Not sold on 49ers picking a WR with 13th Pick

Originally posted by krizay:
Sent this to NC a week or so ago. Since its on topic here.

https://medium.com/the-intermission/myth-or-reality-kyle-shanahan-and-the-use-of-the-x-receiver-5e42acb642a0

That's good article. There's also an interview with Kyle where Maiocco asks him if he needs or believes in a "#1 WR" and he answers no. Instead, he explains that the #1 WR is the guy running the route concept that's designed to beat what the defense is playing.

Kyle ultimately wants playmakers at every position on the field, even if that means he doesn't have one bonafide workhorse. That way he can be unpredictable with every position on his offense and take advantage of mismatches whenever he sees an opportunity.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by krizay:
Sent this to NC a week or so ago. Since its on topic here.

https://medium.com/the-intermission/myth-or-reality-kyle-shanahan-and-the-use-of-the-x-receiver-5e42acb642a0

That's good article. There's also an interview with Kyle where Maiocco asks him if he needs or believes in a "#1 WR" and he answers no. Instead, he explains that the #1 WR is the guy running the route concept that's designed what the defense is playing.

Kyle ultimately wants playmakers at every position on the field, even if that means he doesn't have one bonafide workhorse. That way he can be unpredictable with every position on his offense and take advantage of mismatches whenever he sees an opportunity.

We needed a playmaker bad enough that we traded a 3rd rounder last year to get one in a veteran like Sanders that could play and contribute right away. And now he is gone. And we have not replaced him.

I think one of the top three WRs in this class will be able to contribute more quickly and be better overall players than the next tier below them. If Shanalynch disagree and like one in the second tier, by all means try and get that one. But they sure as hell better land him without a team in front of them taking that targeted 2nd tier WR. Or we are left picking from the bargain aisle.

The benefit of taking a WR at 13 is that we guarantee ourselves right off the bat the WR we want (if he is still there). If we wait then we risk losing the 2nd tier WR if another team takes them first. But I just want good players that pan out...esp at 13, whether it be a WR or any other position.

Exactly. In a normal year, a rookie WR will be lucky to get 500 yards and 5 TDs no matter how good he is. In a year with no training camp, and maybe even a shortened season, their contribution will be minimal. I bet every GM is considering the covid impact right now on their draft decisions. I wouldn't be surprised if stud WRs free fall. And the same goes for all the top QB. If a GM is going to take a Burrows or Tua, its not to have them start right away. Not possible with no training camp. Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were good in their rookie years, but if you deprived them of training camp and the opportunity to really study their respective playbooks, they would not be throwing 22 and 20 TDs respectively. This is the year that QB competitions are going to be one sided in favour of the incumbent QB who has a couple of seasons under the current coach. IMHO, no rookie QB will start until maybe midway thru the season.

Originally posted by scooterhd:
thank you. even under normal circumstances rookie WRs are not that impactful. No 1000 yard rookie receivers in the last 5 years. Meanwhile, a guy like Ruiz is taking ever snap next year, blocking on every run and giving Jimmy time on every throw.

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
We needed a playmaker bad enough that we traded a 3rd rounder last year to get one in a veteran like Sanders that could play and contribute right away. And now he is gone. And we have not replaced him.

I think one of the top three WRs in this class will be able to contribute more quickly and be better overall players than the next tier below them. If Shanalynch disagree and like one in the second tier, by all means try and get that one. But they sure as hell better land him without a team in front of them taking that targeted 2nd tier WR. Or we are left picking from the bargain aisle.

The benefit of taking a WR at 13 is that we guarantee ourselves right off the bat the WR we want (if he is still there). If we wait then we risk losing the 2nd tier WR if another team takes them first. But I just want good players that pan out...esp at 13, whether it be a WR or any other position.

The problem is there is no WR in the draft, no matter whether they are a Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs that can come in and contribute right away. Sanders came in and contributed right away because he is a NFL veteran. Every single rookie WR will not have the benefit of training camp due to Covid. How the heck will they learn the playbook? if covid had happened 1 month earlier, I am pretty sure ShanaLynch would have match the Saints and given Sanders what he wanted, if for no other reason then to have a #1 WR who already knows the system.

