Needs: The obvious ones will be safety, cornerback, and OL, both along the interior, and Staley's eventual replacement. However, I do feel that our team, thus far through the season, is quite well balanced, and that our perceived "needs" after free agency will be much different than they are now.
Who Stays:
Kyle Juszczyk, FB: This is a tough one, because we are dedicating a fair amount of cap space to a universally underappreciated and underutilized position. With that being said, he is a very large piece of our offensive identify and game plan, he will not be easy to replace, and going into his 30's, should come on a more attractive contract than the one that was required to get him originally.
Ronald Blair, DE: He is just a plain good football player. He has flashed since joining the team, and is, thus far, showing more than ever. We believe in a healthy rotation along the DL, and this is a perfect piece to spell our DEs who have their own well documented struggles staying healthy.
Levine Toilolo, TE: Why not? He comes cheap, and can act as an extra linemen, or red zone target. With Celek being gone, this is our TE3 for the year.
Ross Dwelley, TE: Again, an inexpensive option behind George Kittle. Easy tender.
Sheldon Day, DT: This one will depend on how other teams view his worth, but he is young, productive, and he and DJ Jones make the interior of our DL a non-issue.
Matt Breida, RB: The niners should have considered Breida our RB1 a long time ago. With him staying healthy so far, there is no reason to continue denying his role on this roster.
Nick Mullens, QB: Easy tender. This is our window, and we need a serviceable backup just in case we need to get through a game or two without Jimmy G. Can always trade him, or get a comp pick for him, next year.
Jeff Wilson, RB: Another easy tender. He will be gone the year after, but we keep him for now while we own his rights for cheap.
Who Goes:
Jimmie Ward and Jason Verrett, DB: I still believe Ward is a serviceable back end of the roster talent, and a talent of Verrett's caliber is tough to dump, but the best ability is availability. Verrett came in for 2 plays after Ahkello went down, got torched on both plays, and then was on the injury report by the end of the game. Can't spend money or roster space on these guys.
Arik Armstead, DT: I really wish we could keep AA. It was said from the second the 2015 draft season kicked off; Arik was a high ceiling prospect who would need a lot of time to develop. Well, he finally appears to have developed into that high ceiling 1st round caliber player; it's just a shame it happened at the end of his 5th year, for another team to reap the benefits. If he ends up being cheaper than our homer red and gold colored glasses expect, then you keep him. Otherwise, there is just too much talent to pay for to spend big money on the 4th priority along the DL.
Kendrick Bourne, WR: I liked the guy, and definitely wanted him to make the roster this year over Jordan Matthews. However, with his contract up, we can't fret over a nice, but easily replaceable player on the back end of our roster like Bourne.
Jerrick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman, RB: Do I believe, in a perfect world where everyone is healthy, that they can contribute more to the team than Breida and Mostert? Yes. In a meaningful way that outweighs the contract discrepancy? No way. And that's assuming they can even stay healthy. Would much rather open up cap space for some more impactful talent.
Mark Nzeocha, LB: We will need to dump some salary, and dropping Mark will carry 0 dead dollars.
Marquise Goodwin, WR: This is a really hard choice, and if we can afford to keep him, we do. Goodwin has world class speed, and that is something that is not easily replaced. He had a great 2017, but hasn't been overly productive for a while now, for a few different reasons. Regardless, however, he is vital to making our offense click, and his stats don't paint the full picture. Rest assured, Shanny will miss having Goodwin on this roster, and efforts will be made to replace his function in the offensive scheme and play calls. Releasing him will create quite a bit of dead money, so this is the least likely of the cuts, but Kittle, Buckner, and the free agent acquisitions carry more value to our Superbowl aspirations. Perhaps a restructure is in the cards? I am making this move with the hindsight of my draft picks. Not having that luxury in the real world might make Goodwin untouchable.
