WR - Breshad Perriman UCF

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by buck:


His drop rate is his drop rate. It does not matter how he looks to you on film. He dropped 13.79 % of the catchable balls thrown to him last year.

Increasing the number of targets or catchable passes will not automatically improve the drop rate, but you know that already, don't you.

For the drop rate to improve, he has to catch more of the catchable balls thrown to him. He has to improve his skill set. If he does not do the work to improve his skill set, the drop rate will more than likely remain more or less the same

Dropping 13.79 % of catchable passes thrown just is not good.

If you don't understand what the difference in having a small vs large sample size is, you just don't get it. Thing is, you think you made some kind of intelligent point but you totally exposed your own lack of understanding statistics and the variables that come with it.

Increasing the sample size will not necessarily raise or lower a receivers drop rate.

The sample size is for the year; for 2015. Breshad Perriman had 58 targets with 8 drops for a drop rate of 13.79%.

I do not have the numbers from the previous years. I have looked for them and have not found them.

Pesheck from rotoworld should provide us with the wide receiver drop rates for the last couple of years, but at this point he has not published the information.

When he provides that information, we will see what happens with Perriman's drop rate.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:
No, it was linked to the fact that Devin Smith had 2 or fewer catches in 8 games this season. So ya, you are mistaken. I can rep you for self-awareness.

The stats I cited were used in conjunction to back up observations I made about what I saw. I didn't say "Oh, look at this stat", and cut out any and all critical thinking and observations like you guys are doing.

What kind of moron's are running NFL front offices if a handful of stats that anyone can google tell you the whole story? lol.

Nothing more to add. We'll revisit Smith vs. Perriman in a couple years.

You claimed that Smith disappeared completely.

I do not think that a receiver who leads the team in yards, yards per receptions, and receiving touchdowns has disappeared completely.

I am making my own observations; in other words my comments are mine, not from "you guys."

And if you read my posts carefully with a touch of critical thinking, you will notice that I have not compared Smith and Perriman.

I have not claimed that Smith was a better or worse prospect than Perriman. That is a debate that you may be having with other posters.

I find Perriman's low catch rate and high drop rate somewhat disconcerting. That has nothing to do with Devin Smith.

Smith was not targeted very often last year; 48 targets for the whole year. But, he caught 33 of his targets. His catch rate has been high for the last two years and his production has been good, especially considering his low number of targets or receptions. He seems to do well with the limited number of targets and receptions.

If he had been targeted more, he might have had more receptions, but he was not. Perhaps, that is a reflection on his skill set, but it may be a reflection of the offensive scheme and play calling. I just do not know.

Where was Peeriman ranked before he ran his 40 time? Since then his name has come up a lot which makes me weary. Smith catches the deep ball but watching him at OSU can he do anything besides run a go route? I really like Strong, Cooper and the dark horse is Montgomery late from Stanford. He could return kicks too. You want to add some speed get Duke Johnson and Ty Montgomery late. Maybe we can get Alex Carter in the mid rounds as well. Value picks. I did like Parker but not as much now. Trade back and draft defense or OL in the first round that's what wins you games IMO. Perriman is to risky early.

Originally posted by IHATELOWELLCOHN:

Where was Peeriman ranked before he ran his 40 time? Since then his name has come up a lot which makes me weary. Smith catches the deep ball but watching him at OSU can he do anything besides run a go route? I really like Strong, Cooper and the dark horse is Montgomery late from Stanford. He could return kicks too. You want to add some speed get Duke Johnson and Ty Montgomery late. Maybe we can get Alex Carter in the mid rounds as well. Value picks. I did like Parker but not as much now. Trade back and draft defense or OL in the first round that's what wins you games IMO. Perriman is to risky early.

I don't like Montgomery at all. He's more of a RB playing WR, and not in a good way. I hate his hands and his route running.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
I don't think Coates is good, just similar to perryman and is valued as a 3rd round pick vs a1st...perryman is a inch taller, they both are 212 lbs, Coates has longer arms and bigger hands and they are both fast.

We will keep disagreeing about perriman regardless of what we each say so, you might as well argue with someone less lol

I don't see a top 15 pick at all...but I will be the first to eat crow if he becomes a pro-bowler.

I don't mind of course disagreeing about whether Perriman will be a stand-out #1 WR in the NFL or not, normally I hate players that have drops issues, and that can always negate all the physical talent in the world, so I know there is a bit of risk there.

But outside of both of them having legit NFL deep speed (even though Perriman IS faster) and being in the same ball park in terms of height, they are very different players. Perriman's agility, power and suddenness will make him a weapon on crossers, slants, bubble screens, double moves-- there really is no limit to how he can be used. They both weigh the same, but they don't look the same. Perriman is more well proportioned and has a thicker lower half, which shows when he shrugs off defenders after the catch and runs through contact.

