MadDog49er 2018 NFL Draft Review

Originally posted by 21SandersMoss84:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

Originally posted by 21SandersMoss84:

I thought Christian Kirk would've made more sense than Pettis. But it's Shanny's system, not mine. I'll defer to the Wunderkind.

I think there were several WRS in the 2nd that had similar ratings. Dont hate Pettis but hated giving up the 3rd rd pick to move up to get him. To me, that was the biggest downer of the draft for me.

It shows just how much Shanny was lusting after Pettis, to secure the pick with such a bold trade. Hopefully the fans will get to find out why he was sought after by the HC.

Warming to Pettis, although I preferred Miller or Gallup.
Little info on Pettis that may be redundant:
-lowest drop rate in PAC-12 (1.85)
-1 drop in 54 catchable ball
-#1 de ep-ball catch rate in PAC-12
-all-time punt return for TD in college football
-versatile enough to play any WR spot.

Originally posted by JamesGatz83:

We would've been in bad shape at RT with your draft. McGlinchey at 9 isn't really a reach when you consider the Raiders were almost guaranteed to grab him at 10.

I saw somebody online mention how the Niners drafted the top Tackle in the draft at #9. Considering how they look/hope to be moving up in the NFL standings hierarchy, there will never be a top Tackle available after the first 10 picks in any draft. They took their guy here because they won't have the opportunity in the future without having to trade up to get him.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Another fun year of player evaluation. The draft has wrapped, and teams are celebrating their haul of new players. We will learn much about the new Niners over the days and weeks and years to come. So, how did the team perform when on the clock? Here is my yearly post-draft analysis Couple notes: I do not count the value of current NFL players acquired with draft selections, nor traded for draft choices. In that vein, Jimmy G and Trent Brown are not value added or lost. Nor do I attach value to UDFA added to the roster. I simply analyze the picks being chose while the team is on the clock.

Pick 9- Mike McGlinchey, RT, Notre Dame- The Niners went into the draft clearly shooting for need, and the need to was replace Trent Brown at RT. Brown had outperformed his draft selection, but was out of shape, and the Niners clearly want more athleticism on the line. McGlinchey checks that box. A tall, strong, intelligent, athletic player, with a good head on his shoulders, McGlinchey checks off many of the boxes you want in a RT. There is a LOT to like. Here is my issue with the pick- The Niners were drafting in the 9th slot. Three QBs were selected above them. That means the team is picking the 6th best non-QB in this draft....and McGlinchey is not close to being the 6th best non-QB in this draft. The player selected above him, Roquan Smith, was worthy of a top 8 selection. That was a good use of draft capital. The Niners selected someone who is a better choice somewhere in the mid-late first round at best. In that the team fielded numerous phone calls about moving down and passed, that is a shame. It looks like the team would like to groom McGlinchey to move to LT as Staley's replacement. While McGlinchey was a solid run blocker, he struggled against speedy and athletic edge rushers in numerous games last year, some at critical moments. To me, he is surely not a LT. He is a good RT. The team has a huge hole to fill with a defensive leader, a captain, a signal caller, the heart and soul of the defense for the next _________ years. We didn't have that person before the draft, and we don't have it after the draft. If the team is not moving up to ensure Roquan Smith, they might as well drop down to select Leighton Vander Esch, who they could have picked up, with extra draft assets. The Niners fell into the classic draft trap. Never take need over talent. Talent and need must intersect to create value.
Draft grade for McGlinchey: C-

Pick 44- Dante Pettis- WR, Washington- The McGlinchey pick was only a warm-up for possibly the most boneheaded pick in the NFL draft (minus the Browns picking Antonio Callaway and the Pats selecting one of the worst college QBs in the draft). Catch this- the Niners traded UP 15 slots to select WR12 on my board. Pettis was the 4th WR selected in this draft. The team believes he is better than Anthony Miller, better than James Washington, Michael Gallup, DJ Chark, and on and on. Pettis had 63 catches in 13 games (less than 5 catches per game), and only one game over 100 yards in 2017 (105 yards against Oregon State). The line for his last 6 games: 1 catch, 12 yards; 4 catches, 87 yards; 5 catches, 41 yards; 6 catches , 94 yards; 2 catches, 15 yards; 1 catch, 40 yards. A whopping 1.5 catch average in his last 2 college games. Impressive!!! I get that Pettis is a really good return guy. Is he worth the 44th pick, sacrificing a third rounder in the process? That is insanity. This pick is insanity. So, while we watch Anthony Miller churn 7 catch, 100 yard games, let's sit back and enjoy a skinny 4th or 5th WR on our roster standing on the sidelines. This pick is going to haunt us for a LONG, LONG time.
Draft grade for Pettis- F- (If there was a lower grade, I would assign it)

