Originally posted by RonMexico:
Originally posted by ImaMod:
Since you're already stating he would be elite wouldn't you rather have an elite WR? Did you watch the nfc championship game?
who is an elite WR we can get?
Seriously....Unless we trade up for Blackmon, Floyd, or Wright no one at the backend of the 1st round is "elite". Sure they could develop into a baller (i.e. Hakeem Nicks) but more then likely they will end up like Arrelious Benn(#40 overall) and be marginal #2 WRs.
Here is an interesting tidbit copied from an ESPN article written during the 2011 Draft...
The 40 first-round picks since 2001 have combined to play 199 seasons in the NFL. Only 41 of those 199 seasons (20.6 percent) saw the receiver eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. Only 17 of the 40 receivers have registered a 1,000-yard season and just nine have done it more than once.(1)
Even if you were to ignore their rookie seasons to account for an NFL learning curve, you'd have 159 seasons and 40 1,000-yard seasons (25.2 percent). Michael Clayton was the only receiver of the group with a 1,000-yard season his rookie year and he never had more than 484 in a season after that.(2)
Compiling the stats from the cumulative 199 seasons for all 40 first-round receivers, the average season hasn't been up to the standards of the top receivers in the league.
Last season alone, 47 wideouts had 48 receptions, 45 had 653 receiving yards and 52 caught four or more touchdown passes.
Go back 20 years and first-round receivers have averaged 13.6 games, 47.5 receptions, 665.8 yards and 4.2 touchdowns per season. That list even includes Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt, three of the top 10 in career receiving yards.(3)
Other pieces of the puzzle when determining risk are durability and longevity.
No other position drafted since 2001 has seen a higher percentage of players inactive in 2010. Eleven of the 40 first-round receivers did not play in a game last season, meaning 72.5 percent of all first-round receivers played. Defensive backs (79.3 percent) were the only other position to dip below 80 percent.
Those 11 wide receivers averaged 5.1 seasons in their careers. Five of those receivers played their last games in or prior to 2006. Only two other offensive players drafted in 2001 or later (running back William Green and tackle Kenyatta Walker) were out by 2006.(4)
Calvin Johnson is the only survivor of the Lions' infamous string of first-round receivers. What happened in Detroit may have been comical, but it exemplified the perils of drafting a wideout in the first round.
Before picking Johnson in 2007, the Lions used those top-10 picks on Charles Rogers (2003), Roy Williams (2004) and Mike Williams (2005). Rogers and Johnson represent the extreme: Rogers is one of the 11 wide receivers picked in the first round since 2001 already out of the NFL and Johnson is one of the nine receivers to post multiple 1,000-yard seasons. Johnson is also one of the eight to make an AP All-Pro team and a Pro Bowl.(4)
Since 2001, there has been a one-in-four chance a receiver would be out of the NFL within five years (Rogers). There is also a one-in-four chance to draft an elite talent (Johnson). Both Mike and Roy Williams represent the other guys -- wild cards, if you will.
Mike Williams joined Rogers as a bust before reviving his career and becoming a serviceable receiver with the Seahawks (751 yards in 2010, three 100-yard games). Roy Williams started his career off strong, picking up 1,310 receiving yards in his third season. Since then, he has been traded to the Cowboys and hasn't topped 900 yards in a season.
With teams passing more and using more three-wide receiver sets, the perception has become that drafting a first-round talent at wide receiver is a necessity. However, despite the increase in pass plays and three-wide receiver formations, wide receivers haven't been targeted more.
Pass-catching tight ends and running backs are still just as important in offenses. As teams use more platoons at running back and as tight ends become more athletic, that is not likely to change.
The sheer volume of wide receivers in the draft gives teams plenty of opportunities to get a high-caliber player. On a per game basis, first-round receivers since 2001 have averaged 3.4 receptions, 48.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Receivers drafted in the second round or later have averaged 2.1 receptions, 27.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns per game. (Those numbers were compiled from the 235 wide receivers who played at least one game.)(7)
When thinking of the difference between a first-round receiver and a second-round-or-later receiver, one 20-yard catch per game probably isn't what comes to mind, but players like Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco, Vincent Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace(among others) have helped close that gap.
A.J. Green and Julio Jones are the only two wide receivers projected to go in the first round this month, according to both Todd McShay's and Mel Kiper's most recent mock drafts. Both could translate to 1,000-yard talents, but statistically speaking, each has only a one-in-four shot to be a real difference maker.
This was written to critique the other WRs from the 2011 class and put it in perspective that Julio and Green were the only talents worth of 1st round picks and they were right for the most part, as the Chiefs "reached" for Jonathan Baldwin with the #24 pick.
1. In 10 years only 40 of the receivers taken in round one have posted "#1 receiver statistics" of 1K yards or more) and only 17 of those receivers have done it more then once.
2. Only 1 rookie posted 1K yards or more during that 10 years, after that amazing year he never broke 500 again.
3. In 2010 47 receivers(from 1st rounds to UDFAs) had almost identical stats as the 20 year average of #1 round receivers.
4. 11 first round WRs were out of the league 2006, only 2 other 1st round offensive players from all positions were out of the league as quickly as the WRs.
5. It took the Matt Millen lions 4 top 10 receivers to land a legitimate talent. Charles Rogers(2003) is one of the players out of the league by 2006 and Calvin John is 1 of those 17 WRs to post multiple 1K yard seasons. Sure the failure at the postion could be attributed to bad talent evaluation but I bet the players wouldn't have done much better at other teams.
The 6th and arguably most important point!
Despite the shift to pass happy, spread offenses with a minimum of 3 WRs on the field receivers have not seen an increase in targets. TEs and RBs have remained just as important as ever and many could say have become even more integral and important because of the focus put on the WRs.
7. The stat line comparing a 1st round receiver to a 2nd rounder(or later) on a per game basis since 2001.
1st: 3.4 receptions, 48.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns
2nd: 2.1 receptions, 27.5 yards and 0.2 touchdowns
A 1 catch difference for 20 yards and a small increase in the chance of touchdown do not warrant the issue of forcing a WR to us in round 1. Should a better player(i.e. Fleener at TE, Lamar Miller at RB, etc) be on the board when Sanu, Randle, or even Jeffery is on the board we would be better served taking a BPA at another position or trading back 10-15 spots and selecting a WR at that point while accruing an extra pick to use on a RB or DB.
Bottom line:
Dont force the issue and stop saying we need a WR in the 1st. We need playmakers on offense period, whether it is a WR, a TE, or even a RB. A 1st round WR is not a guaranteed success story, and as my stat on players out of the league by 2006(drafts from 200-2006) showcases only 1 RB and 1 Tackle were out of the league in the same time that 11 1st round WRs were out of the league.
A 1 in 4 chance at finding a great 1st round WR is not worth the risk when you can select an RB, TE, DB, OLB or any other postion as BPA with a higher likelihood of a success.
[ Edited by sfout on Feb 21, 2012 at 8:42 AM ]
I bow out of this one, don''t wanna be glued to one thread.
