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OnTheClock's Post-Combine Mock (3/6/20)

Projected Moves:
Trade 1st round pick for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
Trade 2nd round pick for a later 2nd and additional 3rd
Trade Marquise Goodwin for a 6th round pick.
Finish with draft captial of 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7


2. Jalen Reagor-WR-TCU, 5-11 205 4.37
How do you replace both Goodwin and James at the same time (and maybe even Pettis too)? Draft a guy like Reagor. While he has focus drops at times, too, he offers the STs ability and speed on the outside with much better 50/50 ball skills than either of the two previously mentioned players.

3. Julian Okwara-DE-Notre Dame, 6-4 252 4.50

Okwara fits like an absolute glove to the W9 scheme we employ on defense. Sensational speed off the edge. Sensational length (34 3/8 inch arms), and plenty of production to back up his ability. He is coming off a season-ending injury (broken fibula), but healthy, he could be a big-time asset. It's possible he may not even make it this far, but a run on WRs and a top-heavy OL class could have him fall right in our laps. If he's there, I have to imagine he'd receive strong consideration.

3. Antonio Gibson-RB/WR-Memphis, 6-1 228 4.39
Outside of Jeff Wilson, the team lacks a power back. Gibson brings that kind of size, but more than that, the speed to breakaway, and receiving ability to make him a multi-dimensional threat on offense, as well as in the KR/PR game. Shanahan would have an absolute field day finding ways to use him, Reagor, Deebo, and Jalen Hurd on the field at the same time.

4. Ben Bartch-OL-Saint Johns (MN), 6-6 309 5.13
Bartch is a prospect the 49ers met with, and we all know how heavily they draft among players they've spoken to in person. Bartch passed all tests with flying colors at the Senior Bowl, shutting down players at higher levels of competition than he played at, firmly answering the question about his ability to play to that level. Strong fit inside for the ZBS scheme we employ, and could play OT in a pinch, but lacks the length to be there full-time.

5. Alton Robinson-DE-Syracuse, 6-3 264 4.69
Robinson may not have the most ideal length, but it's not that shabby (32 3/8" arms) and he makes up for it with good hand usage and hustle to get after the quarterback. These things helped him notch double-digit sacks this season and he's a guy the 49ers met with at the Senior Bowl. He's not one of the more high profile defenders, but he's a middle round guy that I think could potentially slip to the top of the 5th. Another option could be Trevis Gipson of Tulsa who caught some attention as well from other teams needing a pass rusher.

5. Kamal Martin-LB-Minnesota, 6-3 240 4.68
Tell me if this sounds familiar: Team captain, instinctual player, good coverage linebacker. Martin has speed but he's definitely not one of those smaller guys out there, he can absolutely level people in the open field. On top of having elite length (34-inch arms), I think he has somewhat deceptive speed at times that gets QBs thinking they can fit the ball in on him and then it just doesn't happen. I think the tape shows a guy with above average play recognition ability, good athletic traits, solid block shedding ability, all with the aforementioned coverage ability. He had a minor knee injury that limited him to 8 games so the stat sheet isn't super eye-opening, but he still posted 2 INT, 2 FF, 2.5 TFL and a sack in that span. This is very, very similar to Greenlaw's 2018 numbers at Arkansas of 2 INT, 2 sacks, 1 FF, and 6.5 TFL in 10 games before we picked him in the 5th last year. Just saying...

6. Jared Mayden-S-Alabama, 6-0 201 4.45
Trivia time! Who led the 'Bama team in interceptions last year? No, it wasn't Diggs. And it wasn't McKinney. No, it wasn't Shyheim Carter either. That title goes to Jared Mayden, a guy who offers the versatility to play either safety spot and -- similarly to Quinnen Williams -- shined when he finally got a chance to play more. Teams might be hesitant to grade him high with only one season as a starter, but when you look at the potential on tape, the production (4 INT, 1 TFL, 59 tackles, 3 PBUs), and add in the versatility and physical traits, it's hard not to see the value a player like him could bring a team. I get the sense the 49ers will go into 2020 with Moore as the presumptive starter, but not without competition. Tartt is terrific when on the field, but frequently gets dinged. Finding an upgrade over Marcell Harris is key, and Mayden can be a guy who could be the primary backup to both spots in 2020.

6. John Penisini-NT-Utah, 6-1 318 5.16
Showcased he was more than just a plugger at the Shrine Bowl, displaying strong hand battling ability and quickness to penetrate gaps. Also above average length for an interior DL at 33". JP is similar to Jones in some ways in the fact that he's a big boy but has surprising athleticism. He figures to be a late round guy who should be available in this range.