Who Comes:
Byron Jones, CB: Jones has really redefined his career since switching to CB from FS. He is tailor made for this scheme, has been coached by Kris Richard who was largely responsible for Seattle's Legion of Boom, and would be a true CB1 now and in the future. He is my absolute priority in FA, especially with Richard Sherman getting older and going into the last year of his contract, but would be my priority regardless. I love the talent at the top of the draft this year at CB, but I want to have the freedom to use my top pick on Staley's successor.
Devin McCourty, S: McCourty is just what this team needs. Yes he's old, but somehow, he's playing the best ball of his career. I don't know how much longer it's gonna last, but he can help us win now, and he can be another Sherman in the meanwhile, acting as a mentor for our guys; he plays the game at the highest level, and the right way.
Damier Byrd, WR: While never particularly productive at either the college or NFL level, Byrd, to my eye, flashed during the preseason for the Cardinals, and actually made the roster despite all of the offseason additions the team had made to that WR group. He is a tiny receiver, but athletically superior to most, and can really stretch the field with his elite speed (4.28 proday 40m). If we do lose Goodwin, we will want to make sure we have someone in his place. It will be an uphill battle for Byrd, but worth picking up to see if he can stick in our WR room.
Trades
2020 1st to the Miami Dolphins for both of their 2020 2nds: I will probably catch a lot of grief for this, but I expect us to be picking in the late teens at the earliest. There are some real top notch talents in this draft, but the true game changing blue chip prospects will likely be gone by our pick. Late day 1 and early day 2 picks are often similar in terms of talent and game day impact, and with us being out our 2nd round pick which we traded for Dee Ford, and Miami hungry for as many 1st round picks as they can get to turn their team around, I think, depending on how the board falls, this can be an advantageous move for both teams.
2021 5th and Soloman Thomas to the Cleveland Browns for their 2020 5th round pick and Genard Avery: I couldn't tell you why, but Genard Avery is at the back of their depth chart, and has been inactive on game days as a, as far as anyone knows, healthy scratch. At this stage, Thomas is a bench player, and one that makes a lot of money. Getting his money off the books, and getting a potentially productive backup on a 5th round rookie deal and some day 3 draft capital is a win for the 49ers. Do I wish that Solly could have netted us something more, or at least not need to throw in a 2021 pick? Yes, but I don't think, given what he has shown thus far in his career, it is a realistic expectation, despite him being the #3 overall pick just a few years ago. Avery can spell Dee Ford, come in to blitz, and serve as a backup LB. That kind of multipositional versatility is always beneficial to a team.
Draft
We will have picks in the following rounds: 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7
Round 2: Alex Leatherwood, OL (Alabama)
A lot of OL that you draft are big and strong, but lacking in agility, or agile, but lacking in anchor ability, or technically proficient, but lacking in length, etc. The benefit of taking a tackle in the top 40 of the draft, is you can get a great player with limited limitations. Typically, Leatherwood would be a day 1 pick, but based on the current climate of draft twitter, there seems to be enough true dancing bear types to push Leatherwood down to OT4 or 5. Lucky us. Listed as 6'6" and 310 pounds, he is not lacking for size. As a junior starting for Alabama, you know he's well coached, and there is no reason to believe that there are any concerns with length or strength limitations. What is apparent, however, is his abundant athleticism and movement skills, which is what we will need to replace Staley when he hangs them up. What makes the pick even better is that, until Staley does hang them up, Leatherwood started at guard last year, which means, if he wins the job, he can start there in the meantime. Majority of this board thinks the IOL needs upgrading, and while I agree that it can be upgraded, it hasn't proven to be as dire as I expected during the first quarter of the season. Worse comes to worst, we have the swing tackle/6th OL we've been struggling to find after Coleman went down in the preseason, and we don't have to worry about the left side of the line for the next ten years if all goes to plan. This is the ideal prospect to learn from, and eventually replace, the legend that is Joe Staley.
