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Patrick Mahomes QB

Originally posted by WRATHman44:
People see what they want to see, or what experience has conditioned them to see. Here's a mixed, athletic kid with a big arm who scrambles, so he must be a Kap clone. Nevermind that he scrambles to pass, runs less, throws more, looks off safeties, drops touch passes in the cover 2 hole, and changes throwing platforms to avoid deflection by pass rushers. There are numerous examples of him going through progressions (Google is your friend), changing plays at the LOS, and manipulating coverage. Look harder.

That can go both ways I see a kid that plays backyard football misses easy plays, doesn't go through progressions (or really have to in that system), throws off his back foot a lot, doesn't have the footwork in general needed to run a WCO, while he does seem to scramble with his eyes down field, he scrambles when it's not needed.

He's got a great arm and their are intangibles that can't be taught be needs work a lot of it for our system. I'm not throwing the 34th pick on him for that.
Originally posted by elguapo:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Originally posted by Jcool:
Originally posted by elguapo:
I see a lot of Collin Kaepernick in this guy. Kind of like cam Newton as well. They have happy feet in the pocket and they do not go through their progressions that well. They have great arms but again always looking to run or move around and throw. This is not a natural passer we do not need him. We cannot deal with another Colin Kaepernick even if he is a little Better of a passer it's still the same s**t different toilet.

They seem like completely different QBs to me. Kap would never try to make the throws Mahomes attempts. Just because they both have strong arms doesn't make them similar QBs.

Exactly....absolutely polar opposite QBs. The feel that Mahomes has both in the pocket and out and for when to throw a laser and when/how to use touch is something only Kap can dream about. No doubt Mahomes must clean up his footwork, but so did Joe, Steve and Jeff when then came to the Niners. It's a learnable thing, but his arm talent and intuitive feel for playing the position is something you're either born with or not.

I don't agree at all. From watching some of his games and all of his highlights he does do a lot of things Kaepernick does. He's very questionable with his progressions. He does have a strong arm he runs around a lot that sounds almost exactly like Collin Kaepernick. Collin Kaepernick made a lot of laser throws and great throws his first two years starting so I think that is wrong when you say he wouldn't attempt the same throws. You will see when he gets into the NFL and starts some games that he looks to run quite a bit, doesn't go through his reads all that well, but has a very strong arm. Very similar to Kaepernick. If we draft him I don't think he will be good at all or even have a year like Collin did in 2012 but I hope I'm wrong.

Do they have similar physical traits? Yes they do: raw, mobile, strong armed QBs but to me that's where it ends. I would describe it this way...Kap was a baseball player who had enough of the right physical traits to play QB. Mahomes played baseball but was born to play QB. That's not a technical assessment of course, it's just my take from someone who played the position many, many, many years ago and who has been watching college/pro football for many years.

I liked the raw tools the Kap had coming out of college and hoped Harbaugh could mold him into an NFL QB, but he just didn't have that natural feel for the position that made it all come together and that was apparent from day 1. His mechanical delivery and slowness to respond to both pressure and what he was seeing in front of him was always going to doom him regardless of how many reps he took. Mahomes really is a different thing altogether. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to succeed of course as that requires a ton of hard work, being in the right situation and being groomed slowly. But he has that "it" factor that gives him a chance to be really special.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
That can go both ways I see a kid that plays backyard football misses easy plays, doesn't go through progressions (or really have to in that system), throws off his back foot a lot, doesn't have the footwork in general needed to run a WCO, while he does seem to scramble with his eyes down field, he scrambles when it's not needed.

He's got a great arm and their are intangibles that can't be taught be needs work a lot of it for our system. I'm not throwing the 34th pick on him for that.

You don't throw 41 TDs & 10 INTs at almost 66% completion playing "backyard football".
[ Edited by Jcool on Feb 17, 2017 at 8:35 AM ]
Originally posted by Jcool:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
That can go both ways I see a kid that plays backyard football misses easy plays, doesn't go through progressions (or really have to in that system), throws off his back foot a lot, doesn't have the footwork in general needed to run a WCO, while he does seem to scramble with his eyes down field, he scrambles when it's not needed.