7. Nevelle Clarke-CB-Central Florida, 6-1 190 4.56
I could see Clarke get pushed down a bit by the depth at so many positions in this class. Clarke shows strong instincts and an undeniable willingness to stick his nose into run support. I think he'd be a nice fit in our scheme and could see us giving him a look

7. Ben Ellefson-TE-North Dakota State, 6-3 250 4.78
Ellefson met with 49ers scouts at the Shrine Bowl and after reviewing his game film, I can see why. He's a perfect fit for what we do. He's already a polished blocker, but evolved into a playmaker as a receiver as a senior. He's not generated much buzz this off-season, as far as I can tell, and his level of competition pushes him down. He could still rise a bit leading up to the draft, but I have to believe he would be a prime target for the team here if available. Other guys who might be in consideration are Dominick Wood Anderson (Tennessee) and Armani Levias (Marshall).
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Mar 7, 2020 at 6:10 AM ]
How do you have a 2nd round pick if that was traded for a 3rd and 4th?

The rest of the picks seem ok but this scenario would have us starting with two picks in the 3rd round
Originally posted by CardinalGold:
How do you have a 2nd round pick if that was traded for a 3rd and 4th?

The rest of the picks seem ok but this scenario would have us starting with two picks in the 3rd round

Whoops, fixed the math. Must've been sleep-typing the first half of this. Thanks for the catch.
Would be stoked if this how the chips fell. Great mock.
Solid mock across the board. Covers all the needs on the offensive side of the ball and adds a bunch of additional pieces to the defense.

Quick question............you are projecting taking two DE/Edge players, a LB plus a NT. Who would they all be replacing at this point? I can see getting an edge rusher to supplant DeMontre Moore as a backup and a new LB to take over for Nzeocha at SS LB. Who else goes from the current roster to accommodate your picks?
I'd be pretty happy with that haul just think your trades are unrealistic in terms of what we get back.
Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Solid mock across the board. Covers all the needs on the offensive side of the ball and adds a bunch of additional pieces to the defense.

Quick question............you are projecting taking two DE/Edge players, a LB plus a NT. Who would they all be replacing at this point? I can see getting an edge rusher to supplant DeMontre Moore as a backup and a new LB to take over for Nzeocha at SS LB. Who else goes from the current roster to accommodate your picks?

Thought process there is, even if Blair is brought back, there's no guarantee he'd even be ready for TC or pre-season. We need all the competition we can get and insurance for Ford. You may be right that this is a little bit over kill. Still a bit early in the mocking season, so much is still yet to change. I just feel like we may look to really restock depth.

Lee, Al Shaiir, and Nzeocha definitely could be replaced at LB.
I don't know much about the actual players you picked (I don't follow college FB that closely and am not a draftnik) but going off position and our needs, I would prefer a CB in earlier rounds.

I like your descriptions and logic in this. I like the two DEs based purely on value and difference pass rush makes. Not sure why teams don't take a DE every draft.

Thanks for posting it!
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Projected Moves:
Trade 1st round pick for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
Trade 2nd round pick for a later 2nd and additional 3rd
Trade Marquise Goodwin for a 6th round pick.
Finish with draft captial of 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7


2. Jalen Reagor-WR-TCU, 5-11 205 4.37
How do you replace both Goodwin and James at the same time (and maybe even Pettis too)? Draft a guy like Reagor. While he has focus drops at times, too, he offers the STs ability and speed on the outside with much better 50/50 ball skills than either of the two previously mentioned players.

3. Julian Okwara-DE-Notre Dame, 6-4 252 4.50

Okwara fits like an absolute glove to the W9 scheme we employ on defense. Sensational speed off the edge. Sensational length (34 3/8 inch arms), and plenty of production to back up his ability. He is coming off a season-ending injury (broken fibula), but healthy, he could be a big-time asset. It's possible he may not even make it this far, but a run on WRs and a top-heavy OL class could have him fall right in our laps. If he's there, I have to imagine he'd receive strong consideration.

3. Antonio Gibson-RB/WR-Memphis, 6-1 228 4.39
Outside of Jeff Wilson, the team lacks a power back. Gibson brings that kind of size, but more than that, the speed to breakaway, and receiving ability to make him a multi-dimensional threat on offense, as well as in the KR/PR game. Shanahan would have an absolute field day finding ways to use him, Reagor, Deebo, and Jalen Hurd on the field at the same time.

4. Ben Bartch-OL-Saint Johns (MN), 6-6 309 5.13
Bartch is a prospect the 49ers met with, and we all know how heavily they draft among players they've spoken to in person. Bartch passed all tests with flying colors at the Senior Bowl, shutting down players at higher levels of competition than he played at, firmly answering the question about his ability to play to that level. Strong fit inside for the ZBS scheme we employ, and could play OT in a pinch, but lacks the length to be there full-time.

