Originally posted by communist:
Originally posted by jreff22:
Another point to look at. This years QB class really kind of sucks, aside from Bradford and Clausen the drop off is massive. That's why I think McCoy will go in 2nd. Tebow I have a feeling goes to Jax at #10 or wherever they are drafting this year. After those 4 guys go, it will be a while before another QB is taken.
some people tell me that the rams could draft suh (in the first) und a (franchise) QB in the second round...what do you think?
no pike in the 2nd?
how should clausen win the big games if his defense sucks??? i mean, for example look at the stanford game...even 5 TD passes arent enough.
and there are some things I learned in the past: even if a statistic shows you a "correlation" it have not to mean much...you can't say "he will suck because he is a junior...look at the past". you have to look, why the other guys busted. and if you find those weaknesses and if clausen got that weakness either then you have your statistic. but then it isnt a "junior-problem" anymore. seniors could have this weakness, too.
and just one more: perhaps bradford is a senior on the paper, but he only played three years. clausen played about three years, too.
As far as a franchise guy in the 2nd...could happen but nobody is really overly impressive at this point. It could be Pike or it could be McCoy, depends on who is available and where they grade out as far as BPA. Regarding Pike, his stock was VERY high early to mid year but once the injury happened he started to fall. I had him as this years Flacco early in the season but his play of late has been so so, couple that with the nagging injury, I doubt he will be the first pick in the second round.
Remember I'm not bashing Clausen, I'm simply stating the truth. I give him more leeway due to the supporting cast around him and the difficulty ND faces getting top level recruits. But as stated, he has lost the vast majority of big games and I can say he has lost games that should of been won. Granted it's a team loss of course, but people will still put that on his resume.
As far as you comments about junior's entering the draft,
read this. I understand your argument but the fact is a higher % of juniors fail compare to seniors. Sure their are always exceptions but if the "differences" were that easy to read those guys would of never been drafted. The reason they were drafted was because teams needed a QB and they were available. You're trying to argue something that you cant win unfortunately, sure 9 times out of 10 isn't a guarantee but the risk is higher on that gamble.
Every guy that "busts" will have similarities (with the others) but will also have differences, you can point your finger at 1 specific thing because the variables are different in each scenario ie coaches, coordinators, WR's, O Line, quality of the D ect ect. Only time will tell with each QB, but one major similarity would be rushing a guy too soon. Yes seniors can have this issue but normally they come out more mature and experienced. Even though Bradford isn't playing he's still in meetings, watching tape ect ect...one more year of being around the game then any junior will have.
Regarding an earlier question about Suh, yes he could be the first guy taken. But with Bulger possibly retiring and the obvious non-replacement for him on the team...what would you do? Another reason I have a problem with them taking Suh is their previous drafting track record:
2007 13 Adam Carriker DE Nebraska
2008 2 Chris Long DE Virginia
2009 2 Jason Smith OT Baylor
They have taken a D Lineman twice the last 3 years, last time I checked they weren't getting any better with them:
2007 3-13
2008 2-14
2009 1-15
Suh will grade out higher then any other kid this year, that's a fact!! But the bigger issue is they need a QB of and for the future and you have the best chance to get that picking #1 overall. If they feel taking a DT will help them a few years from now more then a QB.....they are obviously content losing.
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