Coates, on the other hand, offers very little outside of being a vertical threat. Where Perriman is an inconsistent and sometimes undisciplined route runner, Coates just doesn't have the baseline physical skills to be a good route runner in the NFL.

And to be fair, I'm sure there are plenty of GM's that might share your view on Perriman, in that his hands and his route running make him too much of a project to go that early. But I will bet that a lot of GM's DO see a Top 15 pick, just because he isn't a "sexy" name like the Big 3 WR's that constantly get mentioned, doesn't mean he isn't getting that kind of respect in confidential team scouting departments.

40 time isn't everything, not at all, but when you get an athlete that is a physical specimen even among NFL players, and shows rare playmaking ability on tape... scouts realize guys like that only come around once every few years.

I remember a few years ago when everyone over-analyzed and nit-picked Chris Johnson as a RB after he ran his 4.24 at Indianapolis, "fans" were still saying he's just a 2nd round pick at best, citing level of competition, etc... Tennessee took him in the 1st round and it proved to be a damn good decision.

The best part about pre-draft debates is that EVERYONE is right, and NOBODY is wrong lol. We will see how this plays out, but even if we don't take him, I will bet anything Perriman is gone in the 1st, and quite possibly ahead of 1 of the Big 3.

Originally posted by IHATELOWELLCOHN:
Where was Peeriman ranked before he ran his 40 time? Since then his name has come up a lot which makes me weary. Smith catches the deep ball but watching him at OSU can he do anything besides run a go route? I really like Strong, Cooper and the dark horse is Montgomery late from Stanford. He could return kicks too. You want to add some speed get Duke Johnson and Ty Montgomery late. Maybe we can get Alex Carter in the mid rounds as well. Value picks. I did like Parker but not as much now. Trade back and draft defense or OL in the first round that's what wins you games IMO. Perriman is to risky early.

That's what I like most about him... He's a known quantity. He's basically a clone of Torrey Smith, Jeremy Maclin, or Mike Wallace. In an average year those guys are good for 850 yards and 7 TD's. In a really good year you're getting 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns. And for a running team, the field stretching ability those guys have is invaluable.

Originally posted by buck:
You claimed that Smith disappeared completely.

I do not think that a receiver who leads the team in yards, yards per receptions, and receiving touchdowns has disappeared completely.

I am making my own observations; in other words my comments are mine, not from "you guys."

And if you read my posts carefully with a touch of critical thinking, you will notice that I have not compared Smith and Perriman.

I have not claimed that Smith was a better or worse prospect than Perriman. That is a debate that you may be having with other posters.

I find Perriman's low catch rate and high drop rate somewhat disconcerting. That has nothing to do with Devin Smith.

Smith was not targeted very often last year; 48 targets for the whole year. But, he caught 33 of his targets. His catch rate has been high for the last two years and his production has been good, especially considering his low number of targets or receptions. He seems to do well with the limited number of targets and receptions.

If he had been targeted more, he might have had more receptions, but he was not. Perhaps, that is a reflection on his skill set, but it may be a reflection of the offensive scheme and play calling. I just do not know.

lol, touch of critical thinking.

I've explained to you in detail how certain stats can be skewed, and you are either choosing not to or completely failing to grasp it.

I also explained to you that he had 2 or fewer grabs in over half the games, yet you keep wanting to turn this into a debate about semantics, because technically having 1 or 2 catches in some of those games isn't "disappearing completely".

You keep citing stats, you refuse to either understand or accept that no stat is a direct correlation to ability... these are not "observations", these are letting numbers on a piece of paper tell the entire story for you. Quite the opposite of "critical thinking".

I've also yet to hear you cite anything that appears on game tape or the football field regarding Devin Smith...

Listen, if you can't understand the law of large numbers, sample size and how production statistics can be skewed by a bunch of different variables out of the player's control... then I'm done having this discussion with you.

Have a good day.

Originally posted by IHATELOWELLCOHN:
Where was Peeriman ranked before he ran his 40 time? Since then his name has come up a lot which makes me weary. Smith catches the deep ball but watching him at OSU can he do anything besides run a go route? I really like Strong, Cooper and the dark horse is Montgomery late from Stanford. He could return kicks too. You want to add some speed get Duke Johnson and Ty Montgomery late. Maybe we can get Alex Carter in the mid rounds as well. Value picks. I did like Parker but not as much now. Trade back and draft defense or OL in the first round that's what wins you games IMO. Perriman is to risky early.

We will never know where REAL NFL teams ranked Breshad Perriman before his pro day, because only a joke of front office lets that information leak.

