CJs Mock Off-Season - The Quest for the Franchise QB

Originally posted by miked1978:
Brah

I'm at a loss of words

In a good or bad way?

Originally posted by Cjsloth:
You're probably right that some of these trades are unrealisric, but like I wrote initially I just wanted to test my approach in a simulator and took whatever I was offered. I guess I shouldnt have shared my simulated draft it seems to take too much focus away from my original idea, which was:

1. Trade down a couple times to cover basic needs in the draft
2. Trade for Hsts 1st next year in order to get a shot at a franchise QB
3. Capitalize on the unique Free Agency this year to get a really good roster that could carry a bridge QB to the playoffs.

Any input on this? Or what is your ideal approach to the off-season?

I like the theory behind it, that area of the draft has a ton of talent as well. The problem is that you have to let go of Jimmy first for the cap space, and then you're creating a void at QB. Fitz would take a chunk of that as will any QB worth getting and then you aren't helping your team enough.

The big problem with the Texans trade is that they can't do it with Deshaun on the team, and will have significant assets if they do move him. The only slight possibility would be if they keep him until after the draft after a holdout, but then they wouldn't need this year's draft capital.

The only way that I see us getting any future 1st rounder is for a team trading up for a QB, but it begs the question why we wouldn't just take him ourselves.

I just don't think the team is in this life cycle, we're much more likely to just pull the trigger this year or next and send a boatload of future picks for our QB if we don't believe in Jimmy.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
I like the theory behind it, that area of the draft has a ton of talent as well. The problem is that you have to let go of Jimmy first for the cap space, and then you're creating a void at QB. Fitz would take a chunk of that as will any QB worth getting and then you aren't helping your team enough.

The big problem with the Texans trade is that they can't do it with Deshaun on the team, and will have significant assets if they do move him. The only slight possibility would be if they keep him until after the draft after a holdout, but then they wouldn't need this year's draft capital.

The only way that I see us getting any future 1st rounder is for a team trading up for a QB, but it begs the question why we wouldn't just take him ourselves.

I just don't think the team is in this life cycle, we're much more likely to just pull the trigger this year or next and send a boatload of future picks for our QB if we don't believe in Jimmy.

Thanks for the constructive feedback
Regarding Jimmy G -> Fitz, releasing Jimmy pre June 1st would net us roughly 25 mil in cap space, I suspect we could get a guy like Fitz for around 5 mil that was what he got on Miami last year, and I actually think the price will go down as there will several options in Free Agency. So freeing up 20 mil cap space would go a long way on the IOL and DBs. Instead of signing T Williams (who has played 16 games in only 2 of his seasons since 2010) we could get a guy like Vilavueva (Has never missed a start) + a quality Center and probably even a Right Guard.

Don't know whether the Texans wants to trade no matter what in order to get into the 1st round this year. Either they are in a situation where they have lost their all-time best defensive player and leader (Watt) and have a franchise QB that either doesn't want to play for them or has been traded away. In both cases I think the Texans are pretty desperate to please their owners and fanbase by giving them something to be hopeful about (Whether that is top Edge or maybe an offensive weapon for Watson or a future QB). Remember the trade is still that they receive 2 1st rounders and we receive 1 1st rounder (maybe that is enough to sell it as a good deal).

Lastly you might be correct that this is just too much waiting for an impatient 49ers fanbase, they want the QB position solved now, but I think solving it now will comes with a lot of risk and a very short window to win. If we get Watson who will then need to leave, initially just to trade for him and next year in order to pay his salaries?

In 2022 we could be in a situation (if we get Watson) where we have: Watson (40 mil), T Williams (20+ mil), Armstead (20 mil), Warner (16+ mil), Kittle (16 mil), Ward (11 mil), Bosa (11 mil). So 7 players will take up 134 mil (this is of course in the scenario that we don't trade any of the above) and this is without a Center, No Right Tackle, no CBs, no Deebo or Edge opposite Bosa. Plus Bosa will need to get paid in the future seasons. And the kicker we will have 0 1st or 2nd rnd picks in 2022 or 2023.

In my scenario we could keep everyone and then have the 40 mil from Watson to pay a top 1st rnd QB and cover some of the other positions through FA and then still have 1st and 2nd round picks in 2022 and 2023.
If we go for Watson, then we have 1 year to win (this year, first year in new system) after that we would need to re-tool the roster in order to be under the cap, and do that without any top draft picks.

Originally posted by Cjsloth:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
I like the theory behind it, that area of the draft has a ton of talent as well. The problem is that you have to let go of Jimmy first for the cap space, and then you're creating a void at QB. Fitz would take a chunk of that as will any QB worth getting and then you aren't helping your team enough.

The big problem with the Texans trade is that they can't do it with Deshaun on the team, and will have significant assets if they do move him. The only slight possibility would be if they keep him until after the draft after a holdout, but then they wouldn't need this year's draft capital.

The only way that I see us getting any future 1st rounder is for a team trading up for a QB, but it begs the question why we wouldn't just take him ourselves.

I just don't think the team is in this life cycle, we're much more likely to just pull the trigger this year or next and send a boatload of future picks for our QB if we don't believe in Jimmy.

Thanks for the constructive feedback
Regarding Jimmy G -> Fitz, releasing Jimmy pre June 1st would net us roughly 25 mil in cap space, I suspect we could get a guy like Fitz for around 5 mil that was what he got on Miami last year, and I actually think the price will go down as there will several options in Free Agency. So freeing up 20 mil cap space would go a long way on the IOL and DBs. Instead of signing T Williams (who has played 16 games in only 2 of his seasons since 2010) we could get a guy like Vilavueva (Has never missed a start) + a quality Center and probably even a Right Guard.

