What will the Rams do with the #1 overall pick ?

So, our division rivals have the top pick as we all already know...to some the choice is clearly what appears to be everyone's #1 player in this class Ndamukong Suh, however in reality it looks like a 3 horse race.

The Rams still need to get better along the DL. They ranked 29th in total D (25th vs the pass, 27th vs the run & 30th in sacks with 25 total sacks). To date they have one player whom they should be building around up front and that is Chris Long.

The FA market holds a lot of defensive names (Peppers, Kampman, KVB, Dumervil, Ogunleye, Wilfork, Seymour amongst others however I do realize not all may hit the open market). And there is a rumor that Osi Umenyiora may be done in NY or be looking to get out after he saw a significant drop in playing time, so that may be a possibility to pursue via trade, especially considering the history between Spags and Osi.

Offensively they ranked 29th overall (28th passing offense). They surrendered 1 less sack than 2008 so they will need to further improve the OL as well, I'm guessing 2008 1st rounder Jason Smith will be moved over to the left side now (he only played in 8 games and started 5) in an attempt to improve pass protection. As we saw this year, Marc Bulger did not appear to be the long term answer in their WCO and Kyle Boller and Keith Null did not leave any hope for the future at the QB position either. Bulger has a fat contract on the books and rumors are swirling that he may be let go.

FA yields little to no hope for a short term answer with the best option possibly being a QB who may not even attempt to play again after suffering yet another injury to his shoulder (and now has had 3 surgeries on said shoulder) in Chad Pennington. Outside of the that there are the Kitna's, Culpepper's and Grossman's.

The trade market may have Jason Campbell, Kellen Clemens, Tavaris Jackson or Troy Smith. Some may wonder, well what about Kevin Kolb or the always rumored to be traded in the offseason McNabb. However there is nothing to support that Philadelphia wants to trade either. As of right now it appears the only 3 available via trade may be Jason Campbell (fell out of favor in Washington), Tavaris Jackson (who has been the subject of trade rumors) and Troy Smith (who has asked to be traded once the season concludes), and 2 of those guys have shown the ability to be anything more than backups. Smith has not really gotten opportunity and Kolb has looked really bad in some opportunities and pretty good in others so they are both hard to gauge.

The one thing that makes Kolb an intriguing name to the Rams is that their OC Pat Shurmur was his QB coach in Philly so there is familiarity between them.

Now while Suh is the consensus BPA in this entire class let's take a look at 1st & 2nd QB selections over the last 20 years and how that has panned out percentage wise :

2nd round QB's have an incredibly high bust rate percentage. In the last 20 years we have seen 4 (Drew Brees, Chad Henne (to date), Jake Plummer & Brett Favre) of 22 2nd round QB's become franchise signal callers. That's about an 18% chance of success.

Of 1st round QB's in that same span, 44 in total, 13 have become franchise QB's (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Plamer, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, Drew Bledsoe, Troy Aikman). Left off that list are Kerry Collins, Jay Cutler, VY as you may call them what you may. That's 30%.

So 1 in nearly every 3 first rounders are franchise QB's compared to 1 in nearly 5 second rounders are franchise QB's.


Personally I think they will not be sold on any one of the 3 until early April when they are able to see both Bradford and Clausen workout as both have had surgeries (Bradford on his shoulder, Clausen on his foot for torn ligaments in his toes which he played with almost all season long). In the end I think they will opt for one of the 2 QB's as they have passed on 2 franchise QB's in the last 2 drafts (Ryan and Sanchez) and not make the same mistake 3 times in a row.

With all this said, in your opinion who will the Rams take and why ?

I say they take Bradford if he is healthy at the combine. They drafted Long at DE and while Suh is the better choice that would be a lot of money invested into the DL.

Null is not the answer at Qb, Bulger has become injury prone, i think they go QB and draft Clausen

I understand the importance of drafting a franchise QB, but not at the expense of the top DT to come out in a generation. Suh is tooooooooo good to pass up for Clausen or Bradford, IMO.

I believe the Rams will draft Suh. Heck, they may trade back to land a QB and some picks, but I don't know who would want to jump up to take Suh at #1. That is why I that Suh will be a Ram once the dust settles.

Clausen and Bradford are not clear cut #1s. Suh is, again IMHO.

Originally posted by ninertico:
I understand the importance of drafting a franchise QB, but not at the expense of the top DT to come out in a generation. Suh is tooooooooo good to pass up for Clausen or Bradford, IMO.

