2017 NCommand's Mock Draft

Originally posted by NCommand:

Mitchell Trubisky heads list of most pro-ready QB prospects
By David Carr, NFL Media Analyst
Published: April 3, 2017 at 01:27 p.m. Updated: April 3, 2017 at 03:34 p.m.

When I went to the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis a month ago, I thought I had an idea of which quarterback prospects could be Day 1 starters in this league. But when I left, it seemed like I had more questions than before.

Having gone through the process myself in 2002 -- as the eventual No. 1 overall pick for the then-expansion Houston Texans -- I know how much goes into being "pro ready" by August. These prospects will hit OTAs and minicamp in just over a month. They must be prepared to lead a team and show veteran teammates that they are 100 percent ready to play and understand the most difficult position in sports.

Here's how I see some of the quarterback prospects stacking up heading into the 2017 NFL Draft:

DAY 1 STARTER

Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina

Although limited in college reps, Trubisky has the best chance to start immediately. On film, I've seen him go through read progressions consistently. He looks from his main target to the next guy and sometimes even his third and fourth options. He also has the ability to tuck the ball and run, making a positive play. I think a lot of people are sleeping on Trubisky's athleticism. His build (6-foot-2, 222 pounds) reminds me of my brother, Derek, and Aaron Rodgers. People don't generally look at those two and see great athletes, but they can take off and run and are really good at it. I see Trubisky being this type of player.

Trubisky, who throws the ball from different arm angles, had a solid pro day, showing off his arm strength and accuracy. He has all the tools needed to be a Day 1 starter, and I have fewer questions surrounding him heading into this month's draft, which begins at 8 p.m. ET on April 27 in Philadelphia.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000797082/article/mitchell-trubisky-heads-list-of-most-proready-qb-prospects

Hell yeah bro, Im one of the few with you. Biscuit is one of the best prospects I have ever seen. The way he can deliver the ball accurately from so many throwing angles makes him special. Im actually starting to get bummed about the idea of not taking him. This guy goes through progressions like a walk in the park. He can today read progressions better than a lot of QBs in the league. He is better today than Kap ever was!

Originally posted by Ronnie49Lott:
Develop both to keep one and trade the other for mega picks. Works for me!

Bingo...I mean, that's an 'option' if we did in fact sign Cousins. If we didn't, we'd be having two well developed QB's (which you need this day/age anyhow).

Originally posted by 49erInTheMidwest:
Man, I'm so excited to find out which QB Shanahan takes

NC, think there's is any possibility if we stink bad enough we go after Darnold, Rosen, or Falk next year?

Me too! It will be very telling. We literally have his blue print so we can certainly make a really nice educated guess. But then again, this will be the first time HE gets to choose his QB in the first round (if he wants) so in some ways, this is new territory for him and us to watch unfold. ShanaLynch certainly will be looking to QB in the early and mid rounds this year while keeping an eye on FA Qb's next year while also factoring in next year's draft class and probability of getting one of them. They have too!

Originally posted by JBrack:
Hell yeah bro, Im one of the few with you. Biscuit is one of the best prospects I have ever seen. The way he can deliver the ball accurately from so many throwing angles makes him special. Im actually starting to get bummed about the idea of not taking him. This guy goes through progressions like a walk in the park. He can today read progressions better than a lot of QBs in the league. He is better today than Kap ever was!

The kid certainly seems to have all the traits Kyle is looking for and with so little "damage" from playing in a spread offense (what, 13 games?), he's the perfect mold for Kyle (IMHO, of course). The fun part is that Peterman is already well ahead of him in a pro-style offense so both could really push each other towards excellence with Trubisky with the highest ceiling and Peterman, the highest floor. And if Hoyer ever went down, Peterman could probably start today if need be and be very functional.

Frankly, I'd like to see the Niners trade out of the first round entirely, and simultaneously release a public statement calling out Cleveland for intentionally losing games for draft leverage -- making a mockery of the NFL's written and unwritten rules -- and the league for tolerating such obvious actions. But the NFL leadership -- if it can be called that -- are cowards from Goodell on down, and will not move to stem a pattern of behavior that has been going on for at least two years. Or perhaps they're just too stupid to know how to remedy the problem (and that includes the clearly manipulated Osweiler situation).

Well, it's a nice wish, but I suspect the Yorks are also too cowardly to fight back against abuse, even when their team -- by far the weakest in the NFL last year -- is the one most victimized by the Browns' ongoing manipulation of the league. So they'll end up drafting some bum at #2 (be it Trubumsky or Solobum) when by all rights they should have been entitled to Myles Garrett.