Pick 70- Fred Warner, Will backer, BYU- Back to sanity. Warner is a nice value player in this slot. Was not at the top of my board at 70, but a really solid Will backer. He is athletic, mature, smooth on the field, Can cover a lot of ground. I think he looks better on the field than he plays (his productivity was inconsistent, especially in his final 5 college games), but he adds an ability that we need in a rangy 3 down backer who has very good coverage skills. I do not think he can play the Mike position effectively. He is built like a Will, and needs room to run. I believe the team wants him to play the Mike for some time until Foster returns (if he does return). He was a team captain, which is a big plus for him. No off the field issues- bigger plus.
Draft grade for Warner- B

Pick 95- Tarvarius Moore, CB, Southern Mississippi- Moore was a draft climber after a good 2017 season and exceptional offseason, where he had the chance to show off his athleticism. He played free safety at Southern Miss, and had a productive year, but it seems the team wants to move him to corner. JUCO transfer and one year starter, so he is still pretty raw. Moves really well on the field. Moore is going to be a good special teamer in Year One. I don't think he will play much in 2018, but has the chance to develop and get more time in 2019. This is a developmental pick, with some upside. This is more of a boom or bust pick. I am not sold on it being great value, even though this is about the spot where I believe he would be selected, based on his athleticism.
Draft grade for Moore- C+

Pick 128- Kentavius Street- DT/DE, NC State- Street was a compact, powerful, thick-legged DE for NC State. Ultra-strong lower body, and hard worker on and off the field. Ruptured his ACL in a private workout, so he will be a redshirt this year. 38 tackles, 6.5 sacks in 2017. Really looked good in the Shrine practices this offseason, and was rising up draft boards. Is a tweener as a DE and DT. Teams will have to decide if they want him to be a strongside DE or 3 technique DT. To me, he is a rotational guy that doesn't have great burst, but someone who can hold an edge. More of a line of scrimmage player, so there is little dynamic to his game. This pick cam way too early. I thought he had a 50-50 shot of being drafted due to the ACL. The team must have some plan in mind for him, but he won't be able to do anything on the field, or with the scour team this season. The value is about right if he is healthy. With the redshirt year, this is NOT good value. Will Richardson and Josh Sweat were the two next players selected, and both have superior upside. So, if you are going to take a risk, take a risk.
Draft grade for Street- D

Pick 142- DJ Reed- Slot Corner, Kansas State- Reed was a very good college corner for Kansas State, even though he is barely 5'9". He is loose-hipped, has smooth change of direction skills, is fiesty, and will compete on each play. Excellent special teamer with superb kick return skills. It is clear that Lynch and Shanahan are prioritizing special teams in this draft. Athletic with a SPARQ percentile at 63 percent. Probably will get some field time as a dime corner in 2017, and maybe some nickel snaps as well. Solid, dependable, reliable. For a fifth round pick, he adds value to a team. Were there better pure corners out there? Sure. But, the team will get some use of Reed. Is he a starter? No.
Draft grade for Reed- B-

Pick 184- Marcell Harris, Strong safety, Florida- Did not play last year due to a torn Achilles last summer. I believe I counted 9 career starts, but a fair amount of playing time. Finished the 2016 season well with over 70 tackles. Was not able to work out this offseason, so we have no idea what his athletic profile is at right now. My guess is that the team will have to discover what they have sometime over the summer. Another head-scratcher to me. I simply don't have much to add. Nobody does. I believe he will be a special teamer who the team tries to get on the practice squad and develop. Microscopic chance of making the 53 for 2018.
Draft grade for Harris- D

Pick 223- Jullian Taylor, DT, Temple- One of the more intriguing guys in the NFL draft because he has very little playing experience, and limited productivity, Was a part time starter at Temple last year at DT. Collected a TON of frequent flier miles this offseason because everyone want to see this dude face to face. Two reasons why he was drafted- His final game against UCF was incredible- 10 tackles, 4.5 for loss; and his offseason workout- 4.94 at 6'4", 294 is impressive, as was his 10 yard split of 1.63. Long-armed, fluid body movements on the field. The guy is an athlete. This pick is a boom or bust pick. Zero chance he makes the 53 in 2018. Headed to the practice squad to see if he can develop over time.
Draft grade for Taylor- C

