I have read through all 27 pages of this thread today. Very good debate and discussion.
Here are my thoughts:
1. At this point, there are only TWO elite players in this draft in the top tier: Bosa and QW. It is them and everyone else and the next tier of players are FAR BELOW these two guys. FAR BELOW. If we do not get that trade down offer for whatever reason for QW, I'm taking QW and look to upgrade the edge rush with our 2nd round pick and trade up into the 20s and get the best edge rusher that falls. If this is as deep an edge class as everyone says, one of them should be available in the late 1st or early 2nd.
2. QW could go #1. The more people watch his tape the more people are salivating over him. If he impresses in these last two games he has to be in the conversation at #1. He might be better than Bosa as a talent and if so, also fits Arizona's gaping hole need at DT. Bosa fits the 49ers' needs like QW fits the Cardinals' needs: like a glove. The Cards will prob not want to show their hand if they prefer QW over Bosa.
3. BPA vs BPA and need. The problem is there are two elite players in this draft and far and away above everyone else. If we are at 2 we take one of those two (obv want Bosa) if we cannot trade down. I ain't reaching for positional value. Landry at 9 last year was clearly shown to be not even close to BPA as he went in the 2nd round.
You go BPA at position of need when the talent level of the player options are comparable...ie on the same tier. So last year, if Shanalynch believed McGlinchey and D. James were on the same tier as each other and comparable in talent, you go BPA at the position of need. Or if there there are three players at your pick that are comparable in terms of BPA and an argument can be made for any of the three as BPA, then you take BPA at your biggest position of need.
HOWEVER, if you have two players at the top of the draft...
Bosa
Q Williams
followed by...
The rest...
I'm not taking BPA at position of need if that player is part of "the rest" and I have to pass on one of the two elite level players on a tier far above "the rest."
I'm taking BPA. Even if it's Qunnen Williams and yes, yet another interior defensive lineman. (F*** I wanted Bosa and that #1 pick)
4. Jonah Williams. The problem is at this point he is not even a top 5 pick yet alone someone to take over Quinnen freaking Williams. Eff that. In a trade down hell yes. Even in a trade down to 3 I would be fine with J. Williams. Why? Because we didn't just pass up QW and one of the two elite players in this draft class for no compensation to pick JW since we traded down and acquired extra picks. Jonah Williams is simply not worth the #2 overall selection. If the Jets overtake us and we are picking #3, I'm happy to have that conversation about making JW the selection if no other EDGE shows they warrant being picked at #3. At this point though, I'd rather take one of the CBs (Murphy/Greedy) over JW due to BPA and that I think these corners are elite and JW has yet to prove he is elite. We certainly could use a shut down CB. This is assuming no EDGE is worthy of a top 3-5 selection. If we are at #3 and Allen or another EDGE shows he is on the same tier as the two CBs and JW (if he even shows he is in this tier), then of course we take the EDGE.
5. I REALLY like that Ferguson guy at edge rusher. Where is he projected to go? I'd rather get QW and Ferguson with our first two picks than reach for Allen/Burns/Polite at #2 and draft whoever in the 2nd round. At this point at #2 there IS NO EDGE that is worth taking at that spot. Hopefully Allen shows he is a top 5 pick but he is clearly far below QW and Bosa.
6. Quinnen Williams is an absolute monster. Of course I'd prefer to trade down, but I will never complain about drafting a monster that can be a HOF type player and I certainly don't want to be taking J. Williams or an inferior player at #2 that is not even close to the talent of QW. If other teams want to dare us to take QW and won't trade up with us? Fine I'm taking QW.
7. The quandary that we are in at #2 and Bosa being gone is almost why I won't be as upset if we are drafting #3 and the Jets surpass us. Brings all the next tier players into play. I don't want to live with passing on a guy like QW at #2 for a far lesser talent. So at #3 Jonah Williams is possibly a good option, Allen, B. Murphy, or Greedy.
8. The fans who wanted us to win that Seattle game and were happy we won are fools in my humble opinion. I hope they bask in the glow of that meaningless Seattle win and win streak ended while our 2019 team (which is what we should all be caring about...at least those fans that CARE ABOUT SUPER BOWLS which is all I give a damn about) is deprived of a chance at the best and most NFL ready EDGE player in the draft and worthy of the top selection where talent meets need PERFECTLY. Those fans can kiss my you know what and are being obtuse and unintelligent. Bosa at #1 was a no brainer pick at our biggest need.
Let's hope AZ thinks QW is every bit as good as Bosa and takes him. Or even better, that AZ somehow beats Seattle this weekend.
[ Edited by Ezekiel38 on Dec 29, 2018 at 2:55 PM ]