Yeah, unfortunately its the new reality. GMs will be picking based on team needs, and will also have to consider immediate contribution which likely not be there. I mean, if you are a GM looking for a QB to start right away for your team, like the Cards were last season with the #1 pick Kyler Murray. its not going to happen for them. There is just no time for practices, learning the playbook, etc.

Originally posted by Heroism:
You bring up some interesting points. I hadn't considered how covid may impact draft decisions.

Originally posted by Vancouver49er:

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
We needed a playmaker bad enough that we traded a 3rd rounder last year to get one in a veteran like Sanders that could play and contribute right away. And now he is gone. And we have not replaced him.

I think one of the top three WRs in this class will be able to contribute more quickly and be better overall players than the next tier below them. If Shanalynch disagree and like one in the second tier, by all means try and get that one. But they sure as hell better land him without a team in front of them taking that targeted 2nd tier WR. Or we are left picking from the bargain aisle.

The benefit of taking a WR at 13 is that we guarantee ourselves right off the bat the WR we want (if he is still there). If we wait then we risk losing the 2nd tier WR if another team takes them first. But I just want good players that pan out...esp at 13, whether it be a WR or any other position.

The problem is there is no WR in the draft, no matter whether they are a Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs that can come in and contribute right away. Sanders came in and contributed right away because he is a NFL veteran. Every single rookie WR will not have the benefit of training camp due to Covid. How the heck will they learn the playbook? if covid had happened 1 month earlier, I am pretty sure ShanaLynch would have match the Saints and given Sanders what he wanted, if for no other reason then to have a #1 WR who already knows the system.

I don't agree - with this system I think all three can come in and contribute. They might not get voted ORY, but they can be good solid pros.

Man, I really didn't stop and think about how the shortened offseason will impact a rookie WR's assimilation to one of the most complex offenses in the league. Even without covid, I don't think any rookie WR can just jump into Kyle's offense and hit the ground running.

If we are good until week 8 without a star rookie WR, then I am going to say we probably don't need one. Especially as you say if KB and Hurd are serviceable. If you are already winning with the group of WR you have, then why screw with the chemistry. A rookie WR is just not going to come in and have an affect like a veteran and SB winner like Sanders.

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
If they are going to be a legit star WR, I'm fine waiting until Week 8 for a contribution to the offense. Playoffs and SB are what matter, and KB can get us by through Week 8, and maybe Hurd as well if he is past his injury. Then let our young star WR take over.

But slants over the middle is all fine and well, but how the heck is Ruggs going to catch those balls with no opportunity to get his timing down and his chemistry with JG? Likely no training camp this year due to covid.

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
Sanders left because we COULD NOT AFFORD HIM with the cap. You think if we could have kept him on a 2yr, 10m deal he would be gone?

A guy like Ruggs will affect the game even with only 5 targets...as the other times he is not targeted the defense has to account for him which opens things up more for Kittle and Deebo and the run game.

If we kept Sanders I'd be fine not going WR early. But since we did not, I refer a WR at 13 if their name is Jeudy/Ruggs, or one in the latter first round or early second. KB is not going to cut it all year, and God forbid Deebo gets injured. Those tough balls over the middle are slants that a guy like Ruggs takes to the house.

I'm fine with Kinlaw or Thomas at 13, or whoever else they are high on that is not a WR, but if they go WR it certainly won't be a bad thing either.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Man, I really didn't stop and think about how the shortened offseason will impact a rookie WR's assimilation to one of the most complex offenses in the league. Even without covid, I don't think any rookie WR can just jump into Kyle's offense and hit the ground running.

Yes there will be issues assimilating to the offense this year, I would take that into consideration but to adjust your pick to that I feel would be short sided.
I would not pass up the BPA or the player you would other wise take, that could come back to bite us in the ass in the long run.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Man, I really didn't stop and think about how the shortened offseason will impact a rookie WR's assimilation to one of the most complex offenses in the league. Even without covid, I don't think any rookie WR can just jump into Kyle's offense and hit the ground running.

True, but Lynch appears to be a long term planner. I don't think he will make major adjustments around the Coronavirus, although maybe a few minor ones.

Originally posted by Oilcan:

Originally posted by Heroism:
Man, I really didn't stop and think about how the shortened offseason will impact a rookie WR's assimilation to one of the most complex offenses in the league. Even without covid, I don't think any rookie WR can just jump into Kyle's offense and hit the ground running.

