CJs Mock Off-Season - The Quest for the Franchise QB

Hi Everyone,
I have been toying around with a mock off-season that I think could really setup the 49ers for success, both next year but also without mortgaging the future.
I would really like to hear what some of you guys can provide as feedback. The first part of my mock is basically the reasoning and strategy behind my approach and the second part goes into specifics and then lastly I tried out my strategy in PFF mock draft simulator

So without further a do, here goes:

1. f It was me running the team I would see this off-season as a unique opportunity that will probably not come around again. We have a rare situation where the Cap is going down, meaning several teams will need to make a lot of tough decisions regarding their existing roster and let some quality players go as Cap Casualties (we are already seeing the beginning of this with Buoye and Watt, but I believe this is just the tip of the iceberg).

Therefore my main idea is that we try to sign as few FAs as possible until later in the off-season in order to have as much flexibility when free agency gets flooded with Cap Cassualties after June 1st. Although I do have a couple of priority signings that I think we should get out of the way early. I think we should sign Verrett and Moseley right away.
The reason being we need as much continuity in our CB group as possible since Sherman, Odon and Saleh will all have left. In terms of clearing Cap Space, I think we should do the obvious cuts in Richburg and Ford.
Furthermore I will let Jimmy go if possible via trade or simply just cut him if it gets to that. The reason for cutting Jimmy is not that I don't like him, it is only that it is too risky to spend around 15% of your Cap on a player with his Injury history. Also at this point I think the relationship between him and Shanahan is irreperable and no good for the locker room with all the rumors flying around all the time, no good will come of it in my opinion. We simply need a Coach + QB combination with positive energy where they are feeding of eachothers ideas and feedback.
Next up Trent Williams, I absolutely see his value as an Elite tackle and the main goal of my Off-Season is to solidfy the OLine, BUT I think this means that we need to let him go. In my opinion increasing the general quality across the line should outweigh having an Injury prone Elite left tackle (Since 2010 he has played 16 games in only 2 seasons). (I know that this is counter intuitive as I wanted to re-sign Verrett as a top priority, but Verrett will be cheaper and therefore less risky to re-sign).
Imagine having Williams, Jimmy G, Ward, Verrett and Kittle making up 50% of our Cap next year. How many of these guys will be available for 16 games? Therefore my Idea is to spread the risk. use the 50 mil saved by trading Jimmy and not re-signing Trent to get 4,5 maybe 6 quality players in Free Agency. So the plan for Free Agency is to go for BPA in positions of need OT, C, CB and QB. As you can see I am not really priortizing QB that high, which leads to the next part of my Plan. THE DRAFT.

2. So here the idea is very conservative, no trade up, no big trade for Watson, no first round pick. Si the idea is to trade down as many times as possible in the 1st round to accumulate several picks in the 2-4th rounds. Finally when we are sitting with a late first round pick, trade this pick to the Texans along with our 1st pick in 2022 and get their 3rd this year and 1st and 2nd/3rd (depending on whats possible) in 2022. The reason being that there will likely be two scenarios for the Texans. I don't think they will trade Watson before the draft, therefore they will want to get back into the 1st round in order to give Watson something that could change his mind about leaving.
So either they keep Watson but he will hate it and they will be s**t, or they will trade Watson and get multiple picks for future years but be even worse next year. Meaning they are either bad or a complete disaster. The conclusion is, if we trade for their 2022 1st we will at least get a top 5 pick.

With all our accumulated picks in the 2-5th round we get young developmental guys that ideally sits behind a vet starter this year before some of them become starters over the coming years. Here my priorities are:

