MadDog49er 2020 NFL Draft Review

If Lamb fell to 25 would you have thought the trade up would be worth it?

If so you can't knock Kyle and John for trading up bc Aiyuk was rated equally with Lamb. You have to trust your board and these guys have a lot more access to these players than we do. I was a huge Lamb guy but what if his interview was trash and that knocked him down a spot?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Very fair questions, and I will go one by one.

Sometimes teams are looking for a player than fits their scheme, and bypass a more talented player in the process. Think any teams around the league would like to redo their draft from last year and select AJ Brown (my pick from last year) before the Titans at 51? The Pats clearly blew it by selecting N'Keal Harry in the first instead of Brown. That pick alone could have helped propel them into a different level.

The same goes for the 2017 NFL Draft. The 6th and 7th WRs off the board in that draft were Juju Smith-Shuster and my pick that year, Cooper Kupp. They went 62nd and 69th overall. Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross went 5th and 7th and 9th overall. These are only a tiny example of ALL teams that miss.

As for Lamb being the 3rd WR chosen, the Raiders are the Raiders. What can I say? They chose a burner in Ruggs, which I think is a bad judgment call. I am guessing the Broncos simply wanted a more polished route runner in Jeudy. The Cowboys picked at 17 and got Lamb, which was not at a need position, but way too good for them to pass.

I am not sure why Jones was passed over by so many teams. Could be scheme fit, or personality (he did have some initial struggles with his head coach at Houston last year which were ironed out). Or, maybe there is a non Power-5 team bias. Or maybe a medical concern. We will see. The talent is there. The PFF grade is certainly there. The dominance at the Senior Bowl was there. I think teams made mistakes. We will see.

I believe there is some form of bias against Baylor WRs, and I can understand after Corey Coleman. They don't run a sophisticated route tree, but I thought he solved that issue by looking great at the Senior Bowl, running a more developed route tree that week. Along with a studly combine, he should have gone much higher. Now, he is stuck with the Jets. We will see.

I think Pittman is really good, period. Just makes plays.

I love my boards, right or wrong. I will stick by them....with the JJ Watt's of the world that are selected later than my board, the Aaron Donald's and Zach Martin's. They might be silly...there are plenty of examples of those over the years, but they are always well-thought out. That is why a player like AJ Brown was my 10th overall best last year, but was selected 51st.

As for the guy who seems to "know WRs pretty damn well" also selected Pettis a few years back, and even traded up for him. So, this is the inexact science of the NFL. You are going to hit, like Samuel, but then stink it up with Pettis. You should never completely go along with a coach or GM just because they are your coach or GM, or even if they have hit before. You still have to do your own evaluation, and watch to see if it correct or incorrect down the road.

As for Williams, Ford and more, as stated before, I don't count traded draft choice for veterans, only the players selected on draft weekend.

Hope this explains my position a bit better.

-MD

I'll add to the WR comments, IMO it's one of the most dependent positions in football. Is Cooper Krupp the same player in Miami? Same with JuJu? Sure you can still get open but that s**t doesn't matter if you don't have a QB, OL, or a proper play-caller end of the day.

One guy who's regarded as a "miss" could have been a really damn good WR in another offense. It's also about having the right coaching staff to develop these guys. Perfect example is the OL coach for the Pats (since retired). I wouldn't say they've been able to develop WRs though, even with one of the best QBs and systems in the game.

Health plays a part as well. Davis had 9 games in his rookie yr then actually played pretty well in 2018, 900 yards 4 TDs with trash at QB. This yr health issues were a problem again. Harry was injured most of this yr and Ross can't seem to stay on the field either. There's always context for each player

Originally posted by TheXFactor:

Originally posted by maxsmart:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by maxsmart:
I like Kinlaw and Aiyuk ... and Jennings (for a 7th) ... I think they will get a lot from those players. But they gave up a lot for Aiyuk so he better be good.

but the 49ers do have a history of over-valuing and over-drafting players rather than waiting to pick them where they are a good value. KS fell in love with Brandon Aiyuk and traded up and I hope it turns out better than his past love affairs (see below).
Also seems like they over-drafted McKivitz and Woerner about one round too high for each.