Round 2: Javon Kinlaw, DT (South Carolina)
I know the majority of this board will scoff at ANOTHER top pick spent on the interior DL, but we'd be foolish to think that this team won't continue investing big resource and draft capital along the DL. Consider also that my mock has us unfortunately letting Arik Armstead go, and I think Javon is a natural plug and play replacement. He was listed at the beginning of the year at 6'6" and 302 lbs, but he appears to have slimmed down a bit, and I wouldn't doubt if he's in the 290-295 range, which is right about where Armstead sits size wise. He is an explosive, high motor, long armed DLman with ability to play inside out to 5T. There are quite a few plays where you see him hustle half way across the field to make tackles out on the boundary, and I think he can quickly make our DL not miss a beat, despite losing two first rounders in the off season.
Round 3: Hamsah Nasirildeen, S (Florida State)
I'll admit that I knew next to nothing about Nasirildeen prior to this year, and I haven't had the opportunity to watch him much. Even last year, watching a ton of FSU games to check out Brian Burns, he never got on my radar. However, based on what I can read and find about the guy, he seems like a poor man's Derwin James as a prospect. I loved (wanted to draft) Derwin James, and even poor people have an opportunity to get rich. He can start as a dime backer or LB/SS hybrid, and learn from McCourty. McCourty won't stay long, and so Hamsah would be expected to take over.
Round 4: Cesar Ruiz, C (Michigan)
Somewhere, Wu probably has a poster of Cesar hung up in his room. At risk of sounding like a Michigan fanatic myself, Cesar Ruiz compares favorably to a poor man's Travis Frederick. He is a stout, well-built young man, who can absolutely dominate up front. Don't think that he is all brawn, however, because he has sweet feet, and is a smart player. We ride with Richburg for another year, who is now living up to his contract, and his reputation, now that he is healthy, and we let the OL continue to gel as currently assembled. Fans can rest easy, however, that we already got Staley's eventual successor, and now we have our center of the future waiting in the wings as well. In addition, this move will create cap flexibility in the immediate future years.
Round 5: Levonta Taylor, CB (Florida State)
I think K'Waun Williams is a fine player, and has definitely been good to us. However, with a fully healthy squad, he has definitely proven to be the weakest link in the secondary thus far in the season. He carries a 3.2 million cap hit next season, and so I will give some draft picks every opportunity to win his job. Levonta Taylor, despite being a 5 star recruit and the number one rated CB in the country coming out of high school, has not been getting the hype that the top CB's in this deep class have. He needs some work, but he definitely has the feet, hips, and speed to excel in coverage from the slot. FSU played him at outside cornerback, and they have now been playing him at FS, which is a testament to his feisty demeanor and instinctive, high IQ level of play. He is small (generously listed at 5'10" and 190 lbs), but I think he compares very favorably to a healthy Jason Verrett, and while his versatility will be a roster building asset, I think the team can safely defend against his small stature by primarily using him as a nickel defender, covering the smaller shiftier receivers out of the slot.
Round 5: Myles Bryant, CB (Washington)
Another diminutive defensive back, while he will likely drop in the draft because of his size, Bryant has the ideal athleticism of a hallmark NB. Bryant is absolutely tiny at a listed 185 lbs, but UW actually employs him in the box or with safety responsibilities quite often, despite his lack of bulk. He has a chance to excel in a "robber" role, and in fact, his most common pro comparisons are Budda Baker and Tyrann Mathieu. UW has been pumping out a lot of talent in the secondary; Desmond Trufant, Marcus Peters, Kevin King, Budda Baker, Sidney Jones, Byron Murphy, Taylor Rapp. I don't follow UW (though it's a shame Joe Mathis never got healthy in time for a shot at the NFL, give him a call Lynch!), so I couldn't tell you if it was coaching or recruiting, but apparently UW knows how to put talented DBs into the NFL.
