WR - Breshad Perriman UCF

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
I'll start off by saying to me, "value" means nothing. You don't get success as a team by bringing home a good report card the day after the draft, you gain success by those players becoming good professionals.

That being said, Devin Smith in the 2nd round would be an absolute horrible investment. Maybe in the 4th round getting him is "good value", but if you're drafting a player in the 2nd, you should have reasonable expectations for that player to be a starter, if not a potential Pro-Bowl talent. If you draft a player that was projected to go in the 3rd round in the 1st, and that player goes on to be an All-Pro, the people who criticized that GM will later be laughed at, not the GM. Nobody's gonna look back at a player whose highly successful and said "Ya, his team still messed up drafting him that high".

Absolutely nothing about Smith's production or skill-set that spells anything past a 1-trick pony deep threat in the NFL.

Perriman possesses a handful of rare qualities that spell potential #1 WR. The only one that Smith has, his deep speed, isn't even as good as Perriman's.

I disagree about Smith. His game film shows a LOT of 9 routes, for sure, but that's what he was asked to do. If you watch 49er games the last two years, you would think that Vance McDonald excels at blocking only. You would not think that he can be successful as a red zone jump ball threat, but that's exactly how he made his name in college. He just isn't asked to do that here; doesn't mean he can't.

I thought Smith's routes looked pretty good at the combine for someone who is still learning. I was encouraged by his agility and acceleration out of his breaks. He is a natural hands catcher. He was successful when he ran curl routes at OSU, and you have to understand route running to succeed in those routes. Having a feel for where to settle between zones our how to set your man up for the break back to the QB is not easy. I think he'd be a project, but nothing suggests that he can't do it. I think 2/3 is just right for him, unless he really impresses a team at a personal workout by running nearly flawless routes throughout the tree.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Buck didn't you read LowerTheBoom and Jrouter4949's posts? They don't put much stock in STATS unless it proves their point

thanks for some good FACTS

Clearly other people either didn't read or absorb what I said.

You act like I just simply said that I don't agree with that stat for the simple fact that it's a stat and nothing else.

I explained in detail WHY and HOW that stat can be incredibly misleading and cited several variables in doing so. I'm not the one being adamant that a particular stat or two is the End All, Be All metric in who the better player is.

I've referred to game film over and over to back up what I'm saying. Stats can be debated, the physical skills and ability that show up during a game are not "variable".

It comes down to the fact Devin Smith is riding some stupid hype that comes with winning a national championship on a powerhouse, premier football program, as well people running away with a COMPLETELY ERRONEOUS comparison to DeSean Jackons -- which starts and ends with both players being light skinned black guys and running fast...

...and the fact that Perriman flew under the radar pretty much the whole college season, didn't have a "sexy name", or the national exposure of a player playing in a huge program and in a national championship game.

People don't like to admit that they didn't spot such obvious talent earlier, that's why there are people in this thread in complete denial about even the most obvious things like Perriman's deep speed.

Because they are such great armchair GM's, that there is NO WAY talent could have slipped their eye lol

Correct I look at game film as well,especially who they are playing against. Like I mentioned before Smith played very well against some top defenses in the league and against some of the best CBs last year (Michigan St).

Personally I don't think either player will be #1 WR in this league for different reasons.

Perriman's been talked about as a sleeper 1st rd pick since the being on the draft process....I knew who he was, I know he has speed before his pro-day . I don't think either Perriman or Smith are 1st round picks to be honest....I would rather draft some like Sammie Coates in the 2nd or 3rd instead of spend a 1st on Perriman, to me they offer the same thing, are the same size, and are both athletic freaks. They also both drop a ton of balls and are weak on the route-running. Both have upside but need a lot of work.

That's my 2 cents on Perriman

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
It's about sample size, brother.

When you only have 60 balls thrown your way, 7 drops is gonna look A LOT worse than if you have 120 balls thrown your way.

His drop rate is his drop rate. It does not matter how he looks to you on film. He dropped 13.79 % of the catchable balls thrown to him last year.

