Webzone Meh FFL Season 8 - Jim vs. Boise

I think FF is largely luck. I do think some are better at drafting than others which is the skill part. And I also think some are better at keeping up with the league and who to pick up on the waiver wire. Again skill. With those two things, usually the good players will be "in it" the majority of the years. But guys like Steve who has won this league and done well multiple times isn't all the sudden not good at FF when his team is under .500. Just some unlucky breaks.

But a lot of it is luck.

• Injuries. Injuries play one of the biggest roles in the final standings. I'm not talking about drafting oft injured players.
• Who you play and when is luck. You got teams that score a lot, but get scored on more than everyone else. In my main money league, our 10th place team is 3-6 but has scored the 3rd highest amount of points. But he's been scored on way more than an other team. When I played him he scored 147 points but I scored 164. You might play the weaker teams and catch the strong teams on their bye weeks.
• I am playing a team this week that has Dallas DEF which just lost both QBs and are starting a dude who was probably an extra on Sopranos.
• Going against good players when they play a great Defense is another example. Or vice versa.
• Or when your QB scores 11 points because they played in heavy rain or snow and had to run the ball. s**t, the Ravens kept running in 50 yard TDs this week and I was going against Boise's QB Lamar. They killed that team but I was lucky it happened or I would have lost. Lamar had 10 points.
• There is a component of the draft that is luck as well. Everyone has a plan and targeting certain players, but sometimes after you pick a position flies off the board and your pick isn't for two rounds. And by the time it gets back to you for your pick you are picking from the bottom 1/3. Tyreek Hill fell 5 spots to me in the draft this year. Luck.

I would say its like 75% luck / 25% skill

^I would also like to add onto the part of your post about me....

I would argue that neither time my team won did I have the best team in the league. Both times I felt my team was good, but I don't believe it was close to the best.

Trade deadline in 10 days any WRs available?

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
^I would also like to add onto the part of your post about me....

I would argue that neither time my team won did I have the best team in the league. Both times I felt my team was good, but I don't believe it was close to the best.

I remember it well. The playoff loss to you was so painful. I needed ONE sticking catch from my WR and he went out with an ACL in the first qt. Now, someone tell me that LUCK isnt the biggest factor. LOL

Listen, Rubs did a great job in the draft and was gifted Hill by some questionable picks right before him. I do think he has the best team but he will need good fortune to win it all. Injuries and matchups will likely decide the winner.

OR WHEN SOMEONE DIES ON THE FIELD AND THE GAME IS CANCELLED

GOOD TIMES

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
^I would also like to add onto the part of your post about me....

I would argue that neither time my team won did I have the best team in the league. Both times I felt my team was good, but I don't believe it was close to the best.

I remember it well. The playoff loss to you was so painful. I needed ONE sticking catch from my WR and he went out with an ACL in the first qt. Now, someone tell me that LUCK isnt the biggest factor. LOL

Listen, Rubs did a great job in the draft and was gifted Hill by some questionable picks right before him. I do think he has the best team but he will need good fortune to win it all. Injuries and matchups will likely decide the winner.

Hill is the FF MVP right now IMO .

he is 99% matchup proof . Tua may not be .

championship game week the Dolphins play the Ravens and for semi finals they play the Cowboys .

recipe for highest scorer to have some tough matchups during playoffs

^ 100%. I said that on the last page actually. Dolphins stomp the s**tty teams, and Tua struggles against the good ones. And they play good ones down the stretch. So I am going to need some luck like John said, but also....whoever gets to face me in the those games when it matters gets the luck. If my triple threat was scoring 75 points a game between the three and all the sudden scores 20 total because of matchups...that is luck for someone (just not for me).

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
^ 100%. I said that on the last page actually. Dolphins stomp the s**tty teams, and Tua struggles against the good ones. And they play good ones down the stretch. So I am going to need some luck like John said, but also....whoever gets to face me in the those games when it matters gets the luck. If my triple threat was scoring 75 points a game between the three and all the sudden scores 20 total because of matchups...that is luck for someone (just not for me).

But it's not really luck. You're already foreshadowing it. You are anticipating it happening. You can easily replace any of the 3 you think will underperform. You have 10 days to make trades to put your team in a better position.

Yahoo gives you rankings of the defense they are facing. You have the option to swap out players with bad matchups for better matchups. If you choose to start players with a bad matchup then they don't produce you can't say that's bad luck.

Look no further than Monday night. Jets at home with Sauce and Reed held Allen to 8.5 points and Mahomes 14 points. Herbert was in same situation but without his #2 & #3 WRs. To expect him to reach his projection in said scenario wasn't realistic.

There is skill in knowing when to fold. Your marquee players aren't always the right play.