He's got a great arm and their are intangibles that can't be taught be needs work a lot of it for our system. I'm not throwing the 34th pick on him for that.

You don't throw 41 TDs & 10 INTs at almost 66% completion playing "backyard football".

In an air raid spread sure you do...in fact if you don't then there's a problem lol. He's not gonna be able to do what he does as tech tech in the NFL and what he currently does isn't a fit for Kyle's system. I got no problem drafting him as a developmental guy, but where he's being talking about being drafted at doesn't equal developmental pick.

IMHO not a top 3 rd draft pick...your entitled to your opinion just as well
  • Kolohe
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Originally posted by SunDevilNiner79:
Here is a good description of the Spread variances. Winston comes from the "pro-style" spread, but IMO that name is a total misnomer, a more accurate name is "multiple" spread.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2016/5/6/11606684/the-4-main-schools-of-spread-offense-smashmouth-option-air-raid-pro-style

As you will also see, the main calling card of Air Raid is the use of short passes, typically in 4-Wide sets that eliminates the run game. And the Air Raid is actually a variation of WCO, and it really empowers weak armed QBs. So often you will see weak armed, but accurate, QBs look amazing in an Air Raid. They flop in the NFL because they don't have the arm strength and release speed to hit timing routes and tight windows.

So when assessing an Air Raid QB, you have to throw out a lot of their stats, completion percentage etc out the window because it doesn't tell you anything about a QB in the NFL when they complete a 5 yard dump off pass who runs it 50 yards. I've said this repeatedly about Peterman and many of the same Mahomes haters say Peterman is being smart with the ball lol. You guys are using total double standards.

What sets Mahomes apart from other Air Raid QBs is the type of throws he is making and his arm. Most Air Raid QBs don't have cannon arms (ie Nick Foles).

And I'm willing to bet most NFL scouts/GMs would agree with my assessments. Its why Goff went #1. Him coming from an Air Raid didn't mean much. And ofcourse Goff struggled his first year but just watch him improve quite a bit with a decent HC now.

So you call an article from NFL.com a fluff than proceed to reference an article SB Nation and say this is what Winston runs and then agree that it is a Pro Style offense. lol

So much pride in here that's it's so hard to say "Oh I agree or I was wrong".

Goff went #1 overall due to measureable's and overall Pro potential, he didn't struggle with mechanics like Mahomes did or does. If I'm an NFL team trying to model my offense after the Falcons and Redskins, I'm staying the hell away from Mahomes.
Originally posted by Kolohe:
So you call an article from NFL.com a fluff than proceed to reference an article SB Nation and say this is what Winston runs and then agree that it is a Pro Style offense. lol

So much pride in here that's it's so hard to say "Oh I agree or I was wrong".

Goff went #1 overall due to measureable's and overall Pro potential, he didn't struggle with mechanics like Mahomes did or does. If I'm an NFL team trying to model my offense after the Falcons and Redskins, I'm staying the hell away from Mahomes.

huh? No I said Winston runs a Spread offense which is not a Pro Offense, despite some calling it that. Its more appropriately dubbed a Multiple Spread Offense.

The SB Nation link was the easiest link I could find on short notice that breaks down the types of spreads.

You guys are over emphasizing the impact Air Raid has in assessing a player.

Mahomes will likely be a 1st rounder, and at the latest will be taken in the 2nd. We will know if I'm in wrong in a few months.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
People see what they want to see, or what experience has conditioned them to see. Here's a mixed, athletic kid with a big arm who scrambles, so he must be a Kap clone. Nevermind that he scrambles to pass, runs less, throws more, looks off safeties, drops touch passes in the cover 2 hole, and changes throwing platforms to avoid deflection by pass rushers. There are numerous examples of him going through progressions (Google is your friend), changing plays at the LOS, and manipulating coverage. Look harder.