Increasing the number of targets or catchable passes will not automatically improve the drop rate, but you know that already, don't you.

For the drop rate to improve, he has to catch more of the catchable balls thrown to him. He has to improve his skill set. If he does not do the work to improve his skill set, the drop rate will more than likely remain more or less the same

Dropping 13.79 % of catchable passes thrown just is not good.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
Devin Smith wasn't a full time player for Ohio St.... I disagree with the low number of targets because other WR's have been a lot more productive in Urban Meyer's offense, even if it is simplified.

I also do no think that Smith would only primarily be targeted on deep balls if he was doing a good job of getting open underneath.

You claimed that Smith disappeared completely. I disputed, and am disputing, that claim.

You linked the number of his receptions to this alleged disappearance. I think you are putting too much value on that single stat.

Smith played in all of the teams 15 games. He started 10 games. He had 33 receptions on 48 targets. Smith was third on the team in receptions, he led the team in yards, yards per catch, and receiving touchdowns. Not bad for a player who "disappeared completely."

Smith was targeted 48 times. How many of those passes were on deep, intermediate, and short routes? Was Smith targeted "only" on deep routes or was he targeted "primarily" on deep routes. How many of his 33 receptions came on deep routes?


I posted the Ohio State receiving stats from last year in another post. .

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Buck didn't you read LowerTheBoom and Jrouter4949's posts? They don't put much stock in STATS unless it proves their point

thanks for some good FACTS

Funny, because the claim made by lowertheboom that Devin Smith disappeared completely was clearly linked to a stat, his 33 receptions. If I am not mistaken, the number of receptions that a receiver has is a stat.

By the way, I am only disputing that claim. It seems overly disparaging and entirely ignores other readily available stats. Team rank in yards, yards per reception, touchdown receptions and his relatively high catch %.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
I disagree about Smith. His game film shows a LOT of 9 routes, for sure, but that's what he was asked to do. If you watch 49er games the last two years, you would think that Vance McDonald excels at blocking only. You would not think that he can be successful as a red zone jump ball threat, but that's exactly how he made his name in college. He just isn't asked to do that here; doesn't mean he can't.

I thought Smith's routes looked pretty good at the combine for someone who is still learning. I was encouraged by his agility and acceleration out of his breaks. He is a natural hands catcher. He was successful when he ran curl routes at OSU, and you have to understand route running to succeed in those routes. Having a feel for where to settle between zones our how to set your man up for the break back to the QB is not easy. I think he'd be a project, but nothing suggests that he can't do it. I think 2/3 is just right for him, unless he really impresses a team at a personal workout by running nearly flawless routes throughout the tree.

Thank you, that is the best post in defense of Smith's ability that I have read, that doesn't refer to selective stats and completely ignoring variables.

I still do not see an NFL starter in him. These conversations get so black and white, you get fans of a player who talk about their guy like they are a flawless prospect, then others point out obvious flaws and it turns into "He's either gonna be the GOAT or he sucks".

And yes, I do agree with and didn't say he is incapable of breaking off routes in the NFL... just that there is film of Perriman having success doing this in games, and very little, if any, of Devin Smith doing the same in games. With Devin Smith having much more talented and well coached QB's throwing to him.

I think there's a niche for Devin Smith in the NFL, when you got speed like that and can track the ball over your shoulder, there is always a team that can use you, but these dudes in here are trying to compare him with a guy that has a #1 WR size, freak athleticism, and can kill you deep, short, RZ or with the ball in his hands.

I'm done talking about Devin Smith lol.

Originally posted by buck:


His drop rate is his drop rate. It does not matter how he looks to you on film. He dropped 13.79 % of the catchable balls thrown to him last year.

Increasing the number of targets or catchable passes will not automatically improve the drop rate, but you know that already, don't you.

For the drop rate to improve, he has to catch more of the catchable balls thrown to him. He has to improve his skill set. If he does not do the work to improve his skill set, the drop rate will more than likely remain more or less the same

Dropping 13.79 % of catchable passes thrown just is not good.