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:

Frankly, I'd like to see the Niners trade out of the first round entirely, and simultaneously release a public statement calling out Cleveland for intentionally losing games for draft leverage -- making a mockery of the NFL's written and unwritten rules -- and the league for tolerating such obvious actions. But the NFL leadership -- if it can be called that -- are cowards from Goodell on down, and will not move to stem a pattern of behavior that has been going on for at least two years. Or perhaps they're just too stupid to know how to remedy the problem (and that includes the clearly manipulated Osweiler situation).

Well, it's a nice wish, but I suspect the Yorks are also too cowardly to fight back against abuse, even when their team -- by far the weakest in the NFL last year -- is the one most victimized by the Browns' ongoing manipulation of the league. So they'll end up drafting some bum at #2 (be it Trubumsky or Solobum) when by all rights they should have been entitled to Myles Garrett.

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:

Frankly, I'd like to see the Niners trade out of the first round entirely, and simultaneously release a public statement calling out Cleveland for intentionally losing games for draft leverage -- making a mockery of the NFL's written and unwritten rules -- and the league for tolerating such obvious actions. But the NFL leadership -- if it can be called that -- are cowards from Goodell on down, and will not move to stem a pattern of behavior that has been going on for at least two years. Or perhaps they're just too stupid to know how to remedy the problem (and that includes the clearly manipulated Osweiler situation).

Well, it's a nice wish, but I suspect the Yorks are also too cowardly to fight back against abuse, even when their team -- by far the weakest in the NFL last year -- is the one most victimized by the Browns' ongoing manipulation of the league. So they'll end up drafting some bum at #2 (be it Trubumsky or Solobum) when by all rights they should have been entitled to Myles Garrett.

This would be a stupid thing to say, even if the Yorks believed it, without any proof. The rest of the league eould just dismiss it as sour grapes. Without a coach or a senior and respected player from the Browns making an open admission, it would be pointless and anyway is probably completely unjustified.

And LOL at the ridiculous comment that the rest of the draft are bums.

Originally posted by 49erInTheMidwest:

Originally posted by 49erThrowback:
Frankly, I'd like to see the Niners trade out of the first round entirely, and simultaneously release a public statement calling out Cleveland for intentionally losing games for draft leverage -- making a mockery of the NFL's written and unwritten rules -- and the league for tolerating such obvious actions. But the NFL leadership -- if it can be called that -- are cowards from Goodell on down, and will not move to stem a pattern of behavior that has been going on for at least two years. Or perhaps they're just too stupid to know how to remedy the problem (and that includes the clearly manipulated Osweiler situation).

Well, it's a nice wish, but I suspect the Yorks are also too cowardly to fight back against abuse, even when their team -- by far the weakest in the NFL last year -- is the one most victimized by the Browns' ongoing manipulation of the league. So they'll end up drafting some bum at #2 (be it Trubumsky or Solobum) when by all rights they should have been entitled to Myles Garrett.

So, I guess he doesn't like my mock?

Final 7-round, 10-pick version up.

At first glance, NCommand's mock, taking a 2nd QB with our third pick (#66) should mean every pick from #4th pick on, should be one rd too late to get the player NC wants...being set back one rd by virtue of taking an extra qb with our 3rd pick (#66).

Retracing a moment, if Trubs with all his cone drills, speed, etc, is truly the best QB and most ready to start, it seems only right to use our 1st pick on him. He has two large Question Marks, however. The obvious is too brief a resume...ONE season. If that is enough for Shalyn to make their decision, fine by me. Second question mark is his bowl game. He just didn't have a great performance...nor really even a good one.

Yet in drills he did fine. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Low end experience and a fair to middlin' bowl game ....leaves me unconvinced. But we are guessing at what Kyle and John want. Our guesses don't matter.

2nd pick(#34) ER Jordan Willis....great pick

3rd pick (#66) Peterman . MD had him at 88, and Mike Mayock did not have Peterman in his top 5 Qbs, and CBS did not list him in the top 3 rds. So this pick is out there, but after PHX turned me onto him, he has become my favorite pick for qb.

By rights, it would seem from here on out NC would be one rd behind where he wanted to be because of taking 2 early Qbs. As it turns out, this wasn't the case:
Below is a comparison of NC's mock vs Mad Dog, who has been right there with the big hitters in draftology and no one does any better than he. So MD is the mock i used for comparison

Rd 1 (pick #2)Trubs. MD DE, Solomon Thomas ...my favorite player, but taking Solomon could make for odd man out, ie, AA. This is a good finesse of that issue.