OL: get at least 1 tackle and 1 Center: Tackles - Walker Little (5 star recruit who got injured in 19 and opted out in 20, high risk high reward if he had played he would probably be going in the 1st), Dillon Radunz (Small School player who performed excellent in the Senior Bowl). Center - Landon Dickerson, Creed Humphrey and Quinn Meinerz (I am leaning towards this guy, he was great at the senior bowl and can also play Guard, and will probably fall lower than the other two)
CB: Get 1 early round physical boundary CB, get 1 nickle in mid rounds and get a couple more physical CBs in the late rounds: Early CBs Tyson Campbell, Melifonwu, Aaron Robinson etc Nickle Sean Wade or Thomas Graham. Late rounds Mukuamu, Keith Taylor, Cam Bynum etc.
EDGE: 1 early speed rusher 1 other edge later - whoever falls to us out of Ojulari, Ossai, Oweh, Basham etc. Later prospects Cam Sample, Hayes, Weaver or Roche
QB: 1 out of Trask, Mond or Mills taken in round 3 or later Extra luxury picks (prioritized):
Gadget weapon - Demetric Felton (This guy could be really fun to see with Shanahan)
TE - Tommy Tremble will be going in 3-5 round I expect
WR - Nico Collins (Tall strong fast Receiver for the deep ball we will finally be throwing), in later rounds Frank Darby (has a connection with Aiyuk)
S - Grant or Paris Ford DT - Osa Odighisua

So we would need the following picks: 3 2nd round picks for: OT, CB and EDGE 3-4 3rd rounders for: C, QB, Nickle and 1 luxury pick 3-4 4th rounders for: Back-up EDGE and CB plus luxury picks Fill rest of the needs with 5th to 7th rounders.

This should give us flexibility to go to free agency with most of our needs being covered and no glaring holes. Now we can go pick up quality players where possible so we don't HAVE to play too many of the drafted rookies right away. Through FA we get a stacked (but balanced) roster which should be able to carry any of our QBs to the playoffs in a weak NFC. If Kyle doesn't like what he sees from Rosen or the rookie in mini camp, we go get Fitzmagic or someone like that to be the bridge.
Next years draft we get our Franchise QB unless Rosen has a breakout season. Hopefully you made it all the way through.

3. I tried the above draft approach in PFFs draft simulator, and the result was probably a bit too good to be true, but even if we would get a slightly worse result I think this would be a solid approach. This is what I got:

1. Trade 12, 156, 298 to dolphins and receive - 18, 50 and 81
2. trade 18, 238 to Bears and get 20, 52, 83
3. trade 20, 182 to Jaguars and get 25,33 and 65
4. trade 25, R1 2022 and 196 to get Hst R1 & R3 2022 and 67
5. trade 33 to Eagles and get 37 and 70
Pick 37 - Walker Little
Pick 43 - Carlos Basham
Pick 50 - Tyson Campbell
6. trade 52 to Seahawks and get 56 and R2 2022
7. trade 56 to Ravens and get R1 2022 and 58 (This seems really unrealistic, but I take what the simulator gave me)
Pick 58 - Joseph Ossai
8. trade 65 and 173 to Lions for 72 and 88
Pick 67 - Creed Humphrey
Pick 70 - Najee Harris (absolutely a luxury pick and completely unnecessary, but he was sitting there so I just took him for the fun of it)
9. trade 72 to the Colts and get R2 2022 and 84
Pick 81 - Kellen Mond
Pick 83 - Demetric Felton
Pick 84 - Osa Odighizuwa
Pick 88 - Eric Stokes
Pick 102 - Shaun Wade
Pick 117 - Nico Collins

I think this haul is unrealistic, but the principle stands if we trade down and accumulate picks in the mid rounds, then it is so much easier to navigate the draft and not miss out on our targeted players.
I would really like to get your input. The main issue that I see is that Lynch and Shanahan have put themselves in a situation where the fans will kill them for waiting another year before we get our franchise QB.

Let me know what you think.

Wow that's a bunch of trades

I love the amount of work you put in to this but all those trades are pretty hard to keep track of. Maybe I'm reading incorrectly but you want us to go in to next season with Rosen and Mond/Trask as our QB's? That would be an absolute disaster and a wasted year.

Originally posted by Kalen49ers:
I love the amount of work you put in to this but all those trades are pretty hard to keep track of. Maybe I'm reading incorrectly but you want us to go in to next season with Rosen and Mond/Trask as our QB's? That would be an absolute disaster and a wasted year.

have to 2nd this. Seems like you did a lot of work to pretty much screw up a playoff team. Rosen and Mond? Will have us longing for Jimmy G.

Originally posted by rivercity:
have to 2nd this. Seems like you did a lot of work to pretty much screw up a playoff team. Rosen and Mond? Will have us longing for Jimmy G.