Shanahan/Lynch have a history of falling in love and over-valuing players. For example they admitted that they would have over-drafted Reuben Foster at pick #3 overall, would have taken Aiyuk with pick #13, and McKivitz in rd 4 despite all of them being projected as later picks ....

Rather than taking players where they are a good value,
KS fell in love with Reuben Foster so he traded up => bust
KS fell in love with CJ Beathard and traded up => bust
KS loved Joe Williams so he traded up => bust
KS loved QB Kirk Cousins so he passed on QB Pat Mahomes and took Solomon Thomas instead = bust
KS fell in love with Dainty Petite so he traded up to #44 => bust
Loved Kentavius Street (with torn ACL) so traded up to 4th = bust
And several others over-drafted like Tarv Moore, Jalen Hurd, Mitch Wishnowsky, etc

Fact check: Only partially accurate. Neither Williams nor Street were traded up for.

2017 draft KS traded up to 121 for Joe Williams
No. 121: Indianapolis → San Francisco (D). Indianapolis traded a fourth-round selection (121st) to San Francisco in exchange for San Francisco's fourth- and fifth-round selections (143rd and 161st)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_NFL_Draft#cite_note-80

2018 draft they traded up to 128 for Kent Street
No. 128: Pittsburgh → San Francisco (PD). Pittsburgh traded a fourth-round selection (128th) to San Francisco in exchange for tight end Vance McDonald and San Francisco's fifth-round selection (148th)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_NFL_Draft#cite_note-98

My thoughts:
-How the heck do you know Lynch and Co didn't also love the potential of Foster?
-Many teams passed on Mahomes, and we were just switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3. Grabbing a 4-3 DE makes sense at the time.
- Calling Pettis, T-Moore, Hurd, Street and Wish a bust is so premature and ridiculous.

The fact that this team went from a pile of trash to a Super Bowl in 3 yrs is all I need to know about how they evaluate talent lol. Yes they made some poor picks, like any damn team has.

I would like to know how much of it comes down to the scouting department and how much it's Lynch/Kyle. I gotta wonder if the scouting department falls in love with the same players the HC does OR if he just bypasses all them end of the day.

Originally posted by miked1978:
If Lamb fell to 25 would you have thought the trade up would be worth it?

If so you can't knock Kyle and John for trading up bc Aiyuk was rated equally with Lamb. You have to trust your board and these guys have a lot more access to these players than we do. I was a huge Lamb guy but what if his interview was trash and that knocked him down a spot?

I know this isn't directed towards me but...

Kyle and John said they had Lamb and Aiyuk graded the same. Maddog clearly had Lamb graded MUCH higher than Aiyuk. So if you're moving up to 25 to get someone he had ranked in his top 5 at a position of need, I'm willing to bet he would be cool with it lol.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
The fact that this team went from a pile of trash to a Super Bowl in 3 yrs is all I need to know about how they evaluate talent lol. Yes they made some poor picks, like any damn team has.

I would like to know how much of it comes down to the scouting department and how much it's Lynch/Kyle. I gotta wonder if the scouting department falls in love with the same players the HC does OR if he just bypasses all them end of the day.

If we fans watched every team as close as we watch the Niners we would see a lot of really bad drafts. How else can you explain teams like Detroit, Cleveland, the Bengals, Jets and Miami that draft high every year and still fail to win. Detroit is an absolute joke. They rarely make it to the playoffs let alone a SB. The Browns and Jets are drafting better recently but still haven't made the progress that the Niners did in 3 years. It's not just who they pick in the early rounds but who they get in the later rounds and the UFAs. Those are the areas where Lynch and company have done a great job. That's where you build your depth and find the occasional diamond in the rough. The bad teams never seem to do this.