5. Alton Robinson-DE-Syracuse, 6-3 264 4.69
Robinson may not have the most ideal length, but it's not that shabby (32 3/8" arms) and he makes up for it with good hand usage and hustle to get after the quarterback. These things helped him notch double-digit sacks this season and he's a guy the 49ers met with at the Senior Bowl. He's not one of the more high profile defenders, but he's a middle round guy that I think could potentially slip to the top of the 5th. Another option could be Trevis Gipson of Tulsa who caught some attention as well from other teams needing a pass rusher.

5. Kamal Martin-LB-Minnesota, 6-3 240 4.68
Tell me if this sounds familiar: Team captain, instinctual player, good coverage linebacker. Martin has speed but he's definitely not one of those smaller guys out there, he can absolutely level people in the open field. On top of having elite length (34-inch arms), I think he has somewhat deceptive speed at times that gets QBs thinking they can fit the ball in on him and then it just doesn't happen. I think the tape shows a guy with above average play recognition ability, good athletic traits, solid block shedding ability, all with the aforementioned coverage ability. He had a minor knee injury that limited him to 8 games so the stat sheet isn't super eye-opening, but he still posted 2 INT, 2 FF, 2.5 TFL and a sack in that span. This is very, very similar to Greenlaw's 2018 numbers at Arkansas of 2 INT, 2 sacks, 1 FF, and 6.5 TFL in 10 games before we picked him in the 5th last year. Just saying...

6. Jared Mayden-S-Alabama, 6-0 201 4.45
Trivia time! Who led the 'Bama team in interceptions last year? No, it wasn't Diggs. And it wasn't McKinney. No, it wasn't Shyheim Carter either. That title goes to Jared Mayden, a guy who offers the versatility to play either safety spot and -- similarly to Quinnen Williams -- shined when he finally got a chance to play more. Teams might be hesitant to grade him high with only one season as a starter, but when you look at the potential on tape, the production (4 INT, 1 TFL, 59 tackles, 3 PBUs), and add in the versatility and physical traits, it's hard not to see the value a player like him could bring a team. I get the sense the 49ers will go into 2020 with Moore as the presumptive starter, but not without competition. Tartt is terrific when on the field, but frequently gets dinged. Finding an upgrade over Marcell Harris is key, and Mayden can be a guy who could be the primary backup to both spots in 2020.

6. John Penisini-NT-Utah, 6-1 318 5.16
Showcased he was more than just a plugger at the Shrine Bowl, displaying strong hand battling ability and quickness to penetrate gaps. Also above average length for an interior DL at 33". JP is similar to Jones in some ways in the fact that he's a big boy but has surprising athleticism. He figures to be a late round guy who should be available in this range.

7. Nevelle Clarke-CB-Central Florida, 6-1 190 4.56
I could see Clarke get pushed down a bit by the depth at so many positions in this class. Clarke shows strong instincts and an undeniable willingness to stick his nose into run support. I think he'd be a nice fit in our scheme and could see us giving him a look

7. Ben Ellefson-TE-North Dakota State, 6-3 250 4.78
Ellefson met with 49ers scouts at the Shrine Bowl and after reviewing his game film, I can see why. He's a perfect fit for what we do. He's already a polished blocker, but evolved into a playmaker as a receiver as a senior. He's not generated much buzz this off-season, as far as I can tell, and his level of competition pushes him down. He could still rise a bit leading up to the draft, but I have to believe he would be a prime target for the team here if available. Other guys who might be in consideration are Dominick Wood Anderson (Tennessee) and Armani Levias (Marshall).

Why are you drafting 3 Defensive Lineman when that is the strength of the 49ers Roster?
Originally posted by Orlando49erfan:
Why are you drafting 3 Defensive Lineman when that is the strength of the 49ers Roster?

I can only assume because he doesn't expect it to remain the strength of the roster without restocking and retooling.

Dee Ford: expensive and injury prone
Arik Armstead: one year of production, expensive, and a free agent
Ronald Blair: coming off major injury and a free agent
Julian Taylor: coming off major injury
Damontre Moore: coming off injury
Kentavious Street: coming off injury.
DJ Jones: coming off injury
Sheldon Day: Free agent
Soloman Thomas: ineffective and soon to be gone.

That leaves Buckner and Bosa...