Pick 240- Richie James- Slot WR- Middle Tennessee St- Ultra fun-too-watch little spark plug slot receiver, James was like a video game machine the past two seasons. Giant productivity. This season was cut short by two injuries, but he is the type of slot receiver that will be a blast to watch in preseason games. Short at 5'10", but fiesty. Short area quickness is exceptional. In 2016, 7 of his last 8 games had 100+ yards receiving. So, he knows how to get it done. Will compete for a backup slot role in 2018.
Draft grade for James- A

In the end, I cannot be blind to my allegiance to the Niners. I have to be honest. I don't have any regrets over my analysis, nor do I revisit the players after the draft and tack on added value because they are wearing Niners' gear.

If you handed me an envelop before the draft with a team in the 7-12 draft slot, and gave me these three players for four top 74 picks: McGlinchey, Pettis, Warner, I would say that draft was a total dumpster fire. So, I am saying today, this was a total dumpster fire. In the end, the Niners will pick up this in the draft: A starting RT, a possible starting Will backer, and a bunch of guys standing on the sidelines. To me, that is not good value with the draft capital we had entering the draft. None of these guys are going to be team captains who will be the face of the defense, none are going to rush the passer. We needed both of these...... and still need both of these.

Let me compare with a team that got this draft right. The Cowboys, picking 10 slots lower, picked up a starting monster Mike backer, (in LVE) a starting LG that could be a RT (Connor Williams), and a starting WR.(Michael Gallup). All were picked lower than the Niners, all are better than the Niners' players selected, and with only three picks, not four which the Niners started the weekend with, and squandered in the Pettis trade. The Bears got Roquan Smith and Anthony Miller. I would trade that in heartbeat for the four picks that we originally had, and three selections we made.

Overall draft grade for the Niners in 2018: D-. The Pettis trade and selection was the breaker. Without this disaster, the grade for me would probably be a C+/ B-. I honestly hope I am horrifically off on my analysis and all the Niners pick become All Pros and future Hall of Famers. I just got to call it like it is for today

My Draft-
9- Leighton Vander Esch- Boise State- Starting Mike backer, defensive team captain. The team should have accepted one of these offers to drop down (I am guessing one team was the Cardinals at 15) and made the selection there. My draft position, stated pre-draft, is to trade down if Roquan goes off the board before them, The Niners could have traded, gained assets, and still picked up a stud player, like LVE. Drafted at 19 by the Cowboys.

44- Connor Williams- Texas- Starting left guard. Connor is everything the Niners want in an interior lineman: strong, but agile, Light on his feet, Williams was a bargain at 44. Of course, the Niners did trade up from 59. losing pick 74 in the process. Drafted at 50 by the Cowboys.

70- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo- Oklahoma- Starting Sam backer/rotational pass rusher- The Niners need a pass rusher and Obo is best pushing forward. He was selected later than expected, so this pick did not have great draft value, but he will make up for it with a solid NFL career. Measurables very similar to Yannick Ngakoue.

95- Harrison Phillips- Stanford- Nose tackle- Strong as a house (42 reps at 225), and ultra productive at Stanford(100 tackles), Phillips would have been the eventual replacement at NT for Earl Mitchell. Picked in the next selection, 96, by the Bills. Crazy late third round value.

128- Tyler Conklin- Central Michigan- Tight End- Strong productivity at Central Michigan, Conklin had a solid Senior Bowl week, and an outstanding Pro Day. SPARQ score of 72 percent shows excellent athleticism. One of the better blocking TEs. Selected by the Rams with the Vikings with the 157th pick.

142- John Kelly- Tennessee- RB- Kelly is a good-sized (5'10", 216) running back that breaks tackles and falls forward. Caught 37 balls in 2017, so he can be used on all three downs. Survived the year behind an dreadful OL, but still was productive. Very good rotational back. Selected by the Rams at 176.

184- Cedrick Wilson- Boise State- WR- 1,000+ yard receiver the previous two years, Wilson is still developing as a WR, and shows big play ability. Had a solid Senior Bowl week, and has family roots with the 49ers, as his dad played with them. Selected by the Cowboys at pick 208. Cowboys looking at my board...we share three picks.

228- Akrum Wadley- Iowa- Running Back- Wadley is strictly a value pick at this point. Just like Kelly, Wadley may not be the best athlete, but teams get every ounce of energy from him. Can use him in a myriad of formations out of the backfield, Wadley is a tough football player. Was not selected in the 256 picks.