Can anyone confirm that there were or were not questions about Lamb's character? I thought I heard something about that but I can't find it anywhere.

Either way... I think Lamb and Jeudy were the two best overall WRs in this class no question. But I think what's being ignored by people who wanted either one is that they both don't fit exactly what we needed and our scheme.

What we need at WR in this scheme:

1. RAC
2. Blocking
3. Stretch the field vertically
4. Ability to take handoffs, reverses, quick screens consistently

Aiyuk was the only WR left that could do that IMO.

Lamb - 1, 2, (maybe 4)

Jeudy - 1, 3

Aiyuk - 1,2,3,4

Add to the fact that we still need help in the return game and it all makes sense. If they felt like Kinlaw was the only DT they felt comfortable with and had Aiyuk rated not equal but just even close to the top guys because he fits so well in this scheme... I think we made the right decision.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
You are right that the team was hamstrung with few picks. At the same time, I would evaluate their selections the same with 11 picks or 2 picks. My grade is simply based on, 'What did you do with those picks?" I just didn't like the Day 3 selections, and think they did not work the board right in the first round. Difference in opinion about draft strategy and player selection.

At this point all we have are opinions. Even Lynch and Kyle are only going with their opinion although they have done more research than we have. They sat you need at least 2 and sometimes 3 years to evaluate a draft and the uncertainty going into this year might make that truer tan ever.

True, that is why the book is not closed on some of the underperformers: Thomas, Pettis. However, it is shrinking by the day.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by miked1978:
If Lamb fell to 25 would you have thought the trade up would be worth it?

If so you can't knock Kyle and John for trading up bc Aiyuk was rated equally with Lamb. You have to trust your board and these guys have a lot more access to these players than we do. I was a huge Lamb guy but what if his interview was trash and that knocked him down a spot?

I know this isn't directed towards me but...

Kyle and John said they had Lamb and Aiyuk graded the same. Maddog clearly had Lamb graded MUCH higher than Aiyuk. So if you're moving up to 25 to get someone he had ranked in his top 5 at a position of need, I'm willing to bet he would be cool with it lol.

Shanahan stated he had Aiyuk and Lamb at the top of his WR board. If you have the top WR on your board sitting out there at 25, and Lamb is off the board, I don't find fault with the move. I just disagree with his eval. I don't think Aiyuk is as good as he does. For me, I am not moving from 31 to 25 and sacrificing extra draft capital to pick up WR6.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Great insight MD. Of course, I hope your wrong.

I especially thought this was insightful: Shanahan picks guys that fit his scheme. That is something to be admired. However, if defensive coordinators adjust to his schemes, the talent he has acquired is simply below average for NFL play.

I think it's the very reason we lost the Super Bowl. We have great players for our scheme, but average to below average as to pure talent. Our guards got bullied, Jimmy flopped and PM and WR core shined.

Sometimes you simply have to line up against people and beat them. No fancy system, no tricks up your sleeve. Just beat them. That is my only criticism of having specific players that you select for your system, instead of building a system that best fits your player's skills. We needed an alpha dog WR to step up to make a play late in the game, and it simply didn't happen. I think Lamb is one of those guys that makes huge plays at huge moments, something we have not had in a LONG time.

Up until they s**t the bed at the 10 min mark of the 4th , the niners were not only lining up and beating them, they were punching KC in the mouth on both sides of the ball. It was an overall choke job plain and simple, not a talent issue. And with all due respect , I think it's a bit disingenuous to say they needed alpha dog WRs to make plays late in the game. The plays were there, the guys were open and the ball was Just not delivered , whether it be poor PP or Jimmy just flat out missing guys.

Meh, I didn't read the OP and don't ever plan to, but MadDog has posted here long enough to know his MO. If the 49ers don't draft to his board or do what he would do, he will ding the team in his evaluation, even if he "misses" sometimes (see Cameron Erving, 2015).