Okay, thanks for the feedback. Although there is a pretty high risk that keeping Jimmy would end in the same result, as he will eventually get hurt again and we will start a qb (Rosen or Mond) that was not prepped to be a starter.
So please give me your input, what would you do? Would you reslly rather spend 50 mil on Jimmy and T Williams and have 0 backup plan (no upgrades in FA), or would you spread out the risk, get a decent bridge QB (Fitz, Dalton, Mariota) that would cost a third of Jimmy and then get stacked at other positions through FA.

We were literally a couple of games from the playoffs this year with half of our roster on IR. We should be able to find an upgrade over Mullens that can take a stacked roster to the playoffs.

Creative on getting filling out holes in the roster, but that might be a bottom 5 team for the next several years.

Originally posted by Cjsloth:

Originally posted by rivercity:
have to 2nd this. Seems like you did a lot of work to pretty much screw up a playoff team. Rosen and Mond? Will have us longing for Jimmy G.

Okay, thanks for the feedback. Although there is a pretty high risk that keeping Jimmy would end in the same result, as he will eventually get hurt again and we will start a qb (Rosen or Mond) that was not prepped to be a starter.
So please give me your input, what would you do? Would you reslly rather spend 50 mil on Jimmy and T Williams and have 0 backup plan (no upgrades in FA), or would you spread out the risk, get a decent bridge QB (Fitz, Dalton, Mariota) that would cost a third of Jimmy and then get stacked at other positions through FA.

We were literally a couple of games from the playoffs this year with half of our roster on IR. We should be able to find an upgrade over Mullens that can take a stacked roster to the playoffs.

I'll have to defer to AB, the master, on cap stuff. Here was one of his recent comments (cap est. $180m): "we'll keep Trent & Juice, I also think we have a good shot at keeping Hyder & Verrett. I can see K'Waun heading to the Jets, he's a NJ guy. I see us losing Sherman, Tartt, McKinnon, possibly Witherspoon, Jones, & Thomas. I'm unsure what they'll do with Tevin Coleman, I wouldn't bring him back, but Kyle loves him. Also I can see Bourne leaving, and Trent Taylor.
We'll definitely keep Moseley, Brunskill, Harris, Dwelley, and extend Warner. I can also see extensions for Laken Tomlinson, & Tarvarius Moore."

So, presuming we release Ford and Richburg, we'll need Interior OL x2; 1 safety; 2 CBs. Probably need to draft Edge, IOL, CB, backup RB, QB.
We've got the picks, and Lynch has been great at mid- and later rounds.

I think Jimmy G is a guy who could win a super bowl or at worst be a bridge to QB of the future. My dream would be to get Trey Lance at 12, or maybe trade up with Lions to get him. Failing that, maybe go for Mills in the 3rd, and see if Rosen develops. Just the thought of relying on Rosen gives me heartburn. I don't believe in Mond, either (live in TX). I didn't mean to be dismissive of your good efforts, just want a more solid plan at QB. Fans live on hope.

Too many trades and would be prohibitively expensive to carry so many early round contracts against the cap. Pare it back a little. Some good prospects buried under all that fluff.

Brah

I'm at a loss of words

I love the work, and I love the accumulation of picks, but yeah, like others have said, this is something you'd do on a rebuilding team. For the Lions this would be a home run.

We remain a team that with above average QB & line play will contend for a Superbowl.

Thanks everyone for the constructive feedback, much appreciated. My conclusion from the input is that this approach would simply be too excessive.

Seems that most of you feel safer with the known commodities in Trent and Jimmy, thats completely okay.
So if we dial down the trades a bit and go for locking down our own top priority FAs (Verrett, Williams, Hyder etc.). What do you then think about the plan of trading for the Texans 1st next year? I really see it as a golden opportunity to get a top pick in the draft next year.

Originally posted by Cjsloth:
Thanks everyone for the constructive feedback, much appreciated. My conclusion from the input is that this approach would simply be too excessive.

Seems that most of you feel safer with the known commodities in Trent and Jimmy, thats completely okay.
So if we dial down the trades a bit and go for locking down our own top priority FAs (Verrett, Williams, Hyder etc.). What do you then think about the plan of trading for the Texans 1st next year? I really see it as a golden opportunity to get a top pick in the draft next year.

I think most actually want rid of Jimmy, you just need to replace him with someone better.

