Since parting with former personnel exec Brian Xanders after the 2012 Draft (Xanders, now with the Rams, was an unsung hero of the construction of this team and someone who, frankly, should've got a ring). when Elway essentially became the lord of all things football in Denver, here is a snapshot of their first three picks in each of the last five drafts:
2013
DT Sylvester Williams -- regular contributor signed with Titans in 2017
RB Montee Ball -- out of football since 2014 with 3 starts
DB Kayvon Webster -- 2 starts for Denver, now with Rams
2014
CB Bradley Roby -- part of great secondary. Excellent player, picked up fifth-year option
WR Cody Latimer -- 2 career TDs, oft-injured
OL Michael Schofield -- switched between T and G, left for Chargers as free agent
2015
LB Shane Ray -- 12 career starts, pass rush prowess in flashes but off field concerns
OL Ty Sambrailo -- Struggled mightily, now with Atlanta
TE Jeff Heuerman -- 15 catches for 215 yards and 1 TD in his career
2016
QB Paxton Lynch -- Seems totally overwhelmed in very limited appearances
DT Adam Gotsis -- Contributing to their rotation up front
S Justin Simmons -- Thriving as a regular starter this season
2017
T Garett Bolles -- Tough rookie year as part of a very poor offensive line
DE DeMarcus Walker -- Appeared in 6 games with 2 tackles
WR Carlos Henderson -- On IR
That's not going to get it done. Not close. All of the money and picks injected into the QB position and offensive line have to produce more than that. Roby the only true blue chip player in the bunch. Couple that with far less impactful free agent signings that what occurred early in this regime, and you've got problems.
I have a very difficult time thinking Elway isn't exploring wholesale changes in the coaching staff and, with Denver on course for a top-five pick, I suspect they end up selecting another quarterback in the spring as well. There are major, macro-level questions about the future of the franchise, with owner Pat Bowlen in declining health and no succession plan that designates one of his seven heirs as the next in line to run the team, with the family having to sort that out though a trust to try to keep the team in the family.
The front office is now under scrutiny as well, this looks every bit like a team at the crossroads, one now aging on the defensive side (which was long their strength) yet still with nine players set to count $7.5M or more against the cap in 2018.
They seem assured of finishing last in the AFC West, and while they happen to meet a team in just as much turmoil this week, in the Dolphins, that won't often be the case. It's certainly not a prime locale aging free agents like Manning and Ware would consider anymore. This smells like a 4-12 team to me, and the worst season in Denver's NFL history, and it's going to take quite a personnel hot streak to dig out of it anytime soon.