Trey Lance QB NDSU

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I mean, we're talking about developing a guy. I don't think the "potential" drop between Lance and a guy with physical gifts like Mond is all that great.

Which is why skipping a QB at 12 would not surprise me.

you just don't like Lance

Mond had some great throws mixed in with a lot of WTF was that. Kid reminds me so much of Kap or even Brett Hundley.

A lot of the same issues as kap with anticipation, not reading the field properly, indecisiveness. He was also awful throwing outside the numbers. This after being a starter for 4 yrs. He's had plenty of reps to figure stuff out.

We will see, without question they should be in play for one of the top QBs after this FA.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I mean, we're talking about developing a guy. I don't think the "potential" drop between Lance and a guy with physical gifts like Mond is all that great.

Which is why skipping a QB at 12 would not surprise me.

you just don't like Lance

Mond had some great throws mixed in with a lot of WTF was that. Kid reminds me so much of Kap or even Brett Hundley.

A lot of the same issues as kap with anticipation, not reading the field properly, indecisiveness. He was also awful throwing outside the numbers. This after being a starter for 4 yrs. He's had plenty of reps to figure stuff out.

We will see, without question they should be in play for one of the top QBs after this FA.

I've only done a couple of games, but I've not seen that indecisiveness, I'm just seeing a poor offense without many good options in a play.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
I've been thinking about this, I like Mond's arm strength, release and accuracy. I wouldn't hate it, but Mond is a Senior, he's further along in his development. I think Lance's ceiling is much higher.

Though I do take the point that we could get a much better player at 12 as opposed to when Mond would go.

For me I would have to have a player heavily graded over the QB, at the moment I think that's only Pitts for me.

agreed! Kid has had plenty of snaps to figure it out by now. We got lance starting as a 19 yr old running a legit pro-style offense. He's got his warts much like all these QBs, but I think he's got the stuff you want and can mold into today's NFL QB. Him or fields for me (kinda leaning more toward Lance as we get closer to the draft).

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I mean, we're talking about developing a guy. I don't think the "potential" drop between Lance and a guy with physical gifts like Mond is all that great.

Which is why skipping a QB at 12 would not surprise me.

you just don't like Lance

Mond had some great throws mixed in with a lot of WTF was that. Kid reminds me so much of Kap or even Brett Hundley.

A lot of the same issues as kap with anticipation, not reading the field properly, indecisiveness. He was also awful throwing outside the numbers. This after being a starter for 4 yrs. He's had plenty of reps to figure stuff out.

We will see, without question they should be in play for one of the top QBs after this FA.

Eh, I don't know if it's I don't like Lance. I just haven't seen some things from him that I feel are necessary for an NFL QB (things that I HAVE seen from Mond, Jones and Fields). Things like while under pressure making a split second switch to an uncovered WR and — off platform — flinging it in just before getting crushed. All the impressive plays (aside from fly routes) I've seen from Lance have been deliberate, "wait for it" type stuff where he moves to create a lane. Plays where he's afforded protection to throw on his terms instead of knifing through a congested pocket.

But just because I haven't seen Lance do it doesn't mean he can't (nor does it mean he hasn't. I haven't watched all his games yet). So far, in the games I've seen he's been a "victim" of the immense talent differential between his team and most of his competition.

Side note, I disagree that Kap was always awful outside the numbers. In particular, he was one of the best in the league at corner routes.

https://www.pff.com/news/qbs-in-focus-by-route

But regardless, the Kap/Mond comparison doesn't hold too water IMHO. Mond is a much better passer than Kap was coming out, especially the use of touch. I think the comparison starts and ends with Mond's close stance in the pocket and his body shape. Otherwise I'm not seeing it.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Eh, I don't know if it's I don't like Lance. I just haven't seen some things from him that I feel are necessary for an NFL QB (things that I HAVE seen from Mond, Jones and Fields). Things like while under pressure making a split second switch to an uncovered WR and — off platform — flinging it in just before getting crushed. All the impressive plays (aside from fly routes) I've seen from Lance have been deliberate, "wait for it" type stuff where he moves to create a lane. Plays where he's afforded protection to throw on his terms instead of knifing through a congested pocket.

But just because I haven't seen Lance do it doesn't mean he can't (nor does it mean he hasn't. I haven't watched all his games yet). So far, in the games I've seen he's been a "victim" of the immense talent differential between his team and most of his competition.

Side note, I disagree that Kap was always awful outside the numbers. In particular, he was one of the best in the league at corner routes.

https://www.pff.com/news/qbs-in-focus-by-route

But regardless, the Kap/Mond comparison doesn't hold too water IMHO. Mond is a much better passer than Kap was coming out, especially the use of touch. I think the comparison starts and ends with Mond's close stance in the pocket and his body shape. Otherwise I'm not seeing it.

