Webzone Meh FFL Season 8 - Jim vs. Boise

Enter a group of researchers from MIT who set about calculating the luck vs skill breakdown in daily fantasy sports. Starting from the assumption that if it was pure luck, you would win half of your games in the long run. So if players consistently and persistently (year after year) win significantly more or less than half their games (high or low skill), then that competition is skill-based. They use this logic to define how both fantasy and real sports align on the luck vs skill spectrum.

i'm sorry, it was MIT not Harvard.

Kriz, give this a read.

https://www.alexcates.com/post/luck-vs-skill-how-much-does-luck-matter-in-season-long-fantasy-football

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
Enter a group of researchers from MIT who set about calculating the luck vs skill breakdown in daily fantasy sports. Starting from the assumption that if it was pure luck, you would win half of your games in the long run. So if players consistently and persistently (year after year) win significantly more or less than half their games (high or low skill), then that competition is skill-based. They use this logic to define how both fantasy and real sports align on the luck vs skill spectrum.

i'm sorry, it was MIT not Harvard.

Kriz, give this a read.

https://www.alexcates.com/post/luck-vs-skill-how-much-does-luck-matter-in-season-long-fantasy-football

I already read it. I actually almost used this when you made your Harvard comment. As I initially seen the 55/45 and thought is was regular FF. then I seen they were talking DFS. and had it at 80/20 for regular FF

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Kriz... tell me how this isnt luck...
In my biggest money league Yahoo gave me an A+. It said I would lose 2 games all year and end up 1st in the league. Then I lost Achane, Montgomery, Deebo, and Williams. I also have Bijan who got 1 touch in a game when we were never told he was ill. I have gone from the powerhouse in the league to a team that has lost 4 in a row. Last week I was a huge favorite. The team I played picked up Stroud at the last minute and he overachieved his goal by 40 points. I lost 146-121.

Tell me again how this isnt mostly luck and not "skill"

I've stated multiple times injuries and matchups (as in playing owners who score their highest total of the year against you week after week) are truly the only luck factors in FF.

What you brought up was injuries which I already stated is one of the two truly luck factors in FF. In my opinion.

The fact that your skill landed you the team that you got, you will still likely get into the playoffs.

Injuries and matchups may be the only two truly luck factors but they decide who wins virtually every year. You may have drafted the greatest team in history but if you get screwed by injuries and run into bad matchups you will lose. Look at Jefferson owners who most likely took him with the 1st or 2nd pick. Not only did they lose him for at least half the season but now his QB is out which will hurt him badly if he returns.

Josh Dobbs is the truth, John!

Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
Josh Dobbs is the truth, John!

So true. Fantasy league winner. I think I will pick him up

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
Injuries and matchups may be the only two truly luck factors but they decide who wins virtually every year. You may have drafted the greatest team in history but if you get screwed by injuries and run into bad matchups you will lose. Look at Jefferson owners who most likely took him with the 1st or 2nd pick. Not only did they lose him for at least half the season but now his QB is out which will hurt him badly if he returns.

Tman is living proof that if you have skill you can over come an injury with having the 1st or 2nd pick. The last time I made it to the final 4 I think I was only starting 1 of my top 7-8 picks. Injuries suck but unless you have a rash of them you can still overcome them. And matchups aren't as bad as you guys are making it out either. Very rare where you are constantly playing a top scorer. May happen to 1 guy in the entire league. For the most part the top guys have similar schedules. Mahomes/Herbert essentially the same schedule. Tua/Allen, Lamar/Burrow etc.... that s**t evens out.

So anyway enough luck/skill talk for me. Anyone got a WR for sale?

Originally posted by krizay:
So anyway enough luck/skill talk for me. Anyone got a WR for sale?

Negotiating is a skill

Originally posted by krizay:
So anyway enough luck/skill talk for me. Anyone got a WR for sale?

You can trade for Courtland Sutton

Originally posted by krizay:
So anyway enough luck/skill talk for me. Anyone got a WR for sale?

I got Hopkins , Ridley , Dell

Originally posted by krizay:
So anyway enough luck/skill talk for me. Anyone got a WR for sale?

Yee. Thomas, Downs, London. Lf gewd TE or RB

Originally posted by blizzuntz:

Originally posted by krizay:
So anyway enough luck/skill talk for me. Anyone got a WR for sale?

I got Hopkins , Ridley , Dell

I got Kupp, Puka, Evans, Addison, Rice and I hate myself.

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
I got Hopkins , Ridley , Dell

Pm Sent

Originally posted by Waterbear:
I got Kupp, Puka, Evans, Addison, Rice and I hate myself.

Pm sent

Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:
Yee. Thomas, Downs, London. Lf gewd TE or RB

Pm sent