That can go both ways I see a kid that plays backyard football misses easy plays, doesn't go through progressions (or really have to in that system), throws off his back foot a lot, doesn't have the footwork in general needed to run a WCO, while he does seem to scramble with his eyes down field, he scrambles when it's not needed.

He's got a great arm and their are intangibles that can't be taught be needs work a lot of it for our system. I'm not throwing the 34th pick on him for that.

I'm sure Green Bay is thankful they didn't make that same calculation when they traded their #19 overall pick for Favre in 1992.
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sure Green Bay is thankful they didn't make that same calculation when they traded their #19 overall pick for Favre in 1992.

Yup he's the same exact player as farvre LOL they run an air raid offense in southern miss with Favre?

I could very well say he's the next Jeff Driskel instead of attaching him to one of the best qbs of all-time.

I see things like this and it's a issue...

https://twitter.com/mikemayock/status/831146830641713156

https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/828689604660359168

If you honestly think he's gonna roll out into the NFL and play football the way he has at TTech your gonna be in let down lol.

There's stuff to like about him but there's a ton imo that needs to be fixed/developed and I don't think that's worth a 1st or 2nd rd pick at all.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
People see what they want to see, or what experience has conditioned them to see. Here's a mixed, athletic kid with a big arm who scrambles, so he must be a Kap clone. Nevermind that he scrambles to pass, runs less, throws more, looks off safeties, drops touch passes in the cover 2 hole, and changes throwing platforms to avoid deflection by pass rushers. There are numerous examples of him going through progressions (Google is your friend), changing plays at the LOS, and manipulating coverage. Look harder.

That can go both ways I see a kid that plays backyard football misses easy plays, doesn't go through progressions (or really have to in that system), throws off his back foot a lot, doesn't have the footwork in general needed to run a WCO, while he does seem to scramble with his eyes down field, he scrambles when it's not needed.

He's got a great arm and their are intangibles that can't be taught be needs work a lot of it for our system. I'm not throwing the 34th pick on him for that.

Rodgers was a 1st round rebuild project. If Mahomes is a rare talent, which I believe he is, it is (imo) worth the draft capital and years to develop a generational arm talent with a competitive streak, great work ethic, and tremendous innate feel for the game. I would expect his throwing at the combine and pro day to show the improved (not perfect, just improved) footwork he's been working on, which should indicate that he's a worthwhile project. If he's a top 10 QB in 5 years or a top 5 guy in 10 years, who will care what amount of draft capital was spent on him? I'm of the risk/reward angle on QBs, especially in a rebuild. A solid QB is nice. A special QB is worth the risk of busting.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Do they have similar physical traits? Yes they do: raw, mobile, strong armed QBs but to me that's where it ends. I would describe it this way...Kap was a baseball player who had enough of the right physical traits to play QB. Mahomes played baseball but was born to play QB. That's not a technical assessment of course, it's just my take from someone who played the position many, many, many years ago and who has been watching college/pro football for many years.

I liked the raw tools the Kap had coming out of college and hoped Harbaugh could mold him into an NFL QB, but he just didn't have that natural feel for the position that made it all come together and that was apparent from day 1. His mechanical delivery and slowness to respond to both pressure and what he was seeing in front of him was always going to doom him regardless of how many reps he took. Mahomes really is a different thing altogether. Now, that doesn't mean he's going to succeed of course as that requires a ton of hard work, being in the right situation and being groomed slowly. But he has that "it" factor that gives him a chance to be really special.

This (except I never played). Mahomes is just smooth and cool, imo. He throws great passes with good location when he has a free rusher in his face. He competes on 3rd down. He routinely delivers passes that split defenders, vertically and horizontally. I think there is a lot to work with there, well beyond his physical traits. I am WAY more excited about him as a prospect than I was about Kaepernick, because of his flexibility, poise, and commitment to throw. He's a natural thrower with incredible potential and remarkable off-platform accuracy (like Favre). He could certainly bust, but I don't see another QB in this draft with more tools (physical or not) to be truly special. My $.02.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sure Green Bay is thankful they didn't make that same calculation when they traded their #19 overall pick for Favre in 1992.