If you don't understand what the difference in having a small vs large sample size is, you just don't get it. Thing is, you think you made some kind of intelligent point but you totally exposed your own lack of understanding statistics and the variables that come with it.

Originally posted by buck:
Funny, because the claim made by lowertheboom that Devin Smith disappeared completely was clearly linked to a stat, his 33 receptions. If I am not mistaken, the number of receptions that a receiver has is a stat.

By the way, I am only disputing that claim. It seems overly disparaging and entirely ignores other readily available stats. Team rank in yards, yards per reception, touchdown receptions and his relatively high catch %.

No, it was linked to the fact that Devin Smith had 2 or fewer catches in 8 games this season. So ya, you are mistaken. I can rep you for self-awareness.

The stats I cited were used in conjunction to back up observations I made about what I saw. I didn't say "Oh, look at this stat", and cut out any and all critical thinking and observations like you guys are doing.

What kind of moron's are running NFL front offices if a handful of stats that anyone can google tell you the whole story? lol.

Nothing more to add. We'll revisit Smith vs. Perriman in a couple years.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by buck:


His drop rate is his drop rate. It does not matter how he looks to you on film. He dropped 13.79 % of the catchable balls thrown to him last year.

Increasing the number of targets or catchable passes will not automatically improve the drop rate, but you know that already, don't you.

For the drop rate to improve, he has to catch more of the catchable balls thrown to him. He has to improve his skill set. If he does not do the work to improve his skill set, the drop rate will more than likely remain more or less the same

Dropping 13.79 % of catchable passes thrown just is not good.

If you don't understand what the difference in having a small vs large sample size is, you just don't get it. Thing is, you think you made some kind of intelligent point but you totally exposed your own lack of understanding statistics and the variables that come with it.

He's not necessarily wrong, though. If Perriman caught/dropped catchable balls at the same rate with more targets, it would mean more against him, because it would be a stronger trend, but who says he would do better with more targets? What if he'd do worse? The drop rate is discouraging, whether he dropped ~14% of 60 passes or ~14% of 120 passes. The small sample size could be used to argue that he might actually be better than that, but it could just as easily be used to argue that he could be worse. The fact is that he didn't get more targets, so that 13.79 percent has to stand. Maybe coaches see something they can improve easily, maybe they see something more of a persistent issue. Every staff will have to answer that themselves.

I have to admit an instinctive bias against him. I was spoiled by Jerry Rice, and I expect top tier WR to be smoothe runners who stride like thoroughbreds. Dude looks like a pitbull when he runs, and it throws me off, lol.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
He's not necessarily wrong, though. If Perriman caught/dropped catchable balls at the same rate with more targets, it would mean more against him, because it would be a stronger trend, but who says he would do better with more targets? What if he'd do worse? The drop rate is discouraging, whether he dropped ~14% of 60 passes or ~14% of 120 passes. The small sample size could be used to argue that he might actually be better than that, but it could just as easily be used to argue that he could be worse. The fact is that he didn't get more targets, so that 13.79 percent has to stand. Maybe coaches see something they can improve easily, maybe they see something more of a persistent issue. Every staff will have to answer that themselves.

I have to admit an instinctive bias against him. I was spoiled by Jerry Rice, and I expect top tier WR to be smoothe runners who stride like thoroughbreds. Dude looks like a pitbull when he runs, and it throws me off, lol.

And I never argued that his drop rate was good, and that he had nothing to work on in the hands department.

You pose the question "What if he did WORSE?" - which I will say, is a fair, and legitimate question.

So if we're gonna project (Which IS what most of the evaluation/scouting process is....) a guess on whether he would do better or worse with a large sample size, you go back and look at the actual skill and ability showing on tape.

A guy with truly BAD hands (i.e. clumsy, bad hand eye coordination), will eventually get exposed. These are guys that HAVE to be hit in stride, catch with their body, lose focus in traffic, etc. G

Nothing on tape shows me that Perriman just has bad hands. He consistently shows the ability to:

1) Catch with his hands

2) Catch passes in traffic

3) Adjust to poorly thrown balls.


