Mid-Feb Mock Plan (Post-GQ Signing, Foster News)

Based on the new news both good and bad, I had to re-do my mock.

Key Assumptions:

- The 49ers will be big spenders. Not sure where I heard it (Locked on 49ers podcast?), but the 49ers need to spend a lot of money this off-season to support Garoppolo as well as hit a certain threshold of cap utilization. I expect the 49ers to spend ~$50M in resignings/FA and ~$12M in the draft in order to achieve that %.

- The 49ers will be savvy - pay money for those that really deserve it, and utilize their 2 year approach for low/mid-tier signings similar to Goodwin and Marsh.

- We traded at least 5 times on draft day 2017. That's a common approach between Lynch and Baalke. We our 2nd round pick gone due to the Garoppolo trade, we look to recoup that pick, along add more mid-round picks, to rebuild this roster.

Resignings: Reid, Kilgore, Gilliam, Mostert (RFA), and Coyle
*The main surprise here is Reid. I think he tests the market, but doesn't get any meaningful offers. He signs with us for a 1 yr deal.

Extensions: Tartt, Ward, Pinion, and Nelson
*Core players across our secondary and ST units. Ward resigns but cuts his salary in half.

Release: Beadles
*With the Kilgore and Gilliam signings, Beadles is now expandable.

Total: $15M spent

Free Agency: Total - $32M spent

Andrew Norwell - G/T - Panthers | A catch for all NFL teams, we OVERPAY to sign Norwell in a front-loaded deal to man the LG spot. Is he a perfect fit? No. But like Q. Nelson from Notre Dame, he'll be a consistent starter regardless of scheme. Could eventually replace Staley at LT. All of our offensive linemen are either on rookie or below-market deals. So we shouldn't fear spending on OL like ATL or PHI has done.

Anthony Hitchens - LB - Cowboys | I love the scheme fit here. He can play SAM, MIKE, or WILL in our scheme. With questions around Foster, and talent voids across each LB position, Hitchens addresses multiple needs and concerns. He is an all around solid LBer - strong against the run and pass with sideline speed. With the attention on Zach Brown, Tahir Whitehead, and others, Hitchens could be signed for a reasonable deal.

Bryon Maxwell - CB - Seahawks | I think it's asinine to think what kind of money Fuller, Johnson, and Brown are going to get relative to their inconsistent play over the past couple of years. You sometimes use FA as a stop gap rather than a permanent fill. The economical way is to find a scheme fit player for a 2-3 year deal to hold down the fort until you develop a better one. Maxwell can be that guy - he thrives in this scheme. But he also is an example of why you should spend wisely on FA - he signed a mega deal with PHI, got traded to MIA, and then got cut. He'll do well here.

Trent Murphy - DE - Redskins | Similar to my comments on Maxwell, I'm very uncomfortable shelling out the big money for Ziggy Ansah due to injury and consistency concerns. I want to sign a hungry player that wants to earn that mega deal. Enter Trent Murphy - an oversized 3-4 OLB that plays his natural DE position. I see him playing big end or LEO as a rotational player. Bay area ties and playing time make this mutually attractive.

Taylor Gabriel - WR - Falcons | Shanahan connection. Adds speed, depth, and knowledge to our WR unit. There are rumors on how players want to go to SF as a destination with Shanahan and Garoppolo. Gabriel is a very likely candidate to do just that with his success in the scheme. This doesn't fully address our void for a big bodied WR, but it's another step in the right direction.

Player Trades: $7M spent

Arik Armstead for Shane Ray - DE/LB - Broncos
*The Broncos are tight on cap room assuming they go after Cousins. One of the interesting dynamics is that Barrett - a RFA but a UDFA a couple of years ago - has outplayed Ray on the field. Ray is entering his 4th year and the Broncos need to decide on the 5th year option. They have a big need at DL. Armstead has a similar backstory - under-performed relative to his draft selection. With SAM/LEO being a weakness, I like this trade for both teams.