It is what it is.

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:
Great insight MD. Of course, I hope your wrong.

I especially thought this was insightful: Shanahan picks guys that fit his scheme. That is something to be admired. However, if defensive coordinators adjust to his schemes, the talent he has acquired is simply below average for NFL play.

I think it's the very reason we lost the Super Bowl. We have great players for our scheme, but average to below average as to pure talent. Our guards got bullied, Jimmy flopped and PM and WR core shined.

Sometimes you simply have to line up against people and beat them. No fancy system, no tricks up your sleeve. Just beat them. That is my only criticism of having specific players that you select for your system, instead of building a system that best fits your player's skills. We needed an alpha dog WR to step up to make a play late in the game, and it simply didn't happen. I think Lamb is one of those guys that makes huge plays at huge moments, something we have not had in a LONG time.

Up until they s**t the bed at the 10 min mark of the 4th , the niners were not only lining up and beating them, they were punching KC in the mouth on both sides of the ball. It was an overall choke job plain and simple, not a talent issue. And with all due respect , I think it's a bit disingenuous to say they needed alpha dog WRs to make plays late in the game. The plays were there, the guys were open and the ball was Just not delivered , whether it be poor PP or Jimmy just flat out missing guys.

I politely disagree. I think a true number 1 WR makes a huge difference in the game. And, they really just needed a couple plays to ice the game. If you have a dominant WR1, it changes the passing game late in the game, especially when you need it the most. The impact of a Tyreek Hill in that 4th quarter when the Chiefs needed it was massive.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

Great insight MD. Of course, I hope your wrong.

I especially thought this was insightful: Shanahan picks guys that fit his scheme. That is something to be admired. However, if defensive coordinators adjust to his schemes, the talent he has acquired is simply below average for NFL play.

I think it's the very reason we lost the Super Bowl. We have great players for our scheme, but average to below average as to pure talent. Our guards got bullied, Jimmy flopped and PM and WR core shined.

Sometimes you simply have to line up against people and beat them. No fancy system, no tricks up your sleeve. Just beat them. That is my only criticism of having specific players that you select for your system, instead of building a system that best fits your player's skills. We needed an alpha dog WR to step up to make a play late in the game, and it simply didn't happen. I think Lamb is one of those guys that makes huge plays at huge moments, something we have not had in a LONG time.

Up until they s**t the bed at the 10 min mark of the 4th , the niners were not only lining up and beating them, they were punching KC in the mouth on both sides of the ball. It was an overall choke job plain and simple, not a talent issue. And with all due respect , I think it's a bit disingenuous to say they needed alpha dog WRs to make plays late in the game. The plays were there, the guys were open and the ball was Just not delivered , whether it be poor PP or Jimmy just flat out missing guys.

I politely disagree. I think a true number 1 WR makes a huge difference in the game. And, they really just needed a couple plays to ice the game. If you have a dominant WR1, it changes the passing game late in the game, especially when you need it the most. The impact of a Tyreek Hill in that 4th quarter when the Chiefs needed it was massive.

Ha np The impact of hill was 1. The Chiefs offense was executing their pass plays in the 4th and 2. A colossal blown coverage by Moseley on a 3rd and long in the 4th. If we look back at 2011 NFCCG, that is a great example of WRs not beating their man or getting open. That was simply not the case in the SB. Guys were beating their man and getting open and they simply were not executing. You had Sanders beating coverage for what should have been the game winning TD. You had Deebo as a favorite to win SB MVP beating coverage for what would have been a huge 4th down conversion. You had Bourne...well Bourne was running wrong route(s) in crunch time lol. But there are countless other other examples out there on tape of the WRs doing their job and simply not getting the ball. Lamb would not have made any difference if the offense is not executing.
Do you view Brown a #1, but not Deebo? I watched a lot of Brown last year with the ticket and I saw no discernible difference other than Deebo was used more in terms of sweeps etc. I am certainly no expert, but I can't see how one can be viewed a #1 but the other can't.
Hope all is well and congrats about your sons and hockey

Originally posted by FL9er:

Meh, I didn't read the OP and don't ever plan to, but MadDog has posted here long enough to know his MO. If the 49ers don't draft to his board or do what he would do, he will ding the team in his evaluation, even if he "misses" sometimes (see Cameron Erving, 2015).