Yup he's the same exact player as farvre LOL they run an air raid offense in southern miss with Favre?

I could very well say he's the next Jeff Driskel instead of attaching him to one of the best qbs of all-time.

I see things like this and it's a issue...

https://twitter.com/mikemayock/status/831146830641713156

https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/828689604660359168

If you honestly think he's gonna roll out into the NFL and play football the way he has at TTech your gonna be in let down lol.

There's stuff to like about him but there's a ton imo that needs to be fixed/developed and I don't think that's worth a 1st or 2nd rd pick at all.

Yeah I understand everything your saying but the reality is teams seem to be liking him more and more and the combine is only going to have more teams jumo on the bandwagon, hes going to end up in the 1st, how high..? idk, but Shanahan could trade back and set himself up with future picks while taking Mahomes too..its going to be fun and interesting how high Mahomes raises his stock..i think you need to prepare for the possibility of him being drafted high by the niners bc its seeming more and more like a real possibility and after the combine it will rise..
[ Edited by jersey49er on Feb 17, 2017 at 10:29 AM ]
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sure Green Bay is thankful they didn't make that same calculation when they traded their #19 overall pick for Favre in 1992.

Yup he's the same exact player as farvre LOL they run an air raid offense in southern miss with Favre?

I could very well say he's the next Jeff Driskel instead of attaching him to one of the best qbs of all-time.

I see things like this and it's a issue...

https://twitter.com/mikemayock/status/831146830641713156

https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/828689604660359168

If you honestly think he's gonna roll out into the NFL and play football the way he has at TTech your gonna be in let down lol.

There's stuff to like about him but there's a ton imo that needs to be fixed/developed and I don't think that's worth a 1st or 2nd rd pick at all.

You seem like a smart guy so reducing my point down to saying "they're the exact same player" isn't really necessary...our conversations on this forum aren't a zero-sum game. Clearly the point I was trying to make is, there is some talent that you have to take a chance on if you see they have the right overall tool-set. Throwing in a name like Jeff Driskel is merely a distraction to the conversation.

There's a reason Favre was taken just after the 1st round, and there's a reason Mahomes is considered a late 1st round/early 2nd round pick, as opposed to a guy like Driskel who was never in that discussion. The tool-sets, mentality and natural play making ability (along with their extreme rawness) are very similar with the first two...not that they are the same or that Mahomes will turn into Favre, that's not at all the point.

This is about projection based on all the available information. In that similar scenario, Ron Wolf took a chance on a guy who felt (while most others didn't see much in) could eventually develop into something special. That's my point. Let's talk through that instead of trying to score rhetorical points.
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Rodgers was a 1st round rebuild project. If Mahomes is a rare talent, which I believe he is, it is (imo) worth the draft capital and years to develop a generational arm talent with a competitive streak, great work ethic, and tremendous innate feel for the game. I would expect his throwing at the combine and pro day to show the improved (not perfect, just improved) footwork he's been working on, which should indicate that he's a worthwhile project. If he's a top 10 QB in 5 years or a top 5 guy in 10 years, who will care what amount of draft capital was spent on him? I'm of the risk/reward angle on QBs, especially in a rebuild. A solid QB is nice. A special QB is worth the risk of busting.


This (except I never played). Mahomes is just smooth and cool, imo. He throws great passes with good location when he has a free rusher in his face. He competes on 3rd down. He routinely delivers passes that split defenders, vertically and horizontally. I think there is a lot to work with there, well beyond his physical traits. I am WAY more excited about him as a prospect than I was about Kaepernick, because of his flexibility, poise, and commitment to throw. He's a natural thrower with incredible potential and remarkable off-platform accuracy (like Favre). He could certainly bust, but I don't see another QB in this draft with more tools (physical or not) to be truly special. My $.02.