7th round pick for Allen Hurns - WR - Jaguars
*Assuming Robinson resigns, Jacksonville will look to shed bloated contracts. Hurns is scheduled to earn $7M in 2018 with no penalty if cut. With our cap space, I'd love the opportunity to kick the tires on him for a year. He's an exceptionally skilled route runner but lacks elite speed. A good understudy to Garcon, Hurns rounds out an upgraded WR unit.

NFL Draft:

Darnold, Rosen, Chubb, Mayfield (CLE->NYJ), Nelson, Barkley (NYJ->CLE), Fitzpatrick, Edwards, Jackson

TRADE: 49ers trade 1st and 3rd round picks for the Bills two 1st round picks. Bills trade up for Josh Allen - QB.

R1: Carlton Davis - CB - Auburn (via BUF)| I know this isn't a sexy selection, but I think Davis is the best CB for our specific scheme. Jackson is off the board, and I think Davis after 1 year can be at the same level as Jackson. Davis has the H/W/S you look for in a press corner. It may be a tad early for him, but I expect a run on corners in the late 1st. Upgrade to Mabin/Johnson/Hall.

TRADE: 49ers trade 1st and 5th round (via NYJ) for Browns two 2nds (#33, #65). Browns trade up to snag either Sutton or OT to leapfrog the Rams.

R2: Ronald Jones - RB - USC (via CLE) | Many love him, but few truly understand how great of a fit he is for Shanahan's scheme. Is he a bit like Williams? Yes, but Jones has the size, build, and athleticism to be a potential ROY in our scheme. Goodbye Hyde, hello 3 headed monster.

R2: James Daniels - C - Iowa (via NO) | Daniels or Ragnow at the spot. Kilgore isn't the long-term answer at C for us, but Daniels flashes great power and agility to be an ideal fit as a ZBS anchor. At 6-4, he can handle the DT/NTs that are dominant within our division. 10 year starter here.

R2: Dallas Goedert - TE - SDSU (via PHI thru CLE) | Candidly, the TE class screams of 2nd-4th round picks for top of the class. I don't think there's anyone that seriously stands out from the rest of the pact. Goedert offers the most upside as a move TE in our scheme. He'll provide better mismatches vs. Celek, but a duo of Kittle and Goedert will give Jimmy G. a double headed monster that he had in NE with Gronk and Bennett.

R3: Uchenna Nwosu - SAM/DE - USC (via CHI) | Raw, but oozes with potential to be a fantastic LEO. He's got the athletic skills to become a serious pass rusher in our scheme, but will need coaching and conditioning to get him right. I see him learning the ropes behind Ray and Dumervil in year 1.

R4: Alex Cappa - OT - Humboldt St. (via PIT) | As we think about the future at OT, we have question marks at both LT and RT. Staley maybe has 2 years left while Brown is entering the last year of his deal. Cappa will be a project player, and Gilliam will provide needed security, but giving him the opportunity to learn the ropes in year 1 will help him thrive in year 2 - most likely replacing Brown.

R6: Dee Delaney - CB - Miami | Good size and physical player. We look to strike gold twice with both Colbert and now Delaney with the Miami pipeline.

R7: Steven Dunbar - WR - Houston (via KC) | Competes with Bourne as a gunner on ST and reserve WR. Dunbar is unproven, but could be a late gem.

Depth Chart:

QB: Garoppolo/Beathard
RB: Jones*/Brieda/Williams/Mostert
FB: Juice
TE: Kittle/Goedert*/Celek

WR: Garcon/Hurns*
WR: Goodwin/Gabriel*
WR: Taylor/Dunbar*

LT: Staley/Cappa*
LG: Norwell*
C: Daniels*/Kilgore
RG: Garnett/Tomlinson
RT: Brown/Gilliam

RE: Thomas/Murphy*
NT: Mitchell/Jones
DT: Buckner/Day
LE: Ray*/Dumervil/Nowsu*

SLB: Harold/Marsh
MLB: Hitchens*/Lee
WLB: Smith/(Reid)/Coyle (Susp. Foster)

CB: Witherspoon/Delaney*
CB: Maxwell*/Davis*
NB: Williams
FS: Colbert/Ward
SS: Tartt/Reid/Jones

ST: Gould, Pinion, Nelson

Man my dude... Nice work, thanks for putting in the time! Shoot me a PM if you wanna talk 49er ball and discuss networking of some sort.