Rd 2 (pick #34) ER Jordan Willis. MD takes him (at #40)

Rd 3 (pick #66) Peterman...my favorite Qb. MD #88 There was a consensus that he was around this # , ESPN, Mayock, etc.

Rd 4 (Pick #109) CB Brian Allen. MD #112

Rd 4 (pick #143) WILL Elijah Lee. MD #118

Rd 5 (pick #146) WR Josh Malone. MD #144

Rd 5 (pick #161) TE Jordan Leggett. MD #157

Rd 6 (pick #198) ER Keion Adams MD #180

Rd 6 (pick #202). WR/PR Artavius Scott. MD #202

Rd 7 (pick #219) RB Aaron Jones. MD #225


Based on the above NC and Mad Dog differ in 1st picks Trubs vs Solomon Thomas (my favorite player)

On 2nd pick ER, #34, Jordan Willis, that is essentially the same for MD at #40.

On 3rd pick(#66), Peterman, MD has him at #88, a substantial difference. I don't think he lasts til #88, but CBS didn't have him in top 3 rds, nor did Mayock nor ESPN.

On 4th pick, CB Brian Allen, NC (pick #109). MD #112

On 5th pick WILL Elijah LEE, NC (Pick # 143) MD #118, largest discrepancy after rd 3,

On 6th pick, WR Josh Malone NC (146). MD #144

On 7th pick TE Jordan Leggett. NC (#160). MD #157

On 8th pick. ER. Keion Adams. NC (#198). MD 180

On 9th pick WR/PR Artavius Scott. NC (#202). MD #202

On 10th pick. RB Aaron Jones. NC (219). MD #225


In summary, taking an extra Qb early, Peterman in Rd 3 (pick #66) really did not result in NC's mock being 1 rd behind beginning in rd 4, right after the insertion of the Peterman pick. You can follow Mad Dog's picks and they are quite similar to NC's...which i did not expect. That said, the upside of 2 QBs, and taken early so they didn't "get away", really changed NC's draft at one pick ...#66 Peterman, a QB,...instead of a DL starter...ie we got one less D player than otherwise.

As for the positives, those were already explained by having 2 or 3 potential FR QBs. This still leaves the door open for a Cousins signing, but does NOT rely on it. And if kyle makes 2 or gasp, 3 FR QBs, you can figure their worth wit the draft Calculator...a 6 pak would do it. 2 ones, 2 twos, 2 threes...for each potential Starting FR QB.

Best thing about this is Peterman hasn't been able to develop a bunch of bad habits, so he will be a lot easier to coach up, assuming we take Peterman. Peterman, great fundamentals,+ great HC/OC = Success.

Risk/ reward: Basically we could have had one more D starter, but young Qbs with good fundamentals... i like that combo. Kyle can make either or both FR QBs..That is the trade off for another potential starting D starter, and i like that bet. This is off the wall thinking for a mock...out of the box, if you will...but it fits kyle to a tee. Is this the way it goes down? IDK, but i sure hope so.

Finally, besides 2 QBs, NC's mock gets 2 ERs, CB, WILL, 2 WRs...one also a PR, TE, and last but not least, a RB. Covered virtually all the bases. OL, WRs, and RB were covered in FA. It was different, but i love this mock.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

Based on the above NC and Mad Dog differ in 1st picks Trubs vs Solomon Thomas (my favorite player)
On 2nd pick ER, #34, Jordan Willis, that is essentially the same for MD at #40.
On 3rd pick(#66), Peterman, MD has him at #88, a substantial difference. I don't think he lasts til #88, but CBS didn't have him in top 3 rds, nor did Mayock nor ESPN.
On 4th pick, CB Brian Allen, NC (pick #109). MD #112
On 5th pick WILL Elijah LEE, NC (Pick # 143) MD #118, largest discrepancy after rd 3,
On 6th pick, WR Josh Malone NC (146). MD #144
On 7th pick TE Jordan Leggett. NC (#160). MD #157
On 8th pick. ER. Keion Adams. NC (#198). MD 180
On 9th pick WR/PR Artavius Scott. NC (#202). MD #202
On 10th pick. RB Aaron Jones. NC (219). MD #225

Finally, besides 2 QBs, NC's mock gets 2 ERs, CB, WILL, 2 WRs...one also a PR, TE, and last but not least, a RB. Covered virtually all the bases. OL, WRs, and RB were covered in FA. It was different, but i love this mock.