It is what it is.

Kinda harsh bro don't you think? What MD does here, a lot find entertaining and enjoy it. His work and evaluations will always miss, just like every team in the NFL. When the 49ers don't draft guys that I want, I also get pissed, along with everyone else on this board who loves and follows the draft process, It's a part of being a fan and wanting your favorite team getting what you think are the best players. Nothing wrong with that.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Greetings to all!

Another draft came and went, and this was pretty unique. As a Niners' fan, it lacked some of the punch that previous drafts held, as the Niners only had 5 selections. However, there is still much to discuss about the picks, where they fit, how they project, and the impact on the team and league.

As a starting point, I do not evaluate the draft on traded picks for players. I only evaluate the selection of the draft selection when the team is on the clock. I thought the Trent Williams trade was a stroke of genius. You have to roll the dice on a player of Williams' honors. Even if he is not the Trent Williams of the past, but is a 80 percent version, giving up a third and fifth for a team that is built to win now is a really brilliant move. I hope Niners' fans do not hold him up as a superstar player. The recent big-named moves from last season did not match the hype (Ford, Alexander, Sanders). All contributed, but not at the level of previous years and teams. Buyer beware on big expectations for veteran players, especially guys over 30 years old! However, good luck. Mr. Williams!

So, here is my evaluation of the Niners' draft, based solely on their choices while the team was on the board:
#14- Javon Kinlaw- DT, South Carolina- I like Kinlaw as a prospect. He was ranked 21st overall on my board. Really terrific college player, and fills a void in the Niners's defense with the departure of Buckner. Looked excellent at the Senior Bowl until he was injured. I think he will be a really good player for the 49ers. These are all the positives. Here is my criticism. This is a salary cap move, and I am not sure this is the best strategy with draft capital. Is Kinlaw going to be as good as Buckner? I sincerely doubt he will play at that level. So, you are swapping DTs with a drop in play. I understand the salary cap is always going to be an issue. To me, this is a treading of water move for the team, which for some is just fine. Not for me, and here is why.....the Niners missed a golden opportunity to solve their biggest problem....the passing game. The team has lacked a star wide receiver for a LONG time, and had the opportunity to solve this issue and really help Jimmy G by selecting the best player on the board.......in Ceedee Lamb. The team did well in selecting Deebo last year, but Lamb is even better, and is a game changer. Best value in drafting is matching the best player on the board with team need. Never pass on a blue chipper to fill a need. The Cowboys played this smart, selecting Lamb at 17. He wasn't a huge need....but you can't pass on stars. In this case, for the Niners, Lamb was a blue chip player at the biggest position of need. Missed opportunity for me. I liked the trade down from #13 to #14, but we are going to toss those extra assets away in the next pick.

#25- Brandon Aiyuk- WR, Arizona State- I also like Aiyuk as a player. He was WR6 on my board, and had an excellent year with ASU this past season. He is terrific with the ball in his hands, especially in the return game. Shanahan obviously thought Aiyuk was worth trading up 6 slots and giving away two mid-rounders in the process. I think Aiyuk may have been on the board at 31 anyways, and there were more talented players chosen after him. I didn't like the move, and think we have a nice number three WR in Aiyuk. He is NOT on the same level as Lamb.

#153 - Colton McKivitz- OT/G- West Virginia- Tough, smart OT/G, McKivitz is an experienced player who is a bit older (24 years old) than most draftees. Although he performed admirably in the Big 12 Conference, his offseason was really not impressive. He struggled at the Senior Bowl, and then tested poorly at the combine. His SPARQ score was at the 17th percentile level. His shuttle time, which is about the surest sign of future success for OL at the next level, was dreadfully slow. My guess is that they hope he can be a swing tackle, but will have to shift him inside to guard at some point.