Mond is poor at throwing outside the numbers

completed 35 percent on intermediate throws outside the numbers and 26 percent of deep throws outside numbers.

literally that's who Lance Zierlein on his podcast the other day was comping him too, Kap lol. I'll take his word over yours there both are stiff throwing the ball and I can't stand that release. He's also about 30lbs smaller than Kap.

Oh wait, you're saying MOND was awful outside the numbers. Perhaps that's true. But the last game I watched he threw back to back perfect, down field back-shoulder fades, and in both instances his WR failed to make a basic NFL play all legitimate NFL WRs should make.

But I have more to watch, so maybe you're right on that.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I mean, we're talking about developing a guy. I don't think the "potential" drop between Lance and a guy with physical gifts like Mond is all that great.

Which is why skipping a QB at 12 would not surprise me.

you just don't like Lance

Mond had some great throws mixed in with a lot of WTF was that. Kid reminds me so much of Kap or even Brett Hundley.

A lot of the same issues as kap with anticipation, not reading the field properly, indecisiveness. He was also awful throwing outside the numbers. This after being a starter for 4 yrs. He's had plenty of reps to figure stuff out.

We will see, without question they should be in play for one of the top QBs after this FA.

DeShone Kizer IMO.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Eh, I don't know if it's I don't like Lance. I just haven't seen some things from him that I feel are necessary for an NFL QB (things that I HAVE seen from Mond, Jones and Fields). Things like while under pressure making a split second switch to an uncovered WR and — off platform — flinging it in just before getting crushed. All the impressive plays (aside from fly routes) I've seen from Lance have been deliberate, "wait for it" type stuff where he moves to create a lane. Plays where he's afforded protection to throw on his terms instead of knifing through a congested pocket.

But just because I haven't seen Lance do it doesn't mean he can't (nor does it mean he hasn't. I haven't watched all his games yet). So far, in the games I've seen he's been a "victim" of the immense talent differential between his team and most of his competition.

Side note, I disagree that Kap was always awful outside the numbers. In particular, he was one of the best in the league at corner routes.

https://www.pff.com/news/qbs-in-focus-by-route

But regardless, the Kap/Mond comparison doesn't hold too water IMHO. Mond is a much better passer than Kap was coming out, especially the use of touch. I think the comparison starts and ends with Mond's close stance in the pocket and his body shape. Otherwise I'm not seeing it.

Mond is poor at throwing outside the numbers

completed 35 percent on intermediate throws outside the numbers and 26 percent of deep throws outside numbers.

literally that's who Lance Zierlein on his podcast the other day was comping him too, Kap lol. I'll take his word over yours there both are stiff throwing the ball and I can't stand that release. He's also about 30lbs smaller than Kap.

Yes, I realized that I misunderstood you.

However, some of that is due to poor WRs. The last game I watched had a few great throws outside that were completely fails by the receiver.

More to watch, but I think simply looking at base numbers is the wrong way to go about evaluating. I'd be more interested in his on target numbers rather than completion percentage. That tells much more information (but still not as much as film).

And as for Lance, as I said, I've yet to see those split second decisions under pressure while off-platform. Again, not his fault that he doesn't have the opportunity to do it due to superior talent on his team, but it is something that gives a lot of information about if a QB can play in the NFL.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Yes, I realized that I misunderstood you.

However, some of that is due to poor WRs. The last game I watched had a few great throws outside that were completely fails by the receiver.

More to watch, but I think simply looking at base numbers is the wrong way to go about evaluating. I'd be more interested in his on target numbers rather than completion percentage. That tells much more information (but still not as much as film).

And as for Lance, as I said, I've yet to see those split second decisions under pressure while off-platform. Again, not his fault that he doesn't have the opportunity to do it due to superior talent on his team, but it is something that gives a lot of information about if a QB can play in the NFL.

You're a PFF guy this is from his scout profile...

Kellen Mond was a popular preseason breakout candidate in 2019 and 2020 because of his tools and Jimbo Fisher's offense. While 2020 proved to be his best season yet, it hardly qualified as a breakout — his percentage of throws charted as accurate actually went down to a mediocre 53.4%, and it wasn't as if he was attacking more down the field. Mond finished with only 12 big-time throws all year. It's difficult to say if we actually saw any progression from Mond or if he just played behind the best offensive line of his career.

here's a couple weakness

-Inconsistent with anticipation and timing over the middle of the field.
-Average accuracy at best, and his numbers haven't seen improvement.
-So few special throws down the field on tape. He rarely attacked deep.

His ADJUSTED comp .% (which takes in drops, spikes, throwaways, Batted Balls ,Balls disrupted by a QB hit etc) was 70.8% good for 54th in college football this past yr.

Originally posted by Rathof44:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
I mean, we're talking about developing a guy. I don't think the "potential" drop between Lance and a guy with physical gifts like Mond is all that great.

Which is why skipping a QB at 12 would not surprise me.

you just don't like Lance

Mond had some great throws mixed in with a lot of WTF was that. Kid reminds me so much of Kap or even Brett Hundley.