Terrific breakdown doc...appreciate you reviewing this with a fine tooth comb. You bring up a great point about Trubisky in his sun bowl game too. Stanford brought constant heat that game but that game is exactly why I think Kyle loves him. That was an NFL-like defense that game where he was constantly harassed and moved off his spot and clearly faced some tough adversity behind an OL that kept breaking down and getting dominated; and the refs were allowing physical play/illegal contact and not calling any PI. And his receivers were absolutely atrocious! Naturally, his stat line isn't going to look great going up against a defense like that (think, Seattle)...yet, at the end of the day, despite not having his best day, he ended up 23 for 38, 60.5% and 2 TD's, 2 INT's and 1 Fumble (ref) but was never phased. At the end of the game, when it mattered most, despite a few big mistakes, he drove his team down to tie it but a missed blocking assignment again (on Thomas of all players) lead to falling just short on a two-point conversion. But that's the moxy you want. Thomas is your favorite player? He had a terrific game but IMHO, when you watch Thomas' highlights of that game, the player that really stands out is Mitch Trubisky (and I was focused on Thomas). That tells you something. You want a QB that despite not having his best game, adversity everywhere, still gives your team a chance to win in the end.

Yeah, a fan must be patient here. This is technically, year one of the ShanaLynch rebuild. They'll probably never have a top 2 pick again. Kyle knows going in, it's going to take two full years, at least, to develop a FQB and when rebuilding, putting all your eggs into one basket is never a good idea...hence, why ShanaLynch keep preaching the long-term approach and wanting to "do it the right way." You've got Hoyer as a QB-teacher of the offense for the next two years (who could still surprise) but in every interview, he notes he's here to teach this offense. He knows he's going to play a huge part in developing a QB starting, this year. Now, it just comes down to which one...or in my case, which ones?

Not every year are you going to be able to get the two QB's you want without having to give up a lot for them. We sit at #2 and #66. This means, we've got first crack at them before anyone else. Trubisky is a first round talent. Take him in the first round (does it REALLY matter where in the round?). Peterman is projected to go in the 3rd round. Take him in the third round (does it really matter where in the round?).

This is a long-term plan and for those fans claiming "value," no player is going to get your more value than a FQB (whether on the field or later, in draft capital via a trade). For those who want to use that third on another player other than Peterman, keep in mind, that player is in the third round for a reason --- he needs development for at least a year; no different than both QB's.

Overall, if you can walk away with two potential FQB's who have few scars from the college game (i.e. spread offense), who can can be slowly and properly developed within the WCO and then be developed by Kyle Shanahan himself, that's a huge win. If you can also walk away with a potential Elephant edge rusher as well as another edge rusher (from the LDE/SAM up to 70% of the time), that's a huge win...throw in potential starters (Allen & Malone) and significant role/developmental-players (Lee, Leggett, Scott & Jones), I'm walking away with a huge smile on my face knowing we just laid the foundation in year one.

Ive shifted from Thomas to Trubisky at the #2 for about a week or so now, so Im with you there. Trubisky has elite tools at his disposal with both the arm and legs. Saying he is a clean slate for KS is a great point. MT is ready to be molded in to a great NFL QB, and KS can take his time with that with Hoyer on roster. The 49ers QB room is primed for a rookie QB.

Im not sold on Jordan Willis. His combine numbers were great, but he looks slower in games. I think he is a finished product, and won't get much better than what he is now. Im not saying he won't be good, but I see a low ceiling for him.

Nate Peterman, the WZ darling. I like the prospect, but early 3rd? You are inexplicably reaching for a 2nd QB here, when you should have landed top talent that could compete for a starting role. I don't like the logic behind this pick at all. Paying a premium for a 3rd string QB at best is highly questionable.

For Brian Allen, I love his traits and size, but he would be a frustrating player to have on the field. I think he is just winging it as a CB, and needs a ton of development. Upside is huge with Allen, but it might be a while (or never) before we see it.

Either way, just my opinions, good work NC.

Originally posted by theninermaniac:
Ive shifted from Thomas to Trubisky at the #2 for about a week or so now, so Im with you there. Trubisky has elite tools at his disposal with both the arm and legs. Saying he is a clean slate for KS is a great point. MT is ready to be molded in to a great NFL QB, and KS can take his time with that with Hoyer on roster. The 49ers QB room is primed for a rookie QB.