I'm sure to some degree the national media consensus regarding prospects is accurate, but often times it is WAY off. How many times have we seen a prospect expected to go early drop far, or a team draft a player waaaaay earlier than anyone ever thought of? I can promise you Trent Baalke, John Schneider and Bill Belichick aren't taking time out of their day to sit and disclose their draft boards to Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper Jr.

If Perriman JUST had a crazy 40 time... I personally wouldn't want him. But his on-field performances show that he can be used in any possible way you can use a WR, he has rare playmaking ability, and is a threat to take it to the house whether you give him a 5 yard slant or a go route.

Does he have flaws? Sure-- he has concentration lapses, didn't play at the highest level of competition, and his route running is inconsistent. Now, let's say he DID have perfect hands, played at a powerhouse program and was a polished route runner - at 6-2, 212 lbs with 4.2 speed and elite movement skills, he wouldn't make it out of the Top 3 picks.

And to answer your question, there is close to no visual evidence or game tape of Devin Smith being able to do more than be a deep threat.

I don't think you can say 1 or 2 catches per game is disappearing for a guy that averages 28 yards per catch and a TD on every 3rd catch.

He's not Brandin Cooks or Sammy Watkins so he's not going to kill you with 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TD's. He's going to kill you with 2 catches for 100 yards and 2TD's.

Case in point: Look at the Sugar Bowl game against Alabama: 2 Catches (40 and 47 yards) for 87 yards and a TD.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by buck:
You claimed that Smith disappeared completely.

I do not think that a receiver who leads the team in yards, yards per receptions, and receiving touchdowns has disappeared completely.

I am making my own observations; in other words my comments are mine, not from "you guys."

And if you read my posts carefully with a touch of critical thinking, you will notice that I have not compared Smith and Perriman.

I have not claimed that Smith was a better or worse prospect than Perriman. That is a debate that you may be having with other posters.

I find Perriman's low catch rate and high drop rate somewhat disconcerting. That has nothing to do with Devin Smith.

Smith was not targeted very often last year; 48 targets for the whole year. But, he caught 33 of his targets. His catch rate has been high for the last two years and his production has been good, especially considering his low number of targets or receptions. He seems to do well with the limited number of targets and receptions.

If he had been targeted more, he might have had more receptions, but he was not. Perhaps, that is a reflection on his skill set, but it may be a reflection of the offensive scheme and play calling. I just do not know.

lol, touch of critical thinking.

I've explained to you in detail how certain stats can be skewed, and you are either choosing not to or completely failing to grasp it.

I also explained to you that he had 2 or fewer grabs in over half the games, yet you keep wanting to turn this into a debate about semantics, because technically having 1 or 2 catches in some of those games isn't "disappearing completely".

You keep citing stats, you refuse to either understand or accept that no stat is a direct correlation to ability... these are not "observations", these are letting numbers on a piece of paper tell the entire story for you. Quite the opposite of "critical thinking".

I've also yet to hear you cite anything that appears on game tape or the football field regarding Devin Smith...

Listen, if you can't understand the law of large numbers, sample size and how production statistics can be skewed by a bunch of different variables out of the player's control... then I'm done having this discussion with you.

Have a good day.

Production statistics can be skewed by a number of factors. I have mentioned both offensive scheme and playing calling as two factors that can affect production and the number of receptions per game. Devon Smith does not set the offensive scheme or call plays.

Over the last two years, Smith has had 77 receptions in 29 games. He has averaged 2.66 receptions per game. In the same 29 games, Smith has been targeted 121 times or 4.17 targets per game.

That is the lowest number of targets per game of the receivers that pundits include among the "top" receivers in this draft class.

College football games can not be seen where I live. I have not been able to watch more than two or three college football games in the last ten years.

That is the reason that I have not cited anything that appears on game tape regarding any college player. The best I can do is pay attention to what others have to say and what I can get from looking at statistics.


Anyway, here are the stats on targets for the last two years . And, I hope that you also have a good day.

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by IHATELOWELLCOHN:
Where was Peeriman ranked before he ran his 40 time? Since then his name has come up a lot which makes me weary. Smith catches the deep ball but watching him at OSU can he do anything besides run a go route? I really like Strong, Cooper and the dark horse is Montgomery late from Stanford. He could return kicks too. You want to add some speed get Duke Johnson and Ty Montgomery late. Maybe we can get Alex Carter in the mid rounds as well. Value picks. I did like Parker but not as much now. Trade back and draft defense or OL in the first round that's what wins you games IMO. Perriman is to risky early.

We will never know where REAL NFL teams ranked Breshad Perriman before his pro day, because only a joke of front office lets that information leak.