#190- Charlie Woerner- TE- Georgia- Woerner will have one job for the Niners....be the third TE. He is strictly a blocking TE, having very limited productivity in catching passes for the Bulldogs (34 career catches). He had 9 catches last year. He is a really good blocker, but the team traded up to a guy who ESPN did not even have a picture listed on their draft site. I am guessing Woerner would have completely slipped through the draft, but the Niners didn't want to take that chance. There were simply a LOT of better players on the board.

#217- Jauan Jennings- WR- Tennessee- Jennings was a highly productive WR for the Vols over his career. Big target, and good with the ball in his hands. But, this dude is slow....really slow. Ran a 4.72 at the combine, tested as an 8th percentile WR in his SPARQ score, and is...really, really slow. I just don't know where you put a slow, unathletic guy on the field in the NFL. Maybe they are going to stack 20 pounds on him and make him a move TE.

So, in retrospect, the team picked up a solid interior defender, a third WR who is good at the return game, a backup OT/G with limited athleticism, a blocking TE, and a super-slow WR. I just didn't like the draft at all. I guess the silver lining is that the best two picks were the first two picks.

Shanahan picks guys that fit his scheme. That is something to be admired. However, if defensive coordinators adjust to his schemes, the talent he has acquired is simply below average for NFL play.

My picks (always on the clock, so no cherry-picking)
#14- Ceedee Lamb-WR. Huge playmaker that changes the game.
#25- Josh Jones- OT- Terrific college OT, with superb PFF grades, was a superstar Senior Bowl performer. Might start Day One for the Cardinals.
#153- KJ Hill- WR- Stud slot WR. Another stud Senior Bowl performer. Do you see a trend here? If you shine during the Senior Bowl, the arrow has to go up.
#190- Markus Bailey- LB- This kid is a beast at LB. Captain, big-time gamer, All-Academic Star; has to overcome 2 ACLs. Love everything about him, and lives about 4 miles away from me.
#217- Eno Benjamin- RB- Someone has to explain to me why this kid was on the board in the 7th round. Can run, catch. Just a stud!

Question you might ask: How would the Niners fill the void of Buckner without selecting Kinlaw? Good question. The draft capital lost in the Aiyuk trade (which killed me) would have allowed the team to select a DT in the mid-rounds, and my bulleye target was Baylor DT Bravvion Roy, who I had graded alongside KJ Hill, and would have selected at number 156. Roy ended up selected at 184. I think Roy would have been a starting quality addition to the team, competing with DJ Jones right away.

Overall, I'd give the Niners a C grade. Kinlaw was my favorite value pick by the team. I just discounted them in bypassing Lamb at 14, and then going for a lesser talent in Aiyuk 11 picks later, having to throw in draft capital along the way (ouch!!!). Plus, we still need a young, stud OT for down the road because we have no idea how Williams is going to play out. He might be great, mediocre, or really mediocre this season. The last three picks were incredibly uninspiring to me.

I hope I am wrong! I hope that all five picks become multi-year All Pros. I just don't see much greatness from this class. We will see in a few years.

-MD

I pretty much agree with all of this Ceedee Lamb was the player I wanted at 13 but niners were more interested in saving money rather than fielding the best team possible. Overall it was pretty disappointing draft.

Kinlaw has to be the player buckner was and aiyuk will be forever compared to lamb.

Originally posted by susweel:

I pretty much agree with all of this Ceedee Lamb was the player I wanted at 13 but niners were more interested in saving money rather than fielding the best team possible. Overall it was pretty disappointing draft.

Kinlaw has to be the player buckner was and aiyuk will be forever compared to lamb.

The 14th and 25th picks will cost more than 13 and 31 wouldve.