Round 6: Tipa Galea'I, EDGE (Utah State)
Tipa is an edge rusher in the Dee Ford mold. It just so happens that Dee Ford has chronic knee issues, and will need to be spelled if we want to keep him healthy, and we will need depth behind him if he can't stay healthy despite everyone's best efforts. Galea'I is undersized, and comes with some previous off-field baggage, but he is an ideal situational wide 9 pass rusher with the quicks and flexibility to create a little Dee Ford insurance. Does he make Ford expendable? Far from it, but we're better off with Tipa on the team than off of it.
Round 7: Devin Duvernay, WR (Texas)
We are getting late in the draft, which means anyone I put here is likely to be long gone, and anyone who is available, I've likely never heard of. However, Duvernay is still available at this point in the draft in TDN's mock draft simulator, and so he makes it into my mock for now. Anytime you have a high usage slot receiver who is built like Deebo Samuel and has a PR 100m in high school of 10.27 (Marquise Goodwin ran a 10.24), you take him. Not only is he an upgrade at his position, but he helps stretch the field in Goodwin's absence if he no longer is on the team, and will continue to be a deep threat after Goodwin's eventual departure, even if it is not this year. Our scheme needs speed, and our roster needs a possession WR. Duvernay fills both.
Round 7: Netane Muti, OG (Fresno)
No one is talking about Muti, but they will be. Also unlikely to be available here on draft day, he gets slotted here for now. He has a better chance, IMO, of being a starter by the start of his rookie season, than he does of being relegated to a practice squad.
UDFA: Nevelle Clark, CB (UCF)
Bonus round! Nevelle fits all of our established CB thresholds, and you can never have too many CB's to stash and develop. He needs some work and discipline, but he has the requisite size, athleticism, and ball skills to be worth taking on as a priority UDFA, and he is physically very impressive. Practice squad candidate.
Final Roster:
QB (2): Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens[
This is obvious and goes without saying.
OL (10): Joe Staley, Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg, Mike Person, Mike McGlinchey, Alex Leatherwood, Cesar Ruiz, Justin Skule, Ross Reynolds, Netane Muti
We finally can rest easy about having solid depth behind our starters with a good cast of developmental talent that we can be confident in their ability to take over in due time.
RB (3): Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson
We are just fine without the high profile additions of year's past, and have a very effective unit, both in terms of production, and finances.
FB (1): Kyle Juszczyk
TE (3): George Kittle, Ross Dwelley, Levine Toilolo
We likely look to TE in the middle rounds of the 2021 draft. Looking at you Pat Freiermuth!
WR (6): Deebo Samuel, Devin Duvernay, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, Richie James, Trent Taylor
Our starters are set, with Deebo, Devin, and Dante and Jalen Hurd in an OW capacity. I like the continued development of Richie. I don't know how to feel about Taylor, and I would definitely prefer to have Goodwin in that spot, especially with Duvernay on the roster.
DL (9): Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Sheldon Day, Javon Kinlaw, Dee Ford, Ronald Blair, DJ Jones, Tipa Galea'I, Kentavious Street
Our team's strength remains a strength. Street, Julian Taylor, and Galea'I fight for the last 2 spots.
LB (5): Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander, Dre Greenlaw, Azeez Al-Shaair, Genard Avery
CB (6): Richard Sherman, Byron Jones, Ahkello Witherspoon, Emmanuel Moseley, Levonta Taylor, Myles Bryant
S (4): Devin McCourty, Tarvarius Moore, Hamsah Nasirildeen, Marcell Harris
I really like Tartt, and it's hard to let him go, but it's a numbers game. If Hamsah and Devin are looking good, I'd be trying my best to get whatever I can for Tartt.
LS (1): Kyle Nelson
P (1): Mitch Wishnowski
K (1): Robbie Gould
We really need to find our next kicker after next year.
[ Edited by adrianlesnar on Oct 3, 2019 at 12:02 AM ]