less via Favre, and still has some kinks to work out. CJ's contract disputes make me uneasy on him.

Chris Johnson, the best RB in the league