Im not sold on Jordan Willis. His combine numbers were great, but he looks slower in games. I think he is a finished product, and won't get much better than what he is now. Im not saying he won't be good, but I see a low ceiling for him.

Nate Peterman, the WZ darling. I like the prospect, but early 3rd? You are inexplicably reaching for a 2nd QB here, when you should have landed top talent that could compete for a starting role. I don't like the logic behind this pick at all. Paying a premium for a 3rd string QB at best is highly questionable.

For Brian Allen, I love his traits and size, but he would be a frustrating player to have on the field. I think he is just winging it as a CB, and needs a ton of development. Upside is huge with Allen, but it might be a while (or never) before we see it.

Either way, just my opinions, good work NC.

Nice. Really appreciate the points and noted concerns!

I like the growth of Willis every year (Growth every year: TFL = 1, 7, 14 & 17.5 and Sacks = 1, 4.5, 8.5 & 11.5). But like you said, that may already be his ceiling...that may be true. In this case, if he can't become the dominant Elephant we need, at worst, he could become the 70% rusher from the SAM/DE in nickel.

I would not be surprised to see Peterman go in the 2nd TBH. Teams that are looking at him are the Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, etc. MadDog has him mid-third. We won't get him in the 4th so 3rd is your option if you want him and I'm guessing Kyle would love the chance to raise another Kirk Counsin-like pro-style QB. He has the option to go the complete opposite route the Redskins took with Kirk and stockpile the position of value (and not put all you eggs in one basket).

You're right about Allen. When you get into the 4th, you're talking about a player who has all the tools but needs time to adjust and develop at the pro level. No guarantee there for sure.

The big change I would have is I'm not 2x dipping on qb's. Carrying 4 qb's is rare and we'd just be kidding ourselves that there could be a competition between Mitch and Pederman. Top pick always gets every opportunity to win the job. I'd probably take a run stuffer like Delvin Tomlinson instead there. That opens the door to rotate Mitchell in at 3 with AA and really shore up our run defense.

Doing a re-read, just thot of the beauty of a Trubs pick...or certainly "advertising " the fact we want Trubs. This puts Cleve in a bind, if they want Trubs . That means they have to fish or cut bait with Myles. If as advertised, Cleve wants Trubs, then our considering Trubs as our #1 pick, means they either give up the .Myles pick and take Trubs,which is the general consensus, or they take Myles and give up on their #1 QB pick. If this is the case, then Shalyn just applied the nut cutters to Cleve's balz. They obviously aren't going to get both.
Shrewd move by our guys. However, I think Cleve has their eyes set on Watson, not Trubs. And in that case, our taking Trubs wouldn't bother them. Be an interesting situation tho if Trubs is their boy. Then they have to decide, Myles or Trubs.

If that is the situation, then they have an option.. Swapping firsts with us. IF they do, then we can offer them swaps for a 6 pack...they ought to see the irony in that, because that is what they charged Philly last yr for the #1 Qb....2 ones, 2 twos, and 2 threes...and all but the ones could be this yr i think. I've gone over this scenario a dozen times or more, and still am not sure if we should do it or not. Sure makes a lot of sense, but having DeFo AND Myles ...ummm....sound like Patrick and Cowboy? Sure made me think of that. Anyway, no way of knowing what Cleve is going to do at QB. But we know this. If they screw QB pick up one more time, everyone will be fired , including their owner. This would be their third screw up at QB and may be their 4th. Have to check that.

Oh, in re-reading my post above, i saw the "we could finesse the AA issue if we took Trubs instead of Solomon." Anyone not understand that, let me know. Late, it occurred to me some fans here may not play bridge.and that may have been confusing.

Originally posted by tjd808185:
The big change I would have is I'm not 2x dipping on qb's. Carrying 4 qb's is rare and we'd just be kidding ourselves that there could be a competition between Mitch and Pederman. Top pick always gets every opportunity to win the job. I'd probably take a run stuffer like Delvin Tomlinson instead there. That opens the door to rotate Mitchell in at 3 with AA and really shore up our run defense.

Correct, Peterman would certainly push Barkley off the roster (Hoyer, Trubisky & Peterman). Remember RGIII vs. Cousins? Why couldn't Peterman genuinely push Trubisky? How many cases have we seen in the NFL where the 2nd or 3rd QB taken ends up eventually, beating out the top pick. But you're right...we'd give Trubisky every opportunity. Yeah, good call on Tomlinson...I really like him too. We've met with Julie'n Davenport, Tim Williams, Kareem Hunt & Carlos Henderson around that area too.