I'm sure to some degree the national media consensus regarding prospects is accurate, but often times it is WAY off. How many times have we seen a prospect expected to go early drop far, or a team draft a player waaaaay earlier than anyone ever thought of? I can promise you Trent Baalke, John Schneider and Bill Belichick aren't taking time out of their day to sit and disclose their draft boards to Mike Mayock and Mel Kiper Jr.

If Perriman JUST had a crazy 40 time... I personally wouldn't want him. But his on-field performances show that he can be used in any possible way you can use a WR, he has rare playmaking ability, and is a threat to take it to the house whether you give him a 5 yard slant or a go route.

Does he have flaws? Sure-- he has concentration lapses, didn't play at the highest level of competition, and his route running is inconsistent. Now, let's say he DID have perfect hands, played at a powerhouse program and was a polished route runner - at 6-2, 212 lbs with 4.2 speed and elite movement skills, he wouldn't make it out of the Top 3 picks.

And to answer your question, there is close to no visual evidence or game tape of Devin Smith being able to do more than be a deep threat.

Ok you obviously know about this guy. I didn't hear his name mentioned as a 1st round pick until they announed his 40 time which reminds me of Heyward-Bey. Since you know about this guy answer some questions for me please. Who was Peeriman's QB? What kind of offense did they run? How many productive years did he have? The drops that he did have were they balls he tried to body or did they hit his hands and bounce off? Does he create a lot of YAC or was his production mainly from catch and runs where the DB is 15 yards away? Can he get off the press? Finally, any time missed due to injury? I'm not concerned with the drops if he's a body catcher in college because if he has soft hands you can teach technique. Same with the route running. Also, is this guy in your opinon someone we can get at 25 if we trade back or would we have to take him at 15?

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
I don't like Montgomery at all. He's more of a RB playing WR, and not in a good way. I hate his hands and his route running.

You don't think Montgomery would be a good mid round pick up? He seemed explosive in the Stanford games I watched. It did seem at times he would disappear for some length during games but I'm not sure if that was due to play calling because Stanford likes to control the clock with the running game. I did think that the natural talent did not produce the numbers I was expecting last year. The yards per catch and total yardage was very disappointing. Either way I think as day 3 pick late there could be some value had.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by LowerTheBoom:

Originally posted by buck:


His drop rate is his drop rate. It does not matter how he looks to you on film. He dropped 13.79 % of the catchable balls thrown to him last year.

Increasing the number of targets or catchable passes will not automatically improve the drop rate, but you know that already, don't you.

For the drop rate to improve, he has to catch more of the catchable balls thrown to him. He has to improve his skill set. If he does not do the work to improve his skill set, the drop rate will more than likely remain more or less the same

Dropping 13.79 % of catchable passes thrown just is not good.

If you don't understand what the difference in having a small vs large sample size is, you just don't get it. Thing is, you think you made some kind of intelligent point but you totally exposed your own lack of understanding statistics and the variables that come with it.

Increasing the sample size will not necessarily raise or lower a receivers drop rate.

The sample size is for the year; for 2015. Breshad Perriman had 58 targets with 8 drops for a drop rate of 13.79%.

I do not have the numbers from the previous years. I have looked for them and have not found them.

Pesheck from rotoworld should provide us with the wide receiver drop rates for the last couple of years, but at this point he has not published the information.

When he provides that information, we will see what happens with Perriman's drop rate.

before knocking perriman too far down the board for his drops in 2015 I would want to know how he did in his other years at c.florida--was the drop similar?

Originally posted by hofer36:
before knocking perriman too far down the board for his drops in 2015 I would want to know how he did in his other years at c.florida--was the drop similar?

OK, that makes sense. At best the drop rate information for available for any receiver at this point is rather sketchy.

Pescheck from Rotworld generally provides a good detailed look at the wide receivers and wide receiver metrics. If I remember correctly, he gives drop rates, catch rates, and he breaks downs the routes run by various wide receivers and the outcome of those routes

The import of offensive scheme, play calling, quarterback play, and positional coaching, as we know from watching the 49ers over the last four years, should not be forgotten, nor can we discount the intangibles---the drive and willingness to improve of the individual players.

In 2013, Kevin White was not very impressive. He had 35 catches on 81 targets for 507 yards. That is a catch rate of 43.21%.

In 2014, Kevin White was very impressive. He had 109 receptions on 144 targets for 1,447 yards. His catch rate was 68.99%.

Originally posted by WRATHman44:

I don't like Montgomery at all. He's more of a RB playing WR, and not in a good way. I hate his hands and his route running.

There is a possibility of Funchess still on the board in the 3rd Rd at Niners pick, could be an option for Baalke.