First off, are you saying this is the last year of the window to spend with cap with no roll over? If so, isn't that more of a reason to resist over spending? Though I must say, you spent just all about that I'm personally willing to spend myself.

I want the window for extensions and a key piece or two to add for a SB run.. And really you can say f**k holding onto space for a difference maker because the eagles and jags shown you can spend and be successful. Flexibility is important doe, cause I'm not in it for just a short window.. I want another 20 year run

Man that's a lot of trades and I'd love it if it went down this way. So much talent to be had in the first 2-3 rounds.

As always I love the effort and getting creative with trades. Definitely gives us all something to think about.

If Hurns could be had for one of our 7th round picks we would have to jump all over that.

Daniels doesn't fall that far imo but pretty good overall. Would love those trades.

A lot to take in here lol.

I'll break it down to things I liked and didn't.

things I liked:

resigning Reid and in FA I like the Anthony Hitchens signing.
draft: Love Ronald Jones, James Daniels, and Cappa..like Davis but not where you have us drafting him.

Things I don't like:

Extending Ward, not sure why he would take a pay cut when he's guaranteed $8.5 million? I would bet he'd rather be cut, take a one yr deal and hit FA vs signing a cheap extension.

I dislike all of your FA signings outside of Hitchens. I can't see this team overpaying for a OG, Murphy imo is a depth player and we have no idea how he is after that ACL. Maxwell might not make it through training camp the way he's played the past couple of yrs (just a depth signing). Gabriel I can see happening and can live with it, if it's to replace Arob.

trades: IMO Shane Ray is worlds better than AA...he at least showed something when he was on the field. Would be thrilled if that happened but it doesn't seem likely. I want ZERO part of Allen Hurns and his hamstrings and ankles. I'm not taking a flyer on a guy that has a $7 million dollar cap hit. would be a waste of a 7th rd pick and $7 million IMO.

Draft: I know everyone loves the idea of getting a couple 1sts from the Bills, BUT I don't see them trading BOTH. Especially for Allen. Davis at this point would be a reach and I'm completely fine with our current TEs.

that is a stacked roster!

The only thing i dont like to giving up a 3rd to trade back in the first. Trading back 11 spots in the first so a team can pick up a highly regarded QB should be enough alone to get their two 1st rounders. Maybe a 5th in addition at the most IMO

Elway has officially lost his damn mind if he trades Shane Ray for Arik Armstead.

Originally posted by SmokeCrabtrees:

Man my dude... Nice work, thanks for putting in the time! Shoot me a PM if you wanna talk 49er ball and discuss networking of some sort.

First off, are you saying this is the last year of the window to spend with cap with no roll over? If so, isn't that more of a reason to resist over spending? Though I must say, you spent just all about that I'm personally willing to spend myself.

I want the window for extensions and a key piece or two to add for a SB run.. And really you can say f**k holding onto space for a difference maker because the eagles and jags shown you can spend and be successful. Flexibility is important doe, cause I'm not in it for just a short window.. I want another 20 year run

Let's do it!

What I heard was regarding cap utilization - not cap roll over. A cap expert can correct me on this, but it's something like you need to start utilizing an average of 85-90% of your salary cap space - otherwise the unused portion goes back to the NFLPA as part of the CBA. The podcast mentioned that Paraag stated they are looking to spend about $60M in the offseason, which would put the 49ers in that utilization range. The podcast could be wrong, but this isn't the time to be cheap with the Garoppolo signing.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

A lot to take in here lol.

I'll break it down to things I liked and didn't.

things I liked:

resigning Reid and in FA I like the Anthony Hitchens signing.
draft: Love Ronald Jones, James Daniels, and Cappa..like Davis but not where you have us drafting him.