I'm sorry you have no idea Rogers was a 1st rd project...he could have very well just came in and started day 1 there's no proof to say he couldn't.

We aren't asking him to play some chip Kelly offense we're asking him to take balls from under center, 3,5,7 drop steps all based around timing, we're asking him to remember 15 word long plays( which took matt Ryan a yr to figure out), we're asking him to actually stay in the pocket,read a defense, and go through progressions etc...

Most of that doesn't equate with his currenr film to me...he's gonna be a project with upside no doubt, but I'm not drafting him in the 1st three rds because of it.

We don't have to agree on this is what it is...
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
You seem like a smart guy so reducing my point down to saying "they're the exact same player" isn't really necessary...our conversations on this forum aren't a zero-sum game. Clearly the point I was trying to make is, there is some talent that you have to take a chance on if you see they have the right overall tool-set. Throwing in a name like Jeff Driskel is merely a distraction to the conversation.

There's a reason Favre was taken just after the 1st round, and there's a reason Mahomes is considered a late 1st round/early 2nd round pick, as opposed to a guy like Driskel who was never in that discussion. The tool-sets, mentality and natural play making ability (along with their extreme rawness) are very similar with the first two...not that they are the same or that Mahomes will turn into Favre, that's not at all the point.

This is about projection based on all the available information. In that similar scenario, Ron Wolf took a chance on a guy who felt (while most others didn't see much in) could eventually develop into something special. That's my point. Let's talk through that instead of trying to score rhetorical points.

How is throwing Driskel's name a distraction? Both are big armed athletic qbs that thrived in a one read spread offense. I mean is you can throw out Brett I can throw out Driskel just the same.

I don't see the footwork or the decision making that makes me feel comfortable on spending a top 50 pick on him. I'm sure someone will I hope it's not us.
Originally posted by jersey49er:
Yeah I understand everything your saying but the reality is teams seem to be liking him more and more and the combine is only going to have more teams jumo on the bandwagon, hes going to end up in the 1st, how high..? idk, but Shanahan could trade back and set himself up with future picks while taking Mahomes too..its going to be fun and interesting how high Mahomes raises his stock..i think you need to prepare for the possibility of him being drafted high by the niners bc its seeming more and more like a real possibility and after the combine it will rise..

I just don't agree that's all...if Kyle drafts him I'll support it.

His current resume and flim doesn't show me much as far a running a WCO goes. IMO it would be a total project and rebuild to make it work fully for his offense, I just don't think that worth a top 50 pick.

I could be totally wrong which is fine, just don't see it.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
You seem like a smart guy so reducing my point down to saying "they're the exact same player" isn't really necessary...our conversations on this forum aren't a zero-sum game. Clearly the point I was trying to make is, there is some talent that you have to take a chance on if you see they have the right overall tool-set. Throwing in a name like Jeff Driskel is merely a distraction to the conversation.

There's a reason Favre was taken just after the 1st round, and there's a reason Mahomes is considered a late 1st round/early 2nd round pick, as opposed to a guy like Driskel who was never in that discussion. The tool-sets, mentality and natural play making ability (along with their extreme rawness) are very similar with the first two...not that they are the same or that Mahomes will turn into Favre, that's not at all the point.

This is about projection based on all the available information. In that similar scenario, Ron Wolf took a chance on a guy who felt (while most others didn't see much in) could eventually develop into something special. That's my point. Let's talk through that instead of trying to score rhetorical points.

How is throwing Driskel's name a distraction? Both are big armed athletic qbs that thrived in a one read spread offense. I mean is you can throw out Brett I can throw out Driskel just the same.

I don't see the footwork or the decision making that makes me feel comfortable on spending a top 50 pick on him. I'm sure someone will I hope it's not us.

Fair enough.
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