240- Trey Quinn- SMU- Slot receiver- The Niners picked James, which was solid. I went for the man who caught 114 balls for 1236 yards and 13 TDs. Quick, with great hands, Quinn is a guy seemingly always open on the football field. Was selected as Mr. Irrelevant.

Final Note: One main rule I have for myself to stay honest: I have to make the pick while the team is on the clock. I post the picks on the running draft thread. This way, I can't cherry pick after the draft to maximize draft value. In some cases, my selections were right before another team's pick (Phillips at 95; he went 96). In other cases, I was way off where my player was selected (Obo at 70; he went 160).

You may agree or disagree with my analysis. Let's revisit this 5 years down the road over a cold one, and get a good laugh either way.

Thanks for a great draft year to all. Cheers,- MD

I personally think it's absolutely stupid and crazy to grade a draft it won't truly know until another 3 years . For you to say it was a total dumpster Fire is a little misguided and stupid because you don't know how good these players will be . All I know I trust lynch and shannahan a lot more than I do you . Plus Kyle shannahan looks for certain traits in wr's to play in his offense . You have to run routes good and Dante Pettis is a great route runner and he is very quick and he is also a great punt returner . Shannahan is gonna move Dante Pettis all over the field and scheme to get him open and Jimmy G will get him the ball . I think Dante Pettis was a great pick and I look forward for that pick to make you look like a stupid fool .

Originally posted by StOnEy333:

Originally posted by JamesGatz83:
We would've been in bad shape at RT with your draft. McGlinchey at 9 isn't really a reach when you consider the Raiders were almost guaranteed to grab him at 10.

I saw somebody online mention how the Niners drafted the top Tackle in the draft at #9. Considering how they look/hope to be moving up in the NFL standings hierarchy, there will never be a top Tackle available after the first 10 picks in any draft. They took their guy here because they won't have the opportunity in the future without having to trade up to get him.

Yep. Not everyone thinks McGlinchey was a reach at 9. For the Niners it came down to fit and economics. Brown simply was not a good fit for the Niners zone blocking system and was going to cost a LOT of money next year. Getting a guy like McGlinchey on a rookie contract for the next 5 years and freeing up money for other players (like Buckner) made all the sense in the world.

As far as the Pettis trade to move up to #44 we gave up more value ( equal to 5th round pick ) then the Titans did to move to up to #41.
This is an area they need to improve on if you want to target a player fine but you can't be overpaying for a spots and expect to be successful.
There were teams that drafted behind us that worked the board perfectly in my opinion Green Bay started at #14 traded back then up and ended up with 2 very good corners Alexander, Jackson and the saints first round pick next year which Could be a very good edge rusher/tackle draft.
I hope they all work out time will tell it will be interesting following Landry's career that's who i wanted there but obviously they didn't.

Originally posted by Tylerawiseguy:
I personally think it's absolutely stupid and crazy to grade a draft it won't truly know until another 3 years . For you to say it was a total dumpster Fire is a little misguided and stupid because you don't know how good these players will be . All I know I trust lynch and shannahan a lot more than I do you . Plus Kyle shannahan looks for certain traits in wr's to play in his offense . You have to run routes good and Dante Pettis is a great route runner and he is very quick and he is also a great punt returner . Shannahan is gonna move Dante Pettis all over the field and scheme to get him open and Jimmy G will get him the ball . I think Dante Pettis was a great pick and I look forward for that pick to make you look like a stupid fool .

You need to chill. I dont agree with MD's overall assessment of the draft but he is anything but stupid or a fool.

Great analysis, told you guys the Pettis trade up was a huge gaffe.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

NFL.com's grade of Niners draft.......A

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap3000000930270/Final-2018-draft-grades-NFC-West

Amazing how evaluations can be so different. The truth often lies somewhere in the middle. We shall see.

I'm seeing them giving the 9ers a "B" but that's a pretty deceptive "B" as based on the zany Lake Woebegone scale they're using only two teams in the NFL got a lower grade than that.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000930225/article/2018-nfl-draft-final-quicksnap-grades-for-all-32-teams

Thanks for the write-up, MD! You confirmed a lot of my fears sadly. Maybe we all had our hopes up too high, and obviously this board valued a lot of guys way higher than did the collective of NFL GMs, but wow that draft felt underwhelming. The best I can say is it feels like Lynch/KS always have a vision and a plan and they know what kind of players they like. They also seemed to target ultra-high-character guys--maybe shell-shocked over the Reuben situation.