Things I don't like:

Extending Ward, not sure why he would take a pay cut when he's guaranteed $8.5 million? I would bet he'd rather be cut, take a one yr deal and hit FA vs signing a cheap extension.

I dislike all of your FA signings outside of Hitchens. I can't see this team overpaying for a OG, Murphy imo is a depth player and we have no idea how he is after that ACL. Maxwell might not make it through training camp the way he's played the past couple of yrs (just a depth signing). Gabriel I can see happening and can live with it, if it's to replace Arob.

trades: IMO Shane Ray is worlds better than AA...he at least showed something when he was on the field. Would be thrilled if that happened but it doesn't seem likely. I want ZERO part of Allen Hurns and his hamstrings and ankles. I'm not taking a flyer on a guy that has a $7 million dollar cap hit. would be a waste of a 7th rd pick and $7 million IMO.

Draft: I know everyone loves the idea of getting a couple 1sts from the Bills, BUT I don't see them trading BOTH. Especially for Allen. Davis at this point would be a reach and I'm completely fine with our current TEs.

Is Ward fully guaranteed that now? I thought he is entitled to it staring in May/June. The 49ers could release him without any penalty right before that time, which screws Ward over. Instead, the 49ers could extend Ward by 1-2 years, and convert that salary to a signing bonus to lower his cap hit.

Understand the hate for the FA - it's not a sexy class. Outside of Norwell, I'm trying to emulate what the 49ers would do in free agency through how they conducted themselves previously. The Hitchens and Norwell signings are like the Juice (record setting) and M. Smith (expensive) signings of last year. The rest are on 2-3 year, short term deals.

I explained the Ray trade in my initial post. They have a clog at the position with Miller, Barrett, and Ray performing at a high level. Assuming they go after Cousins, they need to think about how they are going to manage the cap short and long-term. If Barrett is the long-term starter, you'd want to get something for Ray before he walks. There have been some reports and rumblings that they may look to trade Ray and keep Barrett. The Elway-Lynch ties and mutual needs make a Armstead (1st rounder 2015) and Ray (1st rounder) plausable.

I like your take on FA as I think most people want to think about only next season when it comes to these mocks but finding stop gaps are important. Having said that I still do not like Norwell as I think Ryan Jensen would be cheaper and have more of an impact in this scheme.

Some opinions I've shared on a few other threads as well... First off I like your mock a lot and would love it if this really happens. I think your depth chart looks like a pretty good playoff team if healthy.

I love the Norwell signing. If we can't get him I think Josh Kline would be a good signing as well.

I love Ronald Jones II. Really he is the only top Running Back that I have seen this draft looking so nice running the outside zone. Saquon, Guice and the rest are mostly running between the tackles or right off tackle. I think Saquon would have the speed to hit the outside zone. He probably won't be around for our first pick anyways and I'm concerned that he will get killed in the NFL because he's always trying to jump over everyone. I think Shanahan really wants to get his outside zone runs going. Breida looked awesome and I'm excited for Williams. You have to have depth at the running back position with all the injuries and what not. I think Jones/Williams/Breida would be awesome. No need for resigning Hyde.

I like the CB pick in the First Round. Carlton would be a good choice if we trade back and Jackson/Ward are gone.

I would rather go with a WR in the 3rd round than SAM/DE. I don't remember us using SAM all that much last year. We seemed to be in Nickel a lot. I think it might make sense to draft a Linebacker later in the draft that can play SAM but also be depth at Mike or Will. That Hitchens signing would be money.

Everyone seems to be concerned about Ziggy Ansah's Age, injury history and consistency. I think these concerns are unfounded. He played 73 out of 80 or so games the last 5 years. That's right around 90 percent, which isn't too bad. He didn't play meaningful minutes until his senior year in college, so he doesn't have as much football mileage as a lot of other guys his age. He had 44 sacks in 73 games, that's an average of 0.6 sacks per game. That's pretty close to Lawrence/ Reggie White / Bruce Smith who were around around 0.7-0.8 sacks per game. He's an elite pass rusher and with several years of mileage left. I think it's an easy decision to pay him if we can convince him to come.