Regarding the trade it I don't think they do it unless it's for a QB, and in that case they'd have moved Deshaun and have a better pick to do that.

Would be great for us though, they're going to be a dumpster fire.

If I were those other teams, I wouldn't make any of those trades. Why would the Bears give up a 2nd round pick to move up 2 spots?

For trades in those ranges you might net a 3rd round pick, probably more realistically a 4th. This is what the draft value chart is for

1. Trade 12, 156, 298 to dolphins and receive - 18, 50 and 81
12 (1,200) + 156 (29) + 298(1) = 1,230
18 (900) + 50 (400) + 81 (185) = 1,485

2. trade 18, 238 to Bears and get 20, 52, 83
18 (900) + 238 (1) = 901
20 (850) + 52 (380) + 83 (175) = 1,405

3. trade 20, 182 to Jaguars and get 25,33 and 65
20 (850) + 182 (18.2) = 868.2
25 (720) + 33 (580) + 65 (265) = 1,565

4. trade 25, R1 2022 and 196 to get Hst R1 & R3 2022 and 67
No way to value this trade, but it seems likely Houston understands they will not be good next year and won't be interested in moving their first round pick.

5. trade 33 to Eagles and get 37 and 70
33 (580) = 580
37 (530) + 70 (240) = 770

Sometimes teams will overpay to move up if somebody they really want is there, but that might happen once a year across the entire draft. All of those teams aren't going to fall in love with players and just have to give up a haul to get them.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
I think most actually want rid of Jimmy, you just need to replace him with someone better.

Regarding the trade it I don't think they do it unless it's for a QB, and in that case they'd have moved Deshaun and have a better pick to do that.

Would be great for us though, they're going to be a dumpster fire.

Agreed, the ideal scenario would be to get a clear upgeade over Jimmy, but that upgrade (Watson) is gonna be really expensive and would significantly worsen the rest of the team both now and in future seasons. With this approach we get to keep Warner, Bosa, Kittle etc and have a shot at drafting our own Franchise QB next year. I don't beleive that Trey Lance will be THAT guy for us.
With our roster and if Shanahan is as great as we all think he is, he should be able to get us to the playoffs next year with a guy like Fitzpatrick or someone of that caliber.

Regarding wheter Houston would do it. I think they will be pretty desperate to do something in this years draft to please the players and the fans otherwise they will have lost JJ, have a QB that doesnt want to play (or lost him) and have 0 1st or 2nd rnd picks.

Originally posted by boomer49er:
If I were those other teams, I wouldn't make any of those trades. Why would the Bears give up a 2nd round pick to move up 2 spots?

For trades in those ranges you might net a 3rd round pick, probably more realistically a 4th. This is what the draft value chart is for

1. Trade 12, 156, 298 to dolphins and receive - 18, 50 and 81
12 (1,200) + 156 (29) + 298(1) = 1,230
18 (900) + 50 (400) + 81 (185) = 1,485

2. trade 18, 238 to Bears and get 20, 52, 83
18 (900) + 238 (1) = 901
20 (850) + 52 (380) + 83 (175) = 1,405

3. trade 20, 182 to Jaguars and get 25,33 and 65
20 (850) + 182 (18.2) = 868.2
25 (720) + 33 (580) + 65 (265) = 1,565

4. trade 25, R1 2022 and 196 to get Hst R1 & R3 2022 and 67
No way to value this trade, but it seems likely Houston understands they will not be good next year and won't be interested in moving their first round pick.

5. trade 33 to Eagles and get 37 and 70
33 (580) = 580
37 (530) + 70 (240) = 770

Sometimes teams will overpay to move up if somebody they really want is there, but that might happen once a year across the entire draft. All of those teams aren't going to fall in love with players and just have to give up a haul to get them.

You're probably right that some of these trades are unrealisric, but like I wrote initially I just wanted to test my approach in a simulator and took whatever I was offered. I guess I shouldnt have shared my simulated draft it seems to take too much focus away from my original idea, which was:

1. Trade down a couple times to cover basic needs in the draft
2. Trade for Hsts 1st next year in order to get a shot at a franchise QB
3. Capitalize on the unique Free Agency this year to get a really good roster that could carry a bridge QB to the playoffs.

Any input on this? Or what is your ideal approach to the off-season?