My re-draft (trying to be honest like MD's, ignoring hindsight):
9 Tremaine Edmunds LB Va Tech
44 Connor Williams OL Texas (50)
70 Obo Okoronkwo OLB Oklahoma (160)
95 Josh Sweat OLB FSU (130)
128 Duke Ejofor DE Wake Forest (177)
142 Natrell Jamerson FS Wisconsin (164)
184 DeShon Elliot SS Texas (190)
223 Javon Wims WR Georgia (224)
240 Tony Brown CB Alabama (UDFA)

Time will tell. I'm an armchair GM, with nowhere near MD's knowledge and insight, let alone a room of NFL scouts. One thing's for sure, I'll be rooting for these new '9ers! The two picks I really dig are Tarvarius Moore as a project CB and Richie James in the 7th.

Originally posted by TD49ers:

It is clear that you spend a lot of time and effort in reviewing and evaluating draft picks and players and that is commendable, you are very knowledgeable but no one has a crystal ball. In my opinion, grading a draft on Sunday is irrelevant. You and everyone else has no idea how these picks are going to evolve. This could the best drat ever, it could be the worst or something in between. No one really knows for at least 2-3 years. You have no idea what motivates players and why a first overall pick can be a bust and 7th round pick turns into a pro bowler. There are scheme fits, injuries, motivational reasons and talents ceiling that are unknown, so any evaluation is a joke.

The comments around or first pick are blind. Brown was on over weight, under motivated, injury plagued player who did not fit our scheme and could not run block in a zone scheme and to boot was looking for a long term contract. You can argue McGlinchey all day long and whether he under performed in pass protection but he was drafted for the run game. If he turns into a 15 yr average pro we should be happy. Whether he projects to LT in 2 years falls under my earlier comment,,,,,you don't know what motivated him and what the future brings. He has the physical tools and sounds like a leader.....seems like a good start.

The comments around value especially on day 3 is stupid. You have no idea who is on everyone's draft board. The only what to evaluate a reach and value would be to have knowledge of everyone board so therefore a reach/value is based on what......your mock draft, mike mayock, what Mel Kiper thinks.

I don't disagree with the issue of taking injured players especially on a team that is still in need of starting talent. The comparison to Baalke is short sighted. Again, maybe those players were not good to begin with. You can sit a QB for 2-3 years but not any other position?

The draft is mostly a crap shoot. Teams that are successful in the draft, pick players that fit their scheme and have good character. If look at a team like NE, they seem to turn water into wine. Is it because they are good at drafting players that fit their team philosophy and have the coaches to turn potential into reality. Not because of Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock or forum popularity.

Not sure where you saw MD claiming to have a crystal ball, nor claiming that his post-draft thoughts will reflect reality multiple years out — instead he goes out of his way to make clear this isn't the case. How are we to trust you that he is "blind" and "stupid" when by your own claims we definitely shouldn't be listening to you and your opinions?

If grading a draft on Sunday is "irrelevant" just skip the thread.

Originally posted by PopeyeJonesing:

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
NFL.com's grade of Niners draft.......A

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap3000000930270/Final-2018-draft-grades-NFC-West

Amazing how evaluations can be so different. The truth often lies somewhere in the middle. We shall see.

I'm seeing them giving the 9ers a "B" but that's a pretty deceptive "B" as based on the zany Lake Woebegone scale they're using only two teams in the NFL got a lower grade than that.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000930225/article/2018-nfl-draft-final-quicksnap-grades-for-all-32-teams

i guess you didnt click on the link I gave which shows an A grade

Agree with all but the Reed grade that got an A for me I think he is gonna be considered a steal of this draft. But everything else is spot on how I felt about the draft. I can honestly say I just got so frustrated I had to turn off the draft and dive in to a glass of crown.

Originally posted by GMniner805:
Great analysis, told you guys the Pettis trade up was a huge gaffe.

How can do you come to the conclusion that this pick is gaffe. He has even stepped on the field yet. He has as good of chance as any other of the top wide receivers especially with a good QB and a quality OC. Why would any or the other wide receivers have a better chance to succeed.

Originally posted by Ninerjohn:

i guess you didnt click on the link I gave which shows an A grade

I did but it didn't work for me so I just went to the grades they had up on the front page, where the 9ers got what looked to be a very inflated "B" (inflated because that "B" is tied for the third worst grade they gave out).

I'm guessing they have multiple grades out b/c this is all for fun and not that consistent or serious.

Way too early to grade until they've played a couple of years. Even, the great MadDog must be patient.