I wouldn't mind paying E.J. Gaines or Rashaan Melvin a bunch to come play corner for us. I think we will spend big on EDGE and CB's to help us get off the field on third downs.

Lots of stuff to consider GEEK. Here's what I think:

Free agency - solid but not spectacular

Trades - don't think the AA deal will work straight up. But like the Hurns trade

Draft - only problem is Davis at CB in the late first. That's a reach. Would rather take I. Oliver in the late first to work with his former teammate. The rest of the draft is solid.

Nice offseason!

I agree.

There is lots to nit pick with this off-season but to did a great job of thinking outside the box.

Our team is improved and thats all that matters. Nice work.

Originally posted by GEEK:
Is Ward fully guaranteed that now? I thought he is entitled to it staring in May/June. The 49ers could release him without any penalty right before that time, which screws Ward over. Instead, the 49ers could extend Ward by 1-2 years, and convert that salary to a signing bonus to lower his cap hit.

Understand the hate for the FA - it's not a sexy class. Outside of Norwell, I'm trying to emulate what the 49ers would do in free agency through how they conducted themselves previously. The Hitchens and Norwell signings are like the Juice (record setting) and M. Smith (expensive) signings of last year. The rest are on 2-3 year, short term deals.

I explained the Ray trade in my initial post. They have a clog at the position with Miller, Barrett, and Ray performing at a high level. Assuming they go after Cousins, they need to think about how they are going to manage the cap short and long-term. If Barrett is the long-term starter, you'd want to get something for Ray before he walks. There have been some reports and rumblings that they may look to trade Ray and keep Barrett. The Elway-Lynch ties and mutual needs make a Armstead (1st rounder 2015) and Ray (1st rounder) plausable.

as of now Ward is on the books for $8.5 million, SF can cut him and save that cash no doubt. IF that happens then he will go to FA . He will more than likely get paid something similar to what you're talking about in a extension (1 yr $5 million)... If he plays well he get's to hit FA again and make much much much more money then if he resigned for what you're asking him to do. I'm just looking at it from his prospective.

According to OTC Norwell will be the highest paid OG and is looking at a 5 yr $60 million deal...I can't see Kyle paying for that, just can't. He wants system fit players on offense (which aren't always the highest paid guys) and IMO he's not really a ideal system fit either. I think they will spend on defensive players because he's even stated you NEED talent on defense.

If there's a position to have a "clog" at it's pass rusher.

why would they trade for AA who's contract is up at the same time as Ray's if they're looking at clearing space anyway? That doesn't make sense man. AA has a $3.1 million dollar cap hit this yr. Ray has a $2.9 million cap hit IF they really want to clear some cap space it will be in the form of cutting Talib (save $11 million), CJ Anderson (save $4.5 million), and possibly trying to trade one of their two WRs.

Good mock! Really like Jones, Nwosa and Daniels and some of your moves are not things I thought about...nice to have my mind jogged.

I seldom try to include trades because it seems even more subjective than mocking, but trading down with this pick makes sense if none of the elite players are still on the board. The some of the latest "professional" mocks I've seen have LB R Smith and DE Davenport dropping around the niners pick. If that happens they won't trade back in my opinion. Those two guys are special players in positions of need and would greatly enhance the niners defense.

I'm not sure the niners need to reach for a CB. I understand the need and if you believe in Davis then OK, but there are other positions of need that may have better players available and at this point in development they need to think BPA in the first round.

As for FAs, I love the idea of solving at least one OL spot with a FA. Norwell is one of the top FAs and it will be interesting to see if he wants to move west. Love Gabriel signing as he knows Shanahan's system (one year's worth).

It will be interesting to see the draft and free agent philosophy Lynch/Shanahan use. For instance, I loved the Baalke/Harbaugh method of picking up DBs that fit rather than top DBs in the draft. Of course, they had a great defensive backfield coach!