Absolutely the DL needs some work if we want to continue having a dominant defense
[ Edited by adrianlesnar on Mar 11, 2020 at 7:46 PM ]
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Nice one, OTC
Originally posted by adrianlesnar:
Originally posted by Orlando49erfan:
Why are you drafting 3 Defensive Lineman when that is the strength of the 49ers Roster?

I can only assume because he doesn't expect it to remain the strength of the roster without restocking and retooling.

Dee Ford: expensive and injury prone
Arik Armstead: one year of production, expensive, and a free agent
Ronald Blair: coming off major injury and a free agent
Julian Taylor: coming off major injury
Damontre Moore: coming off injury
Kentavious Street: coming off injury.
DJ Jones: coming off injury
Sheldon Day: Free agent
Soloman Thomas: ineffective and soon to be gone.

That leaves Buckner and Bosa...

Absolutely the DL needs some work if we want to continue having a dominant defense

Exactly. Way too many players coming off serious season-ending injuries and/or dealing with chronic stuff.

Day - Average and as mentioned, a UFA.
Moore - Serviceable but upgradeable.
Thomas - Serviceable but overpaid.
Blair - Good rational guy but coming off an ACL and has dealt with injuries frequently while here.
Street - Unproven and didn't exactly flash much of anything.
Taylor - Has constantly been injured going all the way back to his college days. Coming off a late season ACL tear.
Jones - Coming off a late season high ankle injury and has been dinged up the past couple of years.
Armstead - Was great and healthy last year, but had a long injury history before that.
Ford - Chronic knee issues.

I would be surprised if Street/Taylor are on the active roster. Thinking PS for one or both. Day will walk for a late comp pick. Moore will be in TC and could be a fringe roster guy. Blair may be brought back, but could start the season on the PUP. Thomas is gone after this year or maybe even sooner, so I see them looking for his replacement. Could be a big reason they're looking at Davidson and Blacklock.

Depth chart with currently signed players:
DE: Bosa, Ford, Armstead, Thomas
3T: Buckner, Thomas
NT: Jones, Street, Taylor

With that group, we could use 1 IDL, 1 DE/DT versatile player, and 1 Pure Edge.
Reagor & Gibson yes please

I'd much rather go CB in the 3rd. I honestly don't know enough of Bartch to have a real opinion of him outside of the SB. Not a fan of Mayden and I love all the extra capital BUT I'd prefer if they used some of it to move back up and get some better quality prospects. I don't think they need to draft 10 guys.

thanks!
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Reagor & Gibson yes please

I'd much rather go CB in the 3rd. I honestly don't know enough of Bartch to have a real opinion of him outside of the SB. Not a fan of Mayden and I love all the extra capital BUT I'd prefer if they used some of it to move back up and get some better quality prospects. I don't think they need to draft 10 guys.

thanks!

Sure, all fair statements. Still over a month to go, these mocks will definitely be evolving. At the beginning of my research, I start with historical data and work off of that to try to project things. After more research over the past week, I think you're right that they would most likely not trade down quite as much. I've already started formulating the next mock based on what I think we aim to do.

It's fun to mock out all the guys the fans love as players, but that's fantasy and not reality (this isn't directed at you, FYI, just making a general statement on my methodology). I think as we start to zero in on all the aspects of what affects the 49ers' board, we can get a better picture. We've now had three drafts to reference to see how we operate. Definitely helps give a better feel.

Heck, I feel better about what I think they'll do now than I did a week ago. Next mock will reflect those predictions. We tend to do a thing or two that fans don't expect. Gotta account for that!
[ Edited by OnTheClock on Mar 12, 2020 at 9:41 AM ]
Originally posted by OnTheClock:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Reagor & Gibson yes please

I'd much rather go CB in the 3rd. I honestly don't know enough of Bartch to have a real opinion of him outside of the SB. Not a fan of Mayden and I love all the extra capital BUT I'd prefer if they used some of it to move back up and get some better quality prospects. I don't think they need to draft 10 guys.

thanks!

Sure, all fair statements. Still over a month to go, these mocks will definitely be evolving. At the beginning of my research, I start with historical data and work off of that to try to project things. After more research over the past week, I think you're right that they would most likely not trade down quite as much. I've already started formulating the next mock based on what I think we aim to do.

It's fun to mock out all the guys the fans love as players, but that's fantasy and not reality (this isn't directed at you, FYI, just making a general statement on my methodology). I think as we start to zero in on all the aspects of what affects the 49ers' board, we can get a better picture. We've now had three drafts to reference to see how we operate. Definitely helps give a better feel.

Heck, I feel better about what I think they'll do now than I did a week ago. Next mock will reflect those predictions. We tend to do a thing or two that fans don't expect. Gotta account for that!

no doubt. end of the day mocks are fun. just critiquing it a little
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