EDIT: We know the NFL schedule long before we draft. If you don't look at playoff schedule before drafting certain players that's on the owner. When drafting QBs I always look at our playoff schedule to determine which QB I prefer. Now, those defenses aren't always as bad as I anticipate but....

^ if yahoo projections say 23, and your bench player says 14, and you play the bench player you are dumb. Yahoo/vegas are usually right. Like I said, if Lamar was projected to scored 25 and out of nowhere he has 3 RBs run in TDs from 25-50 yards out (like this week), that isn't something you can forecast. That is the other person getting lucky off a one off game (me this week against Boise). If you google this subject, there is a study with some Harvard folks (lol no lie this time...zone meme) that says FF is 80% luck, 20% skill. Kriz, you aren't a Harvard man. You are producing Modesto Junior College analysis here.

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
^ if yahoo projections say 23, and your bench player says 14, and you play the bench player you are dumb. Yahoo/vegas are usually right. Like I said, if Lamar was projected to scored 25 and out of nowhere he has 3 RBs run in TDs from 25-50 yards out (like this week), that isn't something you can forecast. That is the other person getting lucky off a one off game (me this week against Boise). If you google this subject, there is a study with some Harvard folks (lol no lie this time...zone meme) that says FF is 80% luck, 20% skill. Kriz, you aren't a Harvard man. You are producing Modesto Junior College analysis here.

Then Maybe they should have been the ones to argue in court. I don't need to be a Harvard man to read that the NY Chief Court of appeals ruled that skill predominates luck.

Originally posted by krizay:
Then Maybe they should have been the ones to argue in court. I don't need to be a Harvard man to read that the NY Chief Court of appeals ruled that skill predominates luck.

That's a determination of gambling or illegal gambling. It says because you can use data to research and predict, like a regular bet, FF shouldn't be illegal. And they say using that data makes it a game of skill. It doesn't say there isn't a luck factor. Are you suggesting there isn't luck in regular gambling? That would be dumb but that's the leap you're making.

apples and oranges, my guy

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
That's a determination of gambling or illegal gambling. It says because you can use data to research and predict, like a regular bet, FF shouldn't be illegal. And they say using that data makes it a game of skill. It doesn't say there isn't a luck factor. Are you suggesting there isn't luck in regular gambling? That would be dumb but that's the leap you're making.

apples and oranges, my guy

Hell yes there is luck in gambling. My argument is there is as much skill as there is luck in fantasy football. I already stated that scheduling/matchups (as in playing owners who score their highest total of the year against you week after week) and injuries are the only true luck in FF.

Your Lamar scenario I personally wouldn't constitute as luck. All that s**t usually evens out over the course of the year. Hell usually the week. Case in point the matchup with SWH, his team outscored his projections by 1.4. Mine outscored my projections by .9. So by your Lamar example he was luckier than me. Using projections to determine luck is silly

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
^ if yahoo projections say 23, and your bench player says 14, and you play the bench player you are dumb. Yahoo/vegas are usually right. Like I said, if Lamar was projected to scored 25 and out of nowhere he has 3 RBs run in TDs from 25-50 yards out (like this week), that isn't something you can forecast. That is the other person getting lucky off a one off game (me this week against Boise). If you google this subject, there is a study with some Harvard folks (lol no lie this time...zone meme) that says FF is 80% luck, 20% skill. Kriz, you aren't a Harvard man. You are producing Modesto Junior College analysis here.

LOL

Kriz... tell me how this isnt luck...
In my biggest money league Yahoo gave me an A+. It said I would lose 2 games all year and end up 1st in the league. Then I lost Achane, Montgomery, Deebo, and Williams. I also have Bijan who got 1 touch in a game when we were never told he was ill. I have gone from the powerhouse in the league to a team that has lost 4 in a row. Last week I was a huge favorite. The team I played picked up Stroud at the last minute and he overachieved his goal by 40 points. I lost 146-121.

Tell me again how this isnt mostly luck and not "skill"

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Kriz... tell me how this isnt luck...
In my biggest money league Yahoo gave me an A+. It said I would lose 2 games all year and end up 1st in the league. Then I lost Achane, Montgomery, Deebo, and Williams. I also have Bijan who got 1 touch in a game when we were never told he was ill. I have gone from the powerhouse in the league to a team that has lost 4 in a row. Last week I was a huge favorite. The team I played picked up Stroud at the last minute and he overachieved his goal by 40 points. I lost 146-121.

Tell me again how this isnt mostly luck and not "skill"

I've stated multiple times injuries and matchups (as in playing owners who score their highest total of the year against you week after week) are truly the only luck factors in FF.

What you brought up was injuries which I already stated is one of the two truly luck factors in FF. In my opinion.

The fact that your skill landed you the team that you got, you will still likely get into the playoffs.