I believe the Rams will draft Suh. Heck, they may trade back to land a QB and some picks, but I don't know who would want to jump up to take Suh at #1. That is why I that Suh will be a Ram once the dust settles.

Clausen and Bradford are not clear cut #1s. Suh is, again IMHO.

This is what I think. Mostly. Then I think, um, but we are talking about the Rams!

Their coach made his name because of dominating Dline play. Suh will be the choice, they'll have a FA like Vick or maybe even Mcnabb come in to hold the line. They will be picking top 5 again, so they can get a QB then.

I pray they take a QB . . . but they'll probably take Suh . . .

Originally posted by ninertico:
I understand the importance of drafting a franchise QB, but not at the expense of the top DT to come out in a generation. Suh is tooooooooo good to pass up for Clausen or Bradford, IMO.

I believe the Rams will draft Suh. Heck, they may trade back to land a QB and some picks, but I don't know who would want to jump up to take Suh at #1. That is why I that Suh will be a Ram once the dust settles.

Clausen and Bradford are not clear cut #1s. Suh is, again IMHO.

It's easy to sit here and say that when your team is sitting where they are. If we had the #1 pick and we had to trot out a trio of a broke down Bulger, Kyle Boller & Some dude named Null you'd be saying take Claussen or Bradford.

To us sure Suh is the best player. In their situation. Not so much. Especially after drafting Long & Carriker in recent drafts.



They will go Claussen or Bradford.

Suh is hands down the best prospect in this draft and should go #1 overall. Spags had great success in NY because of his DL, so I can see how that selection makes the most sense.

But I wouldn't count out Clausen. Franchise QB > Franchise DT, and Spags found ways to get the most from his players in NY without a stud undertackle (Tuck only slipped inside on passing downs when they still had Strahan). Bradford is coming off shoulder surgery and Clausen may be viewed as having a higher ceiling.

Basically, I think its 60/40 Suh over Clausen at this point.

What's the difference between Glen Dorsey in college and Suh now?

Everyone was saying the same thing about Glen but he has yet to have a big impact (though haven't watched him play this past season).

[ Edited by fortyninerglory on Jan 12, 2010 at 08:59:09 ]

Originally posted by fortyninerglory:
What's the difference between Glen Dorsey in college and Suh now?

Everyone was saying the same thing about Glen but he has yet to have a big impact (though haven't watched him play this past season).

Enjoy!

http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/thread.php?num=134588&highlight=dorsey

Hopefully they take Suh. Bulger isn't the answer and Null is a big question mark. I'd much rather they had a stud DT than a franchise QB.

DTs don't win games for you. The Rams are a disaster on offense. If you shutdown Jackson, they can't win.

I think they get a QB this offseason, but I'm not sure it's through the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if they traded for one like Kolb, Campbell, or some other guy especially if they dont see the value of the QBs available in this draft.

Originally posted by ninertico:
I understand the importance of drafting a franchise QB, but not at the expense of the top DT to come out in a generation. Suh is tooooooooo good to pass up for Clausen or Bradford, IMO.

I believe the Rams will draft Suh. Heck, they may trade back to land a QB and some picks, but I don't know who would want to jump up to take Suh at #1. That is why I that Suh will be a Ram once the dust settles.

Clausen and Bradford are not clear cut #1s. Suh is, again IMHO.

As far as a trade back I see only 1 option,...Tampa Bay, who hold 2 second rounders, swapping with St.Louis (# 1 for #3 & a second rounder) to land Suh and the Rams taking their QB at #3.

Originally posted by TX9R:
Their coach made his name because of dominating Dline play. Suh will be the choice, they'll have a FA like Vick or maybe even Mcnabb come in to hold the line. They will be picking top 5 again, so they can get a QB then.

This has little importance in making the selection, if anything usually HC's choose a player on the other side of the ball. Remember the GM has the final say in most cases anyhow.

Recent history from this decade :

Detroit - Schwartz (defensive background) made a living off pressure from his front 4 in Tenn. and took a QB #1 overall and not a defensive player.

Atlanta - Mike Smith (defensive background) chose Matt Ryan over Glenn Dorsey

Houston - Gary Kubiak (offensive background) chose Mario Williams over Jesus in Cleats

Cincy - Marvin Lewis (defensive background) chose a QB not a defensive player.

Houston - Dom Capers (defensive background) chose a QB not a defensive player.

And the argument that they will be picking top 5 (or top 10 even) again next year and can get a QB then is a poor one. There are 2 QB's who look to be top 10 possibilities currently (Locker and Mallet) and there is no guarantee either would be on the board when they pick. You can't bank on the future because you don;t know what it holds.