Again, these are not my "opinions" or blanket statements, they are factual observations that can be verified with visual evidence. There is no "What If..." when it comes Perriman's ability and skills he displays.

I know you were just playing Devil's Advocate posing the question, but I didn't just disregard the stat because "omgz i < 3 PeRrImAn" and am a "Devin Smith h8er"... it's because the RARE physical hand skills that he shows he on tape tell a completely different story about his hands than the thoughtless direct correlation on drop rate that the stat those other guys showed.

You wanna know what ELSE the stat doesn't show? How many times Perriman was wide open and either got a throw so bad he couldn't work with it or the QB didn't see him together. If his QB hits him when he is supposed to even 10 more times throughout the season and he actually gets some good passes his way, that DRASTICALLY affects his drop rate.

The fact is that he didn't get more targets, so that 13.79 percent has to stand.

I know you are smart enough to know that actual scouts look at circumstances regarded player stats more than the actual stat, especially for small school players who are surrounded by inferior talent.

Sure, it stands, and yes it's something to consider. It stands tall telling only a small part of the story, for the factual reasons I cited.


I can appreciate you admit there is a bias, though lol. And at least you pose questions and possibilities, the other guys seem in total denial that their 1 stat they found isn't a window to the player's soul.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Correct I look at game film as well,especially who they are playing against. Like I mentioned before Smith played very well against some top defenses in the league and against some of the best CBs last year (Michigan St).

Personally I don't think either player will be #1 WR in this league for different reasons.

Perriman's been talked about as a sleeper 1st rd pick since the being on the draft process....I knew who he was, I know he has speed before his pro-day . I don't think either Perriman or Smith are 1st round picks to be honest....I would rather draft some like Sammie Coates in the 2nd or 3rd instead of spend a 1st on Perriman, to me they offer the same thing, are the same size, and are both athletic freaks. They also both drop a ton of balls and are weak on the route-running. Both have upside but need a lot of work.

That's my 2 cents on Perriman

Sammie Coates is a bit shorter, lighter, slower, far less agile, and less productive tan Perriman. Outside of some vague similarities like speed and ability to make tough deep catches, they are not the same player at all.

There's a difference between an athletic freak... and a guy that's real fast. Perriman can stop on a dime, has excellent instincts as a runner with the ball in his hands, has a lot more wiggle and is more powerful than Coates.

Coates I can see being an ok #2 for like an Air Coryell (power running/Play action passing) type of offense or a designated big threat #3, but his skill set is pretty limited. I see Torrey Smith with less fluidity in Sammy Coates.

Coates and Perriman are flawed as route runners for different reasons. Coates is just not very sudden or particularly agile or elusive. Perriman has the physical skills to be a great route runner, he's just raw in terms of his route recognition and hurries through his breaks, rounding them out. With Perriman, it's more about honing in on a skill, with Coates, I think he could put all the time in the world into it and will always have some struggles because he is stiff.

I'll take your word that you know who Perriman was before the draft process, brother. But your observations about Coates having the same skill set and athleticism are not what the tape shows.

Don't take it as I think Coates is no good, like I said, I see a less than ideal #2 or solid #3 in him.... which is not how I want the 49ers to address our future at WR.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
Sammie Coates is a bit shorter, lighter, slower, far less agile, and less productive tan Perriman. Outside of some vague similarities like speed and ability to make tough deep catches, they are not the same player at all.

There's a difference between an athletic freak... and a guy that's real fast. Perriman can stop on a dime, has excellent instincts as a runner with the ball in his hands, has a lot more wiggle and is more powerful than Coates.

Coates I can see being an ok #2 for like an Air Coryell (power running/Play action passing) type of offense or a designated big threat #3, but his skill set is pretty limited. I see Torrey Smith with less fluidity in Sammy Coates.