Yes there will be issues assimilating to the offense this year, I would take that into consideration but to adjust your pick to that I feel would be short sided.
I would not pass up the BPA or the player you would other wise take, that could come back to bite us in the ass in the long run.

The argument for picking a WR at 13 was to get an instant impact player. If a WR can't get on the same page as our QB because of coronavirus, that becomes a better argument for picking a DT (Kinlaw/Brown). It also strengthens the argument for picking an OT if one falls (long-term starter at LT is more valuable than a WR or DT, especially if the WR has a minor role in year 1).

WR with #13 and OL with #31

Picking a Dlineman is a waste of a 1st round pick IMO. Niners got Bosa,Armstead, and Ford, plus have Blair, and Jones returning from injury. Having Blair and Jones back is like drafting two Dlinemen. To me it makes no sense to use a top draft pick for a position that is already the Niners strength. Niners have the best DLine in the league, even without Defo. This would be like the Cards using their #8 overall pick for a WR and ignore their #31 ranked defense. Niners gave 3 needs, a top WR that could spread the defense to compliment Deebo, oline, and a corner. Niners can fix two of those with their 1st 2 picks.

Originally posted by Heroism:

Originally posted by krizay:

Sent this to NC a week or so ago. Since its on topic here.

https://medium.com/the-intermission/myth-or-reality-kyle-shanahan-and-the-use-of-the-x-receiver-5e42acb642a0

That's good article. There's also an interview with Kyle where Maiocco asks him if he needs or believes in a "#1 WR" and he answers no. Instead, he explains that the #1 WR is the guy running the route concept that's designed to beat what the defense is playing.

Kyle ultimately wants playmakers at every position on the field, even if that means he doesn't have one bonafide workhorse. That way he can be unpredictable with every position on his offense and take advantage of mismatches whenever he sees an opportunity.

Yup...and Niners816 and I did further research into how Kyle's offense operates and here are the targets per game starting with his historic Atlanta offense and ending in my projection for 2020 based on our personnel and near 50/50 split on run/pass.

Whomever the rookie is, will be our XWR. Kyle is all about his top 2 targets (doesn't matter if it's a TE or WR) and RB's and then even distribution after that.

Research on Average Receiving/Rushing Targets: Courtesy of Niners816
2016 Atlanta Falcons: Targets Per Game
X Julio Jones - 8.0
RB Freeman/Coleman - 6.6
Z Sanu - 5.0
TE Tamme/Hooper/Toilolo - 4.8
SWR Robinson/Hardy - 3.9
X2 Gabriel - 3.1
FB DeMarco - .63
Total Receiving - 32
Total Running - 26
Volume: 58

2019 San Francisco 49ers:
Y Kittle/Dwelley/Toilolo - 8.0
X Sanders/Pettis/Goodwin - 6.1
Z Samuel - 5.0
RB Breida/Mostert/Coleman - 4.6
SWR Bourne/James - 3.4
FB - Juszczyk - 1.5
X2 - Goodwin 1.3
Total Receiving - 30
Total Running - 31
Volume: 61

2020 Projections:
Y Kittle/ROOKIE/Dwelley - 8.0
Z Samuel - 6.5
RB McKinnon/Mostert/Coleman - 5.5
X Goodwin/ROOKIE - 5.0
SWR Bourne/Hurd/Taylor/Benjamin - 4.5
FB - Juszczyk - 1.5
Total Receiving - 31
Total Running - 29
Volume: 60

That's why I say, watch out for a huge passing game with McKinnon + Coleman if McKinnon truly is back. The RB's are massive in the passing game for Kyle...even more last year than I realized.

It's going to be Kittle, Deebo, RB's (probably in that order) and then some combination of Goddwin+XWRRookie and the others.

Originally posted by Ezekiel38:

We needed a playmaker bad enough that we traded a 3rd rounder last year to get one in a veteran like Sanders that could play and contribute right away. And now he is gone. And we have not replaced him.

Again, that's not why they made the move for Sanders. Goodwin at X was hurt all year and eventually went on I.R. Pettis was useless esp. after coming in for Sanders after he cracked his ribs. Hurd and Taylor were also on I.R. Bourne slid over to the slot so Deebo could focus on just the Z.

In short, we had no human bodies for the X. And we had to pay for it too which is why John Elway charged so much for a veteran who already wanted out of there anyhow.