A lot of the same issues as kap with anticipation, not reading the field properly, indecisiveness. He was also awful throwing outside the numbers. This after being a starter for 4 yrs. He's had plenty of reps to figure stuff out.

We will see, without question they should be in play for one of the top QBs after this FA.

DeShone Kizer IMO.

I can see why you'd make the comparison. Kizer had a much wider base in college. Thicker built. Not as fast a release.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Yes, I realized that I misunderstood you.

However, some of that is due to poor WRs. The last game I watched had a few great throws outside that were completely fails by the receiver.

More to watch, but I think simply looking at base numbers is the wrong way to go about evaluating. I'd be more interested in his on target numbers rather than completion percentage. That tells much more information (but still not as much as film).

And as for Lance, as I said, I've yet to see those split second decisions under pressure while off-platform. Again, not his fault that he doesn't have the opportunity to do it due to superior talent on his team, but it is something that gives a lot of information about if a QB can play in the NFL.

You're a PFF guy this is from his scout profile...

Kellen Mond was a popular preseason breakout candidate in 2019 and 2020 because of his tools and Jimbo Fisher's offense. While 2020 proved to be his best season yet, it hardly qualified as a breakout — his percentage of throws charted as accurate actually went down to a mediocre 53.4%, and it wasn't as if he was attacking more down the field. Mond finished with only 12 big-time throws all year. It's difficult to say if we actually saw any progression from Mond or if he just played behind the best offensive line of his career.

here's a couple weakness

-Inconsistent with anticipation and timing over the middle of the field.
-Average accuracy at best, and his numbers haven't seen improvement.
-So few special throws down the field on tape. He rarely attacked deep.

His ADJUSTED comp .% (which takes in drops, spikes, throwaways, Batted Balls ,Balls disrupted by a QB hit etc) was 70.8% good for 54th in college football this past yr.

That's why he is tier 2.

But the only guys I feel comfortable trading up for are Fields and Wilson. I'm okay with Jones at 12. Hesitant with Lance at 12 (because the aforementioned concern: not seen him do quick reaction reads/throws in a congested pocket), but if he's there you pull the trigger. 12 is an okay spot to get such a talented developmental QB.

As for Mond, clearly inconsistent. But he clearly has some talent and can certainly make plays. Like this for example:



Another developmental project. The question is draft value. It's easier to have a high adjusted completion percentage when you're throwing from a clean pocket all day and have talent around you.

Wilson, Fields and Jones are less of projections than Lance and Mond. So while there's a chance for greatness with Lance, he's more of a risk IMHO than the first three mentioned. Mond is also a risk but he will come with less risk because his draft status won't be so high.

^^ That's a great post. It's why I don't want to trade up for Lance, it's about risk/reward and opportunity cost.

I'm happy at #12 though (unless Pitts is there). Everything I've seen about this kid screams that he'll work his @ss off, marry that with the talent and fact that he has had a taste of our scheme and verbiage and I'm pretty confident.

I have seen him make off platform under pressure throws though, not too much tight window though.

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
^^ That's a great post. It's why I don't want to trade up for Lance, it's about risk/reward and opportunity cost.

I'm happy at #12 though (unless Pitts is there). Everything I've seen about this kid screams that he'll work his @ss off, marry that with the talent and fact that he has had a taste of our scheme and verbiage and I'm pretty confident.

I have seen him make off platform under pressure throws though, not too much tight window though.

Another issue with trading up for Lance is WHERE you have to trade up. I think teams in the 6-7 range might take a chance on his potential, which means you'd have to jump way up. Maybe even Atlanta would consider it.

But if Lance is sitting there at 10, that's a lot less you're risking.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by 49erBigMac:
^^ That's a great post. It's why I don't want to trade up for Lance, it's about risk/reward and opportunity cost.

I'm happy at #12 though (unless Pitts is there). Everything I've seen about this kid screams that he'll work his @ss off, marry that with the talent and fact that he has had a taste of our scheme and verbiage and I'm pretty confident.

I have seen him make off platform under pressure throws though, not too much tight window though.

Another issue with trading up for Lance is WHERE you have to trade up. I think teams in the 6-7 range might take a chance on his potential, which means you'd have to jump way up. Maybe even Atlanta would consider it.

But if Lance is sitting there at 10, that's a lot less you're risking.

Yeah, but at that point you just have a pick you're willing to part with and you don't go higher.

Whether it's Lance or Wilson or someone else, the Niners are now clear to go QB with the 1st pick. They have upgraded the line to protect Jimmy this year but after signing Trent they have to be looking ahead. Jimmy has 2 years left on his contract and it looks like he'll be the starter for sure in 2021. They have Bosa, Kittle and Warner to resign in the next couple of years so they need a cheaper QB. They need to draft one thus year and maybe another one next year depending on how the pick works out.