Coates and Perriman are flawed as route runners for different reasons. Coates is just not very sudden or particularly agile or elusive. Perriman has the physical skills to be a great route runner, he's just raw in terms of his route recognition and hurries through his breaks, rounding them out. With Perriman, it's more about honing in on a skill, with Coates, I think he could put all the time in the world into it and will always have some struggles because he is stiff.

I'll take your word that you know who Perriman was before the draft process, brother. But your observations about Coates having the same skill set and athleticism are not what the tape shows.

Don't take it as I think Coates is no good, like I said, I see a less than ideal #2 or solid #3 in him.... which is not how I want the 49ers to address our future at WR.

I like this Perriman guy too. I didn't know about a pro day. I just know I didn't see him run Combine drills but from what I see he gets major separation and that is exactly what we've been missing. The only WR I see consistently getting more separation is Amari Cooper. If we get a guy that can separate I know Kap can get him the rock. I don't care if he drops a few. So did TO but he made play after play and caught 22 balls in one game. Perriman gets open and makes plays. Explosive ones and we need that more than ever. He got that swag and this is the type of guy I want Kap throwing to. Kiper called this pick early on for us and I gotta say I agree with him

One thing that I really like about the kid is his dad played football, and was a pretty good too. Had a 108rec 1488yrds 9td season one year for the Lions. I brought that up because he probably won't make the bone head mistakes that someone that's never been around the game before makes. Larry Fitz grew up around the game and you've never heard anything about him. So basically, I'm sold pull the trigger get him at 15 and PJ Williams in the second, Perriman could help keep him in check.

Didn't kelvin Benjamin (who should have been our first pick last year) have a poor drop rate? Didn't Terrell Owens?

Perriman has a ton of amazing catches to go along with the drops which means it's a concentration issue.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Correct I look at game film as well,especially who they are playing against. Like I mentioned before Smith played very well against some top defenses in the league and against some of the best CBs last year (Michigan St).

Personally I don't think either player will be #1 WR in this league for different reasons.

Perriman's been talked about as a sleeper 1st rd pick since the being on the draft process....I knew who he was, I know he has speed before his pro-day . I don't think either Perriman or Smith are 1st round picks to be honest....I would rather draft some like Sammie Coates in the 2nd or 3rd instead of spend a 1st on Perriman, to me they offer the same thing, are the same size, and are both athletic freaks. They also both drop a ton of balls and are weak on the route-running. Both have upside but need a lot of work.

That's my 2 cents on Perriman

Sammie Coates is a bit shorter, lighter, slower, far less agile, and less productive tan Perriman. Outside of some vague similarities like speed and ability to make tough deep catches, they are not the same player at all.

There's a difference between an athletic freak... and a guy that's real fast. Perriman can stop on a dime, has excellent instincts as a runner with the ball in his hands, has a lot more wiggle and is more powerful than Coates.

Coates I can see being an ok #2 for like an Air Coryell (power running/Play action passing) type of offense or a designated big threat #3, but his skill set is pretty limited. I see Torrey Smith with less fluidity in Sammy Coates.

Coates and Perriman are flawed as route runners for different reasons. Coates is just not very sudden or particularly agile or elusive. Perriman has the physical skills to be a great route runner, he's just raw in terms of his route recognition and hurries through his breaks, rounding them out. With Perriman, it's more about honing in on a skill, with Coates, I think he could put all the time in the world into it and will always have some struggles because he is stiff.

I'll take your word that you know who Perriman was before the draft process, brother. But your observations about Coates having the same skill set and athleticism are not what the tape shows.

Don't take it as I think Coates is no good, like I said, I see a less than ideal #2 or solid #3 in him.... which is not how I want the 49ers to address our future at WR.

I don't think Coates is good, just similar to perryman and is valued as a 3rd round pick vs a1st...perryman is a inch taller, they both are 212 lbs, Coates has longer arms and bigger hands and they are both fast.

We will keep disagreeing about perriman regardless of what we each say so, you might as well argue with someone less lol

I don't see a top 15 pick at all...but I will be the first to eat crow if he becomes a pro-bowler.