Don't know whether the Texans wants to trade no matter what in order to get into the 1st round this year. Either they are in a situation where they have lost their all-time best defensive player and leader (Watt) and have a franchise QB that either doesn't want to play for them or has been traded away. In both cases I think the Texans are pretty desperate to please their owners and fanbase by giving them something to be hopeful about (Whether that is top Edge or maybe an offensive weapon for Watson or a future QB). Remember the trade is still that they receive 2 1st rounders and we receive 1 1st rounder (maybe that is enough to sell it as a good deal).

Lastly you might be correct that this is just too much waiting for an impatient 49ers fanbase, they want the QB position solved now, but I think solving it now will comes with a lot of risk and a very short window to win. If we get Watson who will then need to leave, initially just to trade for him and next year in order to pay his salaries?

In 2022 we could be in a situation (if we get Watson) where we have: Watson (40 mil), T Williams (20+ mil), Armstead (20 mil), Warner (16+ mil), Kittle (16 mil), Ward (11 mil), Bosa (11 mil). So 7 players will take up 134 mil (this is of course in the scenario that we don't trade any of the above) and this is without a Center, No Right Tackle, no CBs, no Deebo or Edge opposite Bosa. Plus Bosa will need to get paid in the future seasons. And the kicker we will have 0 1st or 2nd rnd picks in 2022 or 2023.

In my scenario we could keep everyone and then have the 40 mil from Watson to pay a top 1st rnd QB and cover some of the other positions through FA and then still have 1st and 2nd round picks in 2022 and 2023.
If we go for Watson, then we have 1 year to win (this year, first year in new system) after that we would need to re-tool the roster in order to be under the cap, and do that without any top draft picks.

Like where u are going with this. $45 million for a QB who WILL miss significant time and a great left tackle who has missed and will miss several games is wayyyyy too much money. Trading Jimmy G will net some kinda pick while saving money. Villanueva could be signed for $12-14 million per yr. Why not shore up center by signing Linsley for about $12 million per yr. Draft Vera-Tucker or another player who can play guard or tackle after 1 trade down. Washington is prime candidate for trade down. Pick up additional 2nd rd pick. For all those wanting a mobile QB, marriota could be signed for cheap on an incentive based contract. An upgrade at QB could simply be put as someone better than the backups. Jimmy G has potential but potential never took anyone to super bowl while watching from the sidelines. A good OL and DL could be had with extra draft picks and money. Cutting Ford and Richburg post June 1st will net an additional $23 million to sign additional post June 1st cuts. Focus draft on OG, CB, and DE. Maybe a safety, FB, or LB as a luxury pick in 4th rd

Geez, to much time on your hands bro.

Originally posted by danielrod1008:
Like where u are going with this. $45 million for a QB who WILL miss significant time and a great left tackle who has missed and will miss several games is wayyyyy too much money. Trading Jimmy G will net some kinda pick while saving money. Villanueva could be signed for $12-14 million per yr. Why not shore up center by signing Linsley for about $12 million per yr. Draft Vera-Tucker or another player who can play guard or tackle after 1 trade down. Washington is prime candidate for trade down. Pick up additional 2nd rd pick. For all those wanting a mobile QB, marriota could be signed for cheap on an incentive based contract. An upgrade at QB could simply be put as someone better than the backups. Jimmy G has potential but potential never took anyone to super bowl while watching from the sidelines. A good OL and DL could be had with extra draft picks and money. Cutting Ford and Richburg post June 1st will net an additional $23 million to sign additional post June 1st cuts. Focus draft on OG, CB, and DE. Maybe a safety, FB, or LB as a luxury pick in 4th rd

Thanks for the support, you're probably the first that agrees with the needed focus on durability and the risk of tying up too much cap to injury prone players. In my view we need to spread the risk out on more players and not have our 5 highest paid players on IR for half the season, should be doable at least it seems that other teams can manage to avoid this.
I like your idea of going for a tackle/guard early, but by doing it in the 1st we miss the opportunity of trading for the Texans 1st rounder in 2022.
From what I have heard the tackle class is pretty deep and guys like Walker Little or Dillon Radunz should be very capable additions for the 49ers and could take over McGlincheys spot in 2022 if we don't extend him.

Originally posted by Cjsloth:
Thanks for the support, you're probably the first that agrees with the needed focus on durability and the risk of tying up too much cap to injury prone players. In my view we need to spread the risk out on more players and not have our 5 highest paid players on IR for half the season, should be doable at least it seems that other teams can manage to avoid this.
I like your idea of going for a tackle/guard early, but by doing it in the 1st we miss the opportunity of trading for the Texans 1st rounder in 2022.
From what I have heard the tackle class is pretty deep and guys like Walker Little or Dillon Radunz should be very capable additions for the 49ers and could take over McGlincheys spot in 2022 if we don't extend him.

Guess we're on an island. $20-23 per yr for Williams is wayyyy too much. With green bay paying their LT about that amount Williams is worth it. Other scenario I would like is to maybe trade Warner for 2 possible 1st or a 1st and a second (dolphins). Get ur future QB and still get a tackle or guard with other 1st. Not gonna be a liked scenario but would benefit team for next 5 yrs. Pick 1 of Chazz Surratt or Jabril Cox with 2nd rd pick to try to make up some production lost by moving Warner. Lots of OL options in first 3 rds. There will be lots of players cut with new cap. 1 yr deals can be had and a playoff run will